Best MLB Player Props Today Wednesday, Oct. 1: Best Bets for Wild-Card Round

After favorites and Unders cashed in three of yesterday’s four wild-card series, all of the losing teams now face elimination as we dive into our best MLB player props today. 

My MLB picks back Yoshinobu Yamamoto to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to a victory and help increase their World Series odds. My other best plays tackle every other game on Wednesday’s slate and offer a mix of pitcher and batter props.

⚾ Best MLB player props today

MLB player prop bets for Wild-Card Round; odds subject to change.

• Tanner Bibee Under 3.5 hits allowed (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Carlos Rodon Over 15.5 outs recorded (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a win (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Mookie Betts Over 0.5 RBI (+165 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

💰 Best MLB prop bets for Oct. 1

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ Tanner Bibee Under 3.5 hits allowed (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

Guardians righty Tanner Bibee is coming off a September where he went 3-0 with a 1.30 ERA over 27 2/3 innings. He also pitched to a 26:5 K:BB ratio, 0.76 WHIP, and .436 opponents’ OPS.

Bibee’s O/U for outs recorded is 14.5, lower than it would be in a regular-season start, suggesting he may be yanked at the first sign of trouble. But while he is toeing the rubber, he should limit a Tigers lineup that batted .199 against breaking pitches (29th) while slugging .354 (24th) with a minus-26 run value (25th) in that split. 

A $10 winning wager through DraftKings’ +100 odds would double my investment in profits.

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⬆️ Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Padres first baseman Luis Arraez entered the playoffs on a 15-game hitting streak and led the National League with 181 hits. He is too good a batter to go hitless in back-to-back games, and I expect him to positively regress to the numbers he put up in September (.352/.396/.432 slash line with a 138 wRC+).

I am adding Arraez’s run props in this wager, as he bats in front of guys like Jackson Merrill, who had a .626 slugging percentage and team-leading 160 wRC+ last month.

If Arraez accumulates a combination of at least two hits, runs, and RBI, a $10 winning wager at -115 odds and a 53.49% implied probability would pay out $8.70 in profits.

⬆️ Carlos Rodon Over 15.5 outs recorded (+116) ⭐⭐⭐

Yankees manager Aaron Boone’s nightmare came true yesterday, as Max Fried turned in a heroic 6 1/3 scoreless innings on 102 pitches, only to see a 1-0 lead eviscerated instantly when Luke Weaver could not record an out.

Knowing he will be ridiculed for his bullpen employment, I expect him to give Carlos Rodon a similar leash to the one he gave Fried last night. 

Boston’s right-handed batters when facing southpaws ranked fourth in slugging against fastballs but 12th against breaking pitches and 15th against changeups and splitters. And Rodon’s .141 opponents’ average against his breaking pitches was the fourth-lowest among all pitchers who had a minimum of 140 plate appearances against that pitch.

I expect Rodon to effectively change speeds and stay away from his fastball against righties, and for him to record 18-plus outs for the first time in his fourth start against the Red Sox this season. 

Through FanDuel’s +116 odds, a $10 winning wager would return $11.60 in profits if Rodon pitches at least 5 2/3 innings.

My best Red Sox vs. Yankee player props break down the entire game and feature a couple more bonus plays for Game 2 of the series.

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🔥 Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a win (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Dodgers won five of the six regular-season meetings against the Reds while scoring at least five runs in each victory. And this is a big mismatch in talent, as Cincinnati ranked 14th in runs per game and tied for 23rd in wRC+, while Los Angeles ranked in the top two in each of those categories.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto won NL Pitcher of the Month honors for September after pitching to a 0.67 ERA over 27 innings spanning four starts. He also had an eye-popping 0.67 WHIP and 34:11 K:BB ratio in that span. 

This wager is a great way to mitigate Los Angeles’ steep -270 moneyline odds, which carry a a 72.97% implied probability that the club will end this series tonight. If Yamamoto earns the victory in a Dodgers win, a $10 wager would net $12 in profits.

Our Josh Goldberg is also backing Yamamoto in his Reds vs. Dodgers player props.

⬆️ Mookie Betts Over 0.5 RBI (+165) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Dodgers face Reds righty Zack Littell in Game 2. It will be interesting to see how much Littell has left in the tank after his ERA worsened in each consecutive month from May to September, with his 4.91 ERA over the last 30 days ranking as his second-worst in a month this season.

Littell has reverse splits with worse numbers in every slash line category against right-handed batters than lefties. That is why I am targeting Mookie Betts to drive in a run, especially when batting behind Shohei Ohtani and his 145 runs scored in the regular season.

The best odds for this prop are the +165 found at FanDuel at a 37.74% implied probability. If Betts does drive in a run, my $10 wager would result in $16.50 in profits.

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