⛳ Valero Texas Open Picks, Predictions, Betting Preview: Ride Aberg Before Round 1
📡 SBR Edge: Valero Texas Open picks and predictions
Six of the last nine winners at the Valero Texas Open entered with odds of +2500 or longer, and two of the remaining three were grouped under the โfield.โ With a final Masters spot up for grabs, motivation will be sky-high this week. Who are we playing as our best Valero Texas Open pick? Let's dive in.
Watch this week's event on NBC and Golf Channel. The first round at TPC San Antonio will begin Thursday.
โฝ Valero Texas Open picks
Here are my 2026 Valero Texas Open picks, with odds via DraftKings to help with your golf picks. Top-5 and top-10 betting markets include ties.
| Player | Odds (Outright) | Best bet |
|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg | +1500 | Outright |
| Russell Henley | +1600 | Top 5 (+430) |
| Keith Mitchell | +3300 | Top 10 (+380) |
๐ฐ Valero Texas Open pick to win: Ludvig Aberg (+1500)
While Tommy Fleetwood is the odds-on favorite at several books, Aberg is the statistical juggernaut that fits this course perfectly.
This course rewards elite total driving and long-iron proximity. Aberg is arguably the best driver of the ball in the world right now (seventh in total driving). After a heartbreaking loss at The Players earlier this month where he faded late, he's coming in with a chip on his shoulder. He's already qualified for the Masters, so he can play aggressively without the pressure of needing a win to get into Augusta.
๐ด Valero Texas sleeper picks
Ryo Hisatsune (+4700 -> +3900)
Ryo Hisatsune, the 64th-ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), checks a lot of boxes this week and fits the mold of the golfer I want to be to win the Valero Texas Open.
- Finished T-5 in this event last year
- 0.60 strokes gained: approach and 0.43 strokes gained: around-the-green across his last 12 rounds
- Has made eight straight cuts, including a T-2 in the Farmers Insurance Open and T-8 in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Odds of +4700 (2.08% implied win probability) and returning a profit of $470 on a $10 outright bet
- Still needs an invitation to the Masters
The only drawback is his ranking of 99th in proximity to the pin on approaches from 175-200 yards. His increased driving distance last week could help to offset that lone weakness. Putting isn't a common strength in his game, but he gained 0.56 strokes per round on the greens in last year's Valero Texas Open, so a return to TPC San Antonio could sharpen up that part of his game.
💡 Will Ryo Hisatsune compete in the Masters?
We can trade on Hisatsune to compete in the 2026 Masters at Kalshi. He has around a 9% chance of doing so.
โ๏ธ How I'm betting the Valero Texas Open
The Valero Texas Open is our final opportunity to pad our bankroll for the Masters, at least for those who haven't already been betting the Masters odds futures market. I find this tournament - and TPC San Antonio - to be a little more predictable than the average PGA Tour event. Course history is important, and the tournament plays true to the key stats - especially strokes gained: approach and proximity from 175-200 yards.
As such, I'll bet this tournament slightly heavier than a regular golf event. My outright wagers will target the second and lower tiers of the Valero Texas Open oddsboard. It can be difficult to trust the tournament favorites, as they're likely to already be focusing on Augusta National Golf Course and setting up the shots they know they'll need to hit next week.
Course info
| โณ TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) | |
|---|---|
| Par | 72 |
| Yardage | 7,438 |
| Greens | Bermuda |
| Architect | Greg Norman and Sergio Garcia |
| Comparable courses | Monterey Peninsula, Port Royal, Augusta National |
The Valero Texas Open has featured a marquee field the last several years. With the comparisons to Augusta National Golf Course increasing, many top players us this TPC San Antonio as preparation for Augusta National Golf Course and the year's first major.
The greens are firm and fast and the undulation makes them among the most comparable to ANGC among the PGA Tour's regular rotation.
Though neither length nor distance is essential off the tee (a strong contrast to Augusta National), most approach shots require a long iron into the green, with 175-200 yards being the most common range. Those shots represented 19.1% of all approach shots last year. Shorter drivers will approach the greens at 250-plus yards.
๐ Key stats: Handicapping TPC San Antonio
| ๐๏ธ Stat category | โ๏ธ Weight | ๐ Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| SG: approach | 40% | The past three winners finished no worse than 2nd for the week on approach |
| SG: around-the-green | 30% | Short game is key, with the majority of approach shots coming from distance |
| Proximity: 175-200 yards | 25% | Distance off the tee is negated at TPC San Antonio, forcing long approaches |
| SG: putting | 5% | Bermuda greens are firm and fast, and undulating, with comparisons to ANGC |
๐ Full-field Valero Texas Open odds 2026
Here are the odds to win the Valero Texas Open for the 132-man field at TPC San Antonio.
๐ฐ Valero Texas Open betting history
Here are the recent winners of the Valero Texas Open, along with their 72-hole score and pre-tournament odds:
| ๐๏ธ Year | ๐ Winner | ๐ชง Score to par | ๐ Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Brian Harman | -9 | +9000 |
| 2024 | Akshay Bhatia | -20 (playoff) | +5000 |
| 2023 | Corey Conners | -15 | +2500 |
| 2022 | J.J. Spaun | -13 | +15000 |
| 2021 | Jordan Spieth | -18 | +1200 |
| 2020 | Cancelled | ||
| 2019 | Corey Conners | -20 | Field (+900) |
| 2018 | Andrew Landry | -17 | Field (+550) |
| 2017 | Kevin Chappell | -12 | +2500 |
| 2016 | Charley Hoffman | -12 | +2500 |
Historical odds via GolfOdds.com.
โ Valero Texas Open FAQs
Who is favored to win the Valero Texas Open?
Tommy Fleetwood is the betting favorite by this week's Valero Texas Open odds, with his +1450 odds to win representing an implied win probability of 6.45% and returning a profit of $145 on a winning $10 bet.
Who won the Valero Texas Open last year?
Brian Harman won last year's Valero Texas Open with a 72-hole score of -9 to win by three strokes over Ryan Gerard. Harman had pre-tournament odds of +9000 (1.10% implied win probability).
When is the Valero Texas Open?
The 2026 Valero Texas Open begins with Round 1 on Thursday and plays through Sunday, April 5.
Where is the Valero Texas Open?
The Valero Texas Open is held annually at TPC San Antonio in San Antonio since 2010.
How to watch the Valero Texas Open?
The Valero Texas Open is broadcast on NBC and Golf Channel, and streamed on Peacock and PGA Tour Live on ESPN+.
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