⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, June 2
Arizona Diamondbacks slugger Nolan Arenado has hit four career home runs off of tonight’s opposing starting pitcher, so naturally he is the subject of one of my four best home run predictions today.
Along with Arenado, I am riding with Luke Raley from the sudden home-run happy Seattle Mariners. I am also fading Jameson Taillon and Mike Burrows, two of the most home run-prone starting pitchers while backing an Athletics and Pirates slugger to round out my MLB home run picks.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 2
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+394 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.99u | Langeliers is one of the most consistent switch-hitters in MLB |
| Ryan O'Hearn to hit a home run (+630 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.58u | O'Hearn hasn't missed a beat since returning from injury |
| Nolan Arenado to hit a home run (+575 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.44u | Arenado has homered four times in his career off Eric Lauer |
| Luke Raley to hit a home run (+700 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.75u | Raley has kept Seattle as one of MLB's top home run-hitting teams in Cal Raleigh's absence |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 5.76 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+394)
This best home run prediction today is a complete fade of Cubs righty Jameson Taillon, who has the worst HR/9 rate (2.83) of any qualified starting pitcher. Taillon allowed a whopping 10 home runs over five May starts, and seven in his last four starts overall at Wrigley Field.
Langeliers has belted 10 of his 14 long balls batting from the left side of the plate. But even if he ends up seeing more of the Cubs bullpen in different splits, Langeliers is a consistent switch hitter, with an OPS better than .900 from both sides.
📡 SBR Edge: Taillon's home run struggles
The difference between Jameson Taillon's 2.83 HR/9 rate and the next closest qualified pitcher (Ryne Nelson's 2.07) is bigger than the gap from the second-worst to the 17th-worst in that metric.
🔥 More home run picks today
Ryan O'Hearn to hit a home run (+630)
Like Taillon, Astros righty Mike Burrows also ranks in the top five worst HR/9 rates among qualified pitchers. He particularly has trouble against left-handed batters, allowing a .324/.390/.590 slash line, with nine of his 13 home runs surrendered coming in that split.
Ryan O’Hearn homered in his first at-bat on Sunday after being on the IL since May 17 with a right quad muscle strain. Prior to his injury, his off-season acquisition was a big reason Pittsburgh went from averaging 2.9 runs per game with 33 home runs and a .617 team OPS through 50 games last year, to averaging 5.0 runs per game, with 52 home runs and a .726 OPS in that split this year.
Nolan Arenado to hit a home run (+575)
No slugger on today’s slate has had better success from a power standpoint against their opposing starting pitcher than Nolan Arenado has had against Eric Lauer. Arenado has slashed .296/.394/.778 in 27 career at-bats against the southpaw. Five of his eight hits have also gone for extra bases, with four being home runs.
Lauer has allowed at least one home run in eight of his nine appearances, including eight in his last 24 2/3 innings. With his sixth percentile barrel rate and third percentile ground ball rate, I am backing Arenado to elevate the soft-tossing lefty and take him deep again.
Luke Raley to hit a home run (+700)
A year after the Mariners finished third in home runs (238), they finished May with 42 home runs as a team, tied with the White Sox for the most in the majors. Luke Raley is a big reason for that, and Seattle has caught a power surge of late, belting 10 dingers in a weekend sweep of the Diamondbacks, with Raley hitting two of those.
Raley faces Mets youngster Jonah Tong, who allowed three home runs in 18 2/3 innings at the big league level last year. But he was already on pace for a worse 1.9 HR/9 rate at Triple-A Syracuse this year, and that leaves him susceptible to one of the most power-laden lineups.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
While Arenado has had great career success in his head-to-head matchups against Lauer, this four-pack of plays and subsequent home run parlay had more to do with each opposing pitcher's struggles entering today's matchups. Most of these sluggers do not have the shortest home run odds among their own lineups, making for a juicy four-leg parlay payout among their combined odds.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+394)
- Ryan O'Hearn to hit a home run (+630)
- Nolan Arenado to hit a home run (+530)
- Luke Raley to hit a home run (+700)
Best odds: +181652 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 181.7u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 115-171-1 | +33.95 units ✅ | +18.6% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-146 | +21.89 units ✅ | +18.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
It was easy to identify two of my top four lineups to target from a home run perspective, with the Athletics and Pirates facing two starting pitchers (Taillon and Burrows) in the bottom five in HR/9 rate. After adding Langeliers and O'Hearn to my home run portfolio from those games, I aimed for balance with my other two plays of Raley and Arenado, two capable home run hitters facing struggling hurlers.
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