⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, March 30
As I more or less expected, it was a bit of a rough first week for my MLB home run picks, as the combination of fresh pitching staffs and hitters getting adjusted led to a handful of star players disappointing at the plate. However, my home run predictions today continue to trust the process, and I'm backing four stars to each drill their first bomb of the season.
We have picks from games spanning nearly the entire slate, as we begin with the 6:35 p.m. ET showdown at Camden Yards - one of baseball's most homer-friendly ballparks - and end with the 10:10 p.m. ET showdown between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks, and I look to exploit a favorable pitching matchup for an NL West star.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds March 30
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward home run (+400 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 1.65u | Hit 36 homers in 2025 |
| Nick Kurtz home run (+326 via DraftKings) | 0.33u β 1.41u | Potential HR king still looking for first bomb |
| Juan Soto home run (+425 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 1.73u | Hits dropping, home runs will follow |
| Corbin Carroll home run (+425 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 1.73u | Swinging the bat faster than ever before |
Total wagered: 1.33 units | Max profit: 5.19 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+425)
Corbin Carroll bounced back in a big way last year, swatting a career-high 31 homers. I'm slightly worried about how the broken hamate he suffered in spring training is affecting his power output, but there are some reasons for optimism.
Carroll is swinging the bat faster than ever, as he owns a 93rd percentile bat speed through the first week. If he continues to generate that much bat speed, the power will follow. He owns a great home run projection today, and we're getting 40% +EV on this bet as a result. I'd play this to odds as short as +365.
📡 SBR Edge: Verlander presents favorable matchup
Justin Verlander takes the mound for the Tigers, and he appears due for some regression in the home run department this year. He was fortunate last season to allow only 0.95 home runs per nine innings, and I expect that number to normalize in a hurry, starting tonight.
π₯ More home run picks today
Taylor Ward to hit a home run (+400)
Taylor Ward hit a career-high 36 home runs last season for the Los Angeles Angels, but he's been awful through the first three games with the Baltimore Orioles. But it's just a matter of time before he starts hitting the ball out of Camden Yards, which was the second-most homer-friendly ballpark in the league last season.
Based on Ward's home run projection today, we're getting nearly 30% +EV on this bet. We don't have a ton of wiggle room on this one, as I'd play it to odds as short as +380, but most of our best sports betting sites are offering very competitive prices.
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+425)
Juan Soto owns the highest home run projection of any player today, as he's expected to destroy Kyle Leahy and the St. Louis Cardinals. Much like the other players I'm betting on today, Soto is looking for his first big fly of the season. I'm not worried, though, as he drilled a career-high 43 homers last year after hitting 41 the year prior.
This is one of the preseason favorites to lead MLB in home runs, so it's just a matter of time before he gets hot. Based on his projection today, we're getting better than 75% +EV on this bet. I'd play this all the way down to +275, which provides us with plenty of wiggle room.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying all four of my home run bets together at FanDuel and putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units). The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put roughly 0.5 units on them and make a small fortune, but these +40325 odds represent just a 0.25% implied probability that this hits. That is a 1 in 400 chance.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Taylor Ward (+400)
- Nick Kurtz (+285)
- Juan Soto (+400)
- Corbin Carroll (+320)
Best odds: +40325 via FanDuel (0.08u -> 32.34u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-28 | -6.94 units β | -41.4% β |
| Home run picks | 1-13 | -3.22 units β | -73.9% β |
| Parlays | 1-5 | +0.82 units β | +171.8% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on all my of home run bets that feature a player with a home run projection of 0.3 or better, and on odds that provide us with 30% +EV or better.
If the player's projection is less than 0.3 but the EV is sky-high, or if the projection is very high while the EV isn't especially enticing, I will limit my wager to $25, or 0.2 units.
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