⚾ MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Sunday, June 21
With games being played at two of Major League Baseball’s most hitter friendly ballparks in Coors Field and Sutter Health Park, I had to include sluggers from those games in my best home run predictions today.
Though I’m backing two visiting sluggers from the Pirates and Angels in those games, I add a third MLB home run pick on one of the sport’s hottest sluggers who is playing at home, Pete Crow-Armstrong. Lastly, Willson Contreras has quietly put up some of the sport’s best numbers for the Red Sox, and I’m backing him to take Logan Gilbert deep given his poor home/road splits.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 21
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds to hit a home run (+390 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.98u | Reynolds has pummeled the baseball amid the longest on-base streak of his career |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+503 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.26u | PCA's last 18 games entering the weekend extrapolated over a full season would result in a .447/.488/.921 slash line with 81 home runs |
| Jose Siri to hit a home run (+700 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.75u | Siri's best career numbers come against the Athletics |
| Willson Contreras to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Contreras is putting up huge numbers amid swirling trade rumors |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 5.18 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Bryan Reynolds (+390)
Bryan Reynolds entered the weekend amid a 25-game on-base streak, which was one shy of the second-longest such streak of his career (2024). Over that span, he batted .364 with 15 extra-base hits, including six home runs.
Reynolds has a great chance of taking Michael Lorenzen deep, as the righty has pitched to a dreadful 8.44 ERA and .373 OBA at Coors Field this season. Lorenzen ranks in the ninth percentile in hard-hit rate, and the third percentile in xBA. He has also allowed a massive .683 slugging percentage or worse on two of his four primary pitches.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Reynolds loves the altutude
Bryan Reynolds entered the weekend with a .364/.417/.545 slash line in 15 career games at Coors Field, and it's also one of five ballparks where his BABIP is .423 or better.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+503)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is on the best heater at the plate of his young career. Crow-Armstrong entered the weekend amid a career-high 22-game on-base streak, during which he batted .409 with nine home runs, 15 RBI, 18 runs scored, and a 1.279 OPS.
The Cubs scored a season-high 16 runs in their series-opening win on Friday. They also scored seven-plus runs in a single inning in back-to-back games for the first time since July 2001.
Dylan Cease leads all American League pitchers in strikeouts, but he has also allowed multiple home runs in two of his last four starts showing regression from what is on pace to be his best career HR/9 rate (0.6).
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Jose Siri (+700)
Jose Siri hit a 444-foot three-run blast in Friday’s series opener against the Athletics, which was the longest of the nine home runs hit in the game. Siri now has hit six home runs and driven in 13 runs in 16 games against the division rival, which are his most home runs and RBI against a single opponent in his career.
Siri looks to stay hot when facing Jack Perkins, whom the Athletics have used as a starter recently due to injuries in its rotation. In four games that Perkins has pitched at least four innings, he has allowed at least one home run in each, and four of his five homers allowed this season have come at home.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Willson Contreras (+475)
In March and April, Contreras slashed .262/.375/.486 with a 137 wRC+. His slash line in May improved to .315/.394/.528 with a 149 wRC+. And up to this series in June, Contreras was slashing .347/.429/.755 with a 218 wRC+ (the seventh-highest slugging percentage and wRC this month, min. 40 PA). He also ranked 11th in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, seventh in slugging, tied for sixth in OPS, and 20th in fWAR (min 90 PA).
Contreras pulled the ball 37.7% of the time in 2025, but is up to a 52.6% in 2026. That 14.% difference is the largest over the last two seasons among Statcast qualifiers. Pulling the ball is important for Contreras, as his .522 batting average to the pull side is tied for the second-highest in the league (min. 40 PA).
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Bryan Reynolds to hit a home run (+390)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+400)
- Jose Siri to hit a home run (+700)
- Willson Contreras to hit a home run (+475)
Best odds: +112600 via bet365 (0.1u -> 112.6u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
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