⚾ Braves vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, April 19

The Atlanta Braves look to widen the largest first-place gap in any of MLB's six divisions in a potential sweep opportunity of their National League East rival Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies host the Braves from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, with first pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (Peacock). The pitching matchup is between Grant Holmes and Andrew Painter, and the Phillies are a -120 betting favorite.

My Braves vs. Phillies prediction backs the home favorite over the first five innings, as Philadelphia will have an advantage, with the Braves never having faced Painter. Along with my game prediction, my MLB picks include Trea Turner to ignite the Phillies’ offense, with another veteran offering strong value to go yard.

⚾ Braves vs. Phillies picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.70 units

🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Phillies?

Atlanta is 2-0 in Holmes’ two road starts and 0-2 when he pitches at Truist Park, but I am bucking those trends and expecting a desperate Phillies team to salvage the series finale.

Score prediction: Phillies 6, Braves 5

💰 Braves vs. Phillies prediction & best bet

The Phillies have the fifth-shortest odds to win the World Series.

Phillies first five innings ML (-122)

While Holmes has had better success on the road than at home, Phillies rookie Andrew Painter is also in his more preferred split. The righty has pitched to a 1.74 ERA and .194 OBA through two starts at Citizens Bank Park, while not allowing a home run through 10⅓ innings.

Keeping the ball in the yard is paramount when facing a Braves team that has hit the third-most home runs in the majors. 

Painter not only ranks in the 91st percentile in xERA, but he has also induced soft contact, with an 87th percentile barrel rate and hard-hit rate in the 92nd percentile. 

🔥 Best Braves vs. Phillies player prop bet

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Trea Turner Over 0.5 runs (+105)

Grant Holmes has been tough on left-handed batters this season, allowing a .121/.250/.212 slash line. That is why I am keen on Trea Turner batting from the right side, especially since 75% of the extra-base hits Holmes has allowed have come from righties.

Turner has averaged more than 96 runs over the last four seasons, while reaching the 100-run plateau twice in that span. I also expect him to use his legs as a weapon more, as he is coming off just his second stolen base in as many chances last night. 

Turner is on pace for another season with a BABIP of .310 or better (which he has finished with every year since his rookie year), and these are great odds for him to cross the plate in a prime-time matchup.

💣 Braves vs. Phillies home run prediction

Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+330)

Since the start of the 2022 season, Kyle Schwarber has 23 multi-homer games, more than anyone not named Aaron Judge. 

Schwarber is coming off a career-high 56 home runs last year, and tortured Braves pitching, even smashing four home runs in one game. He went deep once in every 10.8 at-bats last season which trailed only Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge.

Schwarber remains a great bet to hit a home run despite facing a hurler who has allowed just a .212 slugging percentage to left-handed batters, thanks to elite launch angle sweet spot (91st percentile) and barrel rates (99th percentile).

🚀 Braves vs. Phillies same-game parlay

One could argue that the key to cashing this entire same-game parlay is by Kyle Schwarber going yard, as that would directly impact Philadelphia's chances of winning, or leading early. The Phillies are 5-0 in games where Schwarber has homered this season, and it would be an added bonus if he were to go deep when Turner is on the basepaths.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Braves vs. Phillies: MLB strategy

No matter how hot a team is, and Atlanta is one of the hottest being tied for the longest active winning streak (four games), it is hard to sweep an opponent on the road. As usual, I am backing my game prediction and top player prop with one unit of my bankroll, while limiting my home run prop wager to 0.25 units (even though I cashed a +780 home run wager in one of my three game predictions on Saturday). But

I find more value in Philadelphia's first five innings moneyline odds than its full-game odds (-120) since weird things tend to happen late in Phillies games. Case in point, Philadelphia's bullpen ranks 18th in ERA, but somehow leads the majors in xERA.

It also pays to shop around for home run odds, as some of the best sports betting apps have Schwarber's home run odds at +265 (carrying a 27.40% implied probability) or shorter. 

📊 Live Braves vs. Phillies odds

While the rest of the market has the Phillies as a -120 moneyline favorite, FanDuel is the only one that differs slightly at -122. But Atlanta won as a bigger underdog yesterday, and is sure to again be a popular play after having built a massive five-game lead in the NL East this early. 

All of the best MLB betting sites are also in unison with an O/U of 8.0, and the Over is juiced as high as -115 (53.49% implied odds) at BetMGM. But my guess is that the total ticks down to 7.5 at some of the best sports betting sites before first pitch, as it is expected to be a cold night with temperatures in the low 40s following a rainy day in Philadelphia. 

📈 Braves vs. Phillies betting trends

🚑 Braves vs. Phillies injuries

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Phillies

• Date: Sunday, April 19
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
• Streaming: Peacock
• Braves starter: Grant Holmes (1-1, 3.32 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Andrew Painter (1-0, 3.77 ERA)