⚾ Blue Jays vs. Twins Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, May 3

The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins kick off Sunday’s MLB action with an early 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch from Target Field in Minneapolis (Peacock). Trey Yesavage makes his second start of the season for the Blue Jays, who aim for a series win after taking two of the first three games. He's opposed by Joe Ryan, as this game is a virtual pick'em according to the oddsmakers.

My Blue Jays vs. Twins prediction expects a low-scoring pitcher’s duel early. Blue Jays slugger Daulton Varsho makes my MLB picks as my top value home run prop wager.

⚾ Blue Jays vs. Twins picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.74 units

🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Twins?

Minnesota has been outscored 19-10 while going 0-3 in Joe Ryan’s last three starts. But he also earned the victory in a 7-4 win in early April against the Blue Jays, and that’s why I’m backing him to snap the losing streak today.

Score prediction: Twins 4, Blue Jays 3

💰 Blue Jays vs. Twins prediction & best bet

First five innings Under 4.5 (-130)

Trey Yesavage has a chance to be a special pitcher for Toronto, as evidenced by his 3.58 ERA and 3-1 record in six postseason appearances as a rookie last year. In his season debut last week, Yesavage pumped the strike zone with 50 of 74 pitches going for strikes, while allowing just three hard-hit balls.

Meanwhile, Joe Ryan used primarily a four-seam fastball, which he threw 41% of the time to turn in a quality start and hold the Blue Jays to two runs on two hits over seven innings earlier this season.

🔥 Best Blue Jays vs. Twins player prop bet

Joe Ryan Under 5.5 strikeouts (-135)

Ryan recorded six or fewer strikeouts in five of six April starts, while his five strikeouts against Toronto tied his second-lowest of the season.

Even after losing Bo Bichette in the offseason and having other contact-prone hitters on the IL, the Blue Jays have still struck out at an MLB-best 17.7% rate (no other team has struck out fewer than 19% of the time).

Toronto’s strikeout rate does tick up slightly from 17.7% overall to 18.3% against right-handed pitching, but a BABIP in that split that ranks in the top half of the league should help escalate Ryan’s pitch count and lead to a shorter outing. And Ryan’s pitch count has lowered in three straight starts, so perhaps he gets another quick hook with a day off tomorrow and an opportunity to rest the bullpen.

💣 Blue Jays vs. Twins home run prediction

Daulton Varsho to hit a home run (+490)

Daulton Varsho is one of three Blue Jays on the 40-man roster to have homered in their career off of Joe Ryan. Varsho may have posted just two hits in 10 at-bats overall against the righty, but he's just a career .227 hitter who still provides pop with 20-plus home runs in three of the last four seasons.

Varsho’s 24.1% fly ball rate is on pace to be his lowest since his first season in 2020. But Target Field’s dimensions have worked well for the lefty, who has hit three home runs in eight career games there. The most encouraging sign is that he's cut his strikeout rate from 28.4% last year to 17.5% this year.

🚀 Blue Jays vs. Twins same-game parlay

Backing Varsho to hit a home run would directly conflict with the chances of the first five innings Under cashing, unless he homers late in the game off Twins relievers. Therefore, I'm buying into his better contact rate and expecting him to simply record a base hit as the third leg of this same-game parlay, which he's done in five of the previous six games.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Blue Jays vs. Twins: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

After throwing 74 pitches in an efficient season debut, I wouldn't expect Toronto's coaching staff to expect much more out of Yesavage in just his second start. With him not likely to pitch much more than five innings, I'm limiting my Blue Jays vs. Twins best bet to the first half of the game, as I don't trust a Blue Jays bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA as much as Yesavage.

The best MLB betting sites respect the Blue Jays' MLB-best strikeout rate, but I wouldn't play anything steeper than -140 to back the Under on Ryan's 5.5 strikeouts. At that point, I'd dip into the alternate strikeout total of Under 4.5 for a better price.

📊 Live Blue Jays vs. Twins odds

The Blue Jays and Twins have identical -110 moneyline odds at Caesars, bet365, and DraftKings. But the interesting thing is Toronto is favored at BetMGM, moving from an opening number of -110 to -115, while Minnesota opened as the -112 betting favorite and the line hasn't budged.

Based on the Blue Jays attracting 65% of the early wagers and being the much hotter team over the last 10 games, I suspected they'd be slight favorites at most of the best sports betting sites.

The O/U is at 8 runs everywhere except bet365, which differs from the rest of the market at 8.5. The Over is juiced to -115 (53.49% implied odds) at the best sports betting apps, and that hasn't deterred bettors from siding with the Over through 54% of the early wagers.

📈 Blue Jays vs. Twins betting trends

🚑 Blue Jays vs. Twins injuries

📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Twins

• Date: Sunday, May 3
• First pitch: 12:35 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Target Field (Minneapolis)
• Streaming: Peacock
• Blue Jays starter: Trey Yesavage (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Twins starter: Joe Ryan (2-3, 3.76 ERA)