MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Opening Day

Major League Baseball's Opening Day is finally here, and we're celebrating by providing some tasty MLB best bets and player props based on the best MLB odds.

We lost some Opening Day games to Mother Nature, but MLB is still offering a loaded first full day of regular-season baseball. The action begins at 3:05 p.m. ET and should run well past midnight, with two games starting at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Among the most significant games on Thursday is a matchup between AL East rivals, with the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field at 4:10 p.m. ET. At the same time, hopeful NL West contenders will battle it out in San Diego, where the Padres will host the San Francisco Giants.

Whose fans will get something to cheer about? And which players will shine under the spotlight of Opening Day?

Here are our MLB player props and best bets for Opening Day (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s MLB best bets

• Josiah Gray Under 5.5 strikeouts (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Frankie Montas Under 4.5 strikeouts (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Cole Ragans Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐

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Thursday’s MLB player props

Josiah Gray Under 5.5 strikeouts (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Nationals vs. Reds | Moneyline: Reds (-155 via DraftKings) | Total: Over 9 (-110)/Under 9 (-110) via bet365 | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Washington Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray was known as a strikeout-per-inning type of pitcher heading into the 2023 season, but then he experienced a relatively sharp decline in those numbers. Gray managed only 8.09 strikeouts per nine innings while walking a career-high 4.53 per nine, which isn't exactly a recipe for going deep into games.

But working in Gray's favor on Thursday is the fact that the Cincinnati Reds struck out at the eight-highest rate in 2023. However, they also took walks at the 10th-highest rate, and Great American Ball Park punishes pitchers who hand out free passes. 

Across two of my trusted projection models, Gray's average strikeout total for Opening Day is 4.47. That's more than a full strikeout below what he'd need to clear this number, which is why I've made this my first four-star pick of the season.

Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the betting industry, opened with the Under priced at -103 on Tuesday. The Under was smashed to -156 throughout the next two days before being hit once again to -176 around 7 a.m. ET on Opening Day.

If you use our exclusive bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS, you can also get a 30% boost for any World Series bet on Opening Day!

Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Red Sox vs. Mariners | Moneyline: Mariners (-162 via DraftKings) | Total: Over 7.5 (+100)/Under 7.5 (-120) via bet365 | Start time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Boston Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello is a leading candidate to take the leap from serviceable to potential staff ace in 2024. However, he's expected to do so thanks to an ability to generate soft contact on the ground and limit the long ball, as Bello isn't exactly a dominant strikeout pitcher.

Further complicating matters for Bello is that he faces a dangerous Seattle Mariners offense on Opening Day. However, the Mariners struck out at the second-highest rate last season, though two of the more punchout-prone hitters - Jarred Kelenic and Teoscar Hernandez - are no longer with the club.

We took the average from three separate projection models, and Bello's strikeout projection on Thursday is 4.64. That's less than half a strikeout below the number he'd need to reach to clear this total, but the generous plus-money odds from three of our best sports betting sites provide us with value on this pick.

Be sure to use our exclusive DraftKings promo code to get one MLB bonus bet for Opening Day, which would allow you to tail this pick at no risk!

The only one of our best sports betting apps to avoid for this three-star pick is FanDuel, as its +100 odds are relatively close to Pinnacle's -113 price on the Under.

However, if you use our exclusive FanDuel promo code, you can get a 50% boost on any single MLB wager for Opening Day!

Frankie Montas Under 4.5 strikeouts (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Nationals vs. Reds | Moneyline: Reds (-155 via DraftKings) | Total: Over 9 (-110)/Under 9 (-110) via bet365 | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET 

We head back to Cincinnati for another strikeout prop, with newly acquired Reds right-hander Frankie Montas the target of this Under.

Montas has been on a roller coaster of sorts during the last five years. He appeared to be one of the game's bright young pitching stars during his masterful 2019 campaign before being suspended for violating the league's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.

The hurler bounced back with a strong 2021 season and pitched very well in 2022 prior to being traded to the New York Yankees. But everything went wrong in New York.

Now Montas gets a fresh start in Cincy, though he didn't exactly impress during spring training, managing a 5.94 ERA and only 8.64 K/9.

Meanwhile, the Nationals simply didn't strike out last season. Their 18.9% strikeout rate was the second-best mark in the majors. But they did add Joey Gallo this offseason, and he could strike out four times in any game on his own.

However, the projections are on our side. Based on the average from three models, Montas is getting a strikeout projection of 4.76 on Thursday. We're getting roughly 11% +EV on this bet based on that projection.

Cole Ragans Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Twins vs. Royals | Moneyline: Twins (-130 via DraftKings) | Total: Over 8 (-120)/Under 8 (+100) via bet365 | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Kansas City Royals left-hander Cole Ragans is among the contenders in the AL by our MLB Cy Young odds. Following some inconsistent seasons with the Texas Rangers, the southpaw looked like a pitcher reborn after joining the Royals midway through the 2023 campaign.

Ragans annihilated opposing hitters, managing a brilliant 2.64 ERA and an otherworldly 11.18 K/9. However, he isn't expected to find as much success on Opening Day.

The left-hander is projected for just 5.6 strikeouts against the Minnesota Twins. Though that's less than half a strikeout below what he'd need to clear this total, these +125 odds at ESPN BET are providing us with plenty of value on this Under.

Most of our best sportsbooks are setting Ragans' total at 6.5, with the best price on the Under coming via bet365 (-150). That's also a good bet if you want the extra strikeout, but these odds at ESPN BET are providing us with a higher EV.

MLB best bets made Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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Related pages

• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)