⚾ Brewers vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, June 21

Two National League division leaders do battle in the final game of a three-game series as the Atlanta Braves look to sweep the Milwaukee Brewers at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), with the starting pitching matchup featuring Robert Gasser and Bryce Elder. The Braves are -135 betting favorites.

My Brewers vs. Braves prediction eschews a moneyline play while expecting a slugfest in this series finale. That means I am fading Elder’s chances of recording a high strikeout total, and am backing a Milwaukee slugger to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Brewers vs. Braves picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.33 units

🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Braves?

Though I’m less confident about picking a side than the total, Milwaukee’s 1-4 record in his five starts tips the scale in Atlanta’s favor for me.

Score prediction: Brewers 6, Braves 5

💰 Brewers vs. Braves prediction & best bet

Over 8.5 (-120)

Entering this series, Atlanta had lost six of seven games while its starting pitchers recorded an 8.48 ERA over that span. The Braves snapped a three-game losing streak on Friday with a dominant outing and quality start from Martin Perez, but I expect Milwaukee’s bats to heat up when not facing a soft-tossing southpaw.

Gasser has made three starts against top-7 offenses, and faced two bottom-10 lineups. Against the top-7 lineups, he pitched to an 8.10 ERA with five home runs allowed and a 14:8 K:BB ratio in 13 ⅓ innings.

🔥 Best Brewers vs. Braves player prop bet

Bryce Elder Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125)

Bryce Elder has averaged five innings pitched over his last four starts. In that span, he has a 7.20 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and just 13 strikeouts to go along with six walks. 

Elder now has a 7.41 K/9 rate on the season, which is on pace to decrease for the third straight season, and be his second-worst of his five-year career.

Elder has a low ceiling for strikeouts when facing a Brewers lineup that strikes out at the league’s seventh-lowest rate (20.7%), which lowers to 20.4% and the fourth-lowest rate against right-handed pitching.

I expect the Brewers lineup which ranks in the top four in both wOBA and on-base percentage against righties to hang some crooked numbers against Elder and shorten his outing considerably.

💣 Brewers vs. Braves home run prediction

Brice Turang to hit a home run (+680)

Brice Turang is the only current Brewers hitter to ever go deep off of Bryce Elder, with one of his four hits in 10 at-bats leaving the yard.

To start the week, Turang was on pace for 26 home runs and 103 RBI, which would shatter his previous career-highs of 18 homers and 81 RBI. Turang’s four home runs this month have already matched his season-high for a month in April, and his .507 slugging percentage is a vast improvement from the .363 slugging percentage he posted in May.

After allowing just two home runs over his first even starts spanning 43 innings, Elder has now allowed at least one home run in five of six starts, including a season-high two in his last outing.

🚀 Brewers vs. Braves same-game parlay

If the Over is to cash, then Elder going Under his projected strikeout total and Turang recording two-plus hits/runs/RBI would certainly help the cause. I swapped Turang's home run prop for this more conservative third leg of the same-game parlay, as he has gone Over this projected total in nine of 17 games this month.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Brewers vs. Braves: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I was torn on which team to back on the moneyline given certain contradicting trends. On one hand, Milwaukee is just 1-4 in Gasser's five starts. But on the other hand, the Brewers have been one of MLB's best teams since the start of 2023 against teams over .500.

In each of the last three years, Milwaukee has finished with the third, second, and third-best records against winning teams, and its overall winning percentage in such games is the best in MLB. So while I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Brewers given those trends, the Over is my more preferred play.

📊 Live Brewers vs. Braves odds

The Brewers seem to be popular among the betting public and sharps, as Atlanta has been bet down from a -145 moneyline favorite to -135 at BetMGM. There is also some big reverse line movement at DraftKings, who lowered from -143 to -131 despite the Braves receiving 65% of the early wagers.

The total is evenly split between 8.5 and 9.0, with DraftKings being one of the only top sports betting sites that has bounced back and forth between the two numbers. At DraftKings, the betting splits are 2/1 in favor of the Under.

📈 Brewers vs. Braves betting trends

🚑 Brewers vs. Braves injuries

📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Braves

• Date: Sunday, June 21
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Brewers starter: Robert Gasser (0-3, 4.88 ERA)
• Braves starter: Bryce Elder (5-4, 3.15 ERA)