⚾ MLB Rookie of the Year Odds 2026: Our Best Bets Before Opening Day
With MLB Opening Day just one sleep away - and our Opening Night Yankees vs. Giants prediction keeping you occupied before then - we're taking a final preseason dive into the Rookie of the Year odds, after plenty of roster decisions helped shape the market in recent days.
First, and most recently, Kevin McGonigle officially made the Detroit Tigers' Opening Day roster, and he's solidified himself as the favorite in this market as a result. Following McGonigle is Toronto Blue Jays infielder Kazuma Okamoto, who represents a very, very interesting betting option.
On the flip side, Konnor Griffin will begin his campaign in the minors, as the Pittsburgh Pirates decided to at least start the year with Jared Triolo and Nick Gonzales as the primary infielders on the left side. When will Griffin get the call? Are his +400 odds good value, or is this price bound to lengthen further?
🔢 American League Rookie of the Year odds ahead of Opening Day
Latest MLB Rookie of the Year odds for the American League via our best sports betting sites.
🐯 McGonigle emerges as clear favorite after making Opening Day roster
Kevin McGonigle odds to win AL Rookie of the Year: +500 via Caesars
McGonigle was very solid during spring training. He walked more than he struck out, hit two nukes and stole two bases, and, overall looked like a player ready to take on the majors. As a result, he will help man the left side of the Tigers' infield, presumably with either Javier Baez or Zach McKinstry.
And though McGonigle projects to be very good in his rookie campaign, he's not expected to have especially flashy numbers. Most projection models have him finishing with around 12 or 13 home runs and eight or nine steals in a little over 100 games. He's projected to accrue the most fWAR among AL rookies, but I think he'll have a hard time taking down hitters who finish with 25-plus homers if those are his numbers.
✏️ MLB Rookie of the Year odds: Kevin McGonigle projections
Both Steamer and THE BAT project McGonigle to play only 108 games, but let's take the data from each and run them over a 135-game sample size:
- Steamer: 15 home runs, 10 stolen bases, 3.4 fWAR
- THE BAT: 16 home runs, 10 stolen bases, 2.9 fWAR
Now, McGonigle definitely showed more power in the minors last year than the leading projection models are giving him credit for, as he swatted 19 long balls across 88 games. He's not a big dude by any means, but he seemingly knows how to generate power with his slightly smaller frame.
In terms of what I expect, I anticipate something right between the low totals he's projected for and the absurd numbers he racked up in AA last season. It wouldn't surprise me to see McGonigle push for 20 homers if the Tigers let him play more regularly than his projections suggest, but if he splits time at all, I can't imagine his stats will be all that impressive. I think the most likely result is something around 18 home runs and 12 stolen bases. That's not good enough to compel me to bet on the favorite.
However, bettors at BetMGM don't agree with me, as the sportsbook reports that both the highest percentage of tickets (23.6) and handle (24.9) are on McGonigle.
⭐ Pair of Japanese stars make for best bets
Kazuma Okamoto odds to win AL Rookie of the Year: +600 via Caesars
Munetaka Murakami odds to win AL Rookie of the Year: +1000 via BetMGM
Neither Okamoto nor Murakami were particularly impressive during the WBC, but that doesn't scare me off betting on either of them to win AL Rookie of the Year.
The 26-year-old Murakami is coming off another strong season in Japan during which he hit 22 homers in just 56 games. However, he has a ton of swing-and-miss in his game and I think that could get worse in MLB. His projections are solid, but I'm not quite as interested in him as I am his countryman. (I did, however, draft him in fantasy last night so I haven't abandoned him completely 👀.)
Okamoto is my favorite player in this entire market. He's projected to hit right around 25 homers after drilling 15 in 69 games last year with a .327 average. He plays in a super hitter-friendly stadium in Toronto, will be backed by a fantastic team from top-to-bottom, and I think his profile better suits the MLB game.
I bet Okamoto earlier today at +900, but I still like this +600 price more than anything else in the AL Rookie of the Year market.
Why I bet on Kazuma Okamoto to win AL Rookie of the Year
I bet on Okamoto simply because I think he offers the best combination of pedigree and upside. I think McGonigle is a super talented true rookie, but Okamoto had a 210 wRC+ in Japan last year. He hit 41 homers in 2023, doesn't strike out a ton, is a near-lock to play every day, and I believe he should be trading as the favorite.
🔢 National League Rookie of the Year odds ahead of Opening Day
Latest MLB Rookie of the Year odds for the National League via our best sports betting apps.
🏴☠️ Griffin still among favorites despite starting season in minors
Konnor Griffin odds to win NL Rookie of the Year: +400 via FanDuel
Griffin is a super exciting prospect, but there are a ton of question marks surrounding his Rookie of the Year campaign. First, and foremost, when will he even play in the majors? The Pittsburgh Pirates are a solid team, maybe even with playoff aspirations, and I'm sure they'd rather let Griffin develop more in the minors and trot out reliable - albeit unspectacular - infielders to start the year rather than platoon him if things get dicey.
Second, when he does arrive, how will he look? Remember that Griffin is still only 19 years old, and though his ceiling is sky-high, he hit just .171 in spring training. He cut down on his strikeouts last year in the minors, but he looked overmatched at times during the spring.
Of the major projection models, ZiPS is the highest on him, and if I'm being honest, he would be the runaway favorite if he manages the type of stats it expects.
✏️ MLB Rookie of the Year odds: Konnor Griffin projections
ZiPS has Griffin projected to play 128 games and record some eye-popping numbers during that time.
- 14 home runs, 32 stolen bases
- 101 runs scored, 76 RBIs
- .261/.328/.398, 102 wRC+
- 3.5 fWAR
I think it's very likely this price lengthens with each passing day, so I wouldn't rush to bet it. I bet on Nick Kurtz right before his debut last season at +1000, and even then it lengthened after a cold spell. Then he exploded onto the scene just as I thought he would, but there were multiple instances when a better price was available. That's how I feel about Griffin. He could definitely win NL Rookie of the Year with only 120-ish games played, but you'll find better odds than +400 before that happens.
🐦 Is Wetherholt the bet for those interested in Griffin?
JJ Wetherholt odds to win NL Rookie of the Year: +550 via FanDuel
So, for those who wanted to bet on Griffin but now are second-guessing that decision, is Wetherholt the answer? Well, I'd say pump the brakes a bit on that one.
I think he's a super-talented player, but he is similar to McGonigle in a lot of ways. I think the ceiling is relatively low, at least compared to some of the other names on the oddsboard, and we aren't really getting much of a discount.
He projects to finish with around 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases if the St. Louis Cardinals let him play nearly every day, and I don't think that's going to be enough, especially when there's a potential ace involved.
🏆 McLean looks like the real deal
Nolan McLean odds to win NL Rookie of the Year: +300 via FanDuel
McLean has looked like an absolute stud at every level of pitching. He destroyed minor-league hitters last year before then destroying major-league hitters across 48 innings. He looked a bit shaky during the WBC, but he did well to limit a super dangerous Venezuela lineup in the finals.
The New York Mets rookie is being drafted in fantasy as if he's going to be a staff ace, and his projections certainly suggest that will be the case. All of the leading projection models have him finishing with a sub-4.00 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning.
McLean racked up over 150 innings across the minors and majors last year, so he should be ready to take on a significant workload. If he manages to do just that and puts up the impressive numbers I believe he can, I won't mind having paid these +300 odds when the season concludes.
Why I bet on Nolan McLean to win AL Rookie of the Year
I hate going this chalky on the Rookie of the Year market, but McLean doesn't feel like a rookie. We just saw him hold his own against the WBC champions in the final. With so many question marks surrounding the other top rookies, I'll invest in something more secure before the season begins.
❓ MLB Rookie of the Year FAQs
Who are the Rookie of the Year favorites?
Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle is the AL favorite after making the major-league roster, and Mets pitcher Nolan McLean leads the way in the NL after pitching in the WBC final.
When will the Rookie of the Year winners be announced?
The MLB Rookie of the Year Award winners last year were announced on Monday, Nov. 10. We expect the 2026 awards to be announced sometime in mid-November.
Who won the Rookie of the Year awards last year?
Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz and Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin took the honors in the AL and NL, respectively.
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