U.S. Open Expert Picks & Best Bets 2025: Pick to Win, Long Shot, and Top Prop Bets

Everyone has a plan until they their bets get punched in the mouth.

That feels like the theme of the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club this week. The rough is thick, the greens are fast, and scores are expected to be HIGH. There. Will. Be. Carnage.

We've broken down the third major of the year with outright picks, long shots, first-round leader predictions, matchups, prop bets, and more, all part of our U.S. Open expert picks. The action began at 6:45 a.m. ET with the first tee times, but you can often place bets until well into the day as players continue to head out on the course. 

🧠 U.S. Open predictions 2025

Here are our best U.S. Open predictions from Esten McLaren and Dustin Saracini:

⛳ Best pick to win: Keegan Bradley (+6500 via DraftKings)
⛳ Best long-shot pick: Harris English (+10000 via Caesars)
⛳ Best first-round leader pick: Thorbjorn Olesen (+12500 via BetMGM)
⛳ Best prop pick: Jon Rahm top European golfer (+360 at DraftKings)
⛳ Best matchup pick: Justin Thomas (-120 via DraftKings) vs. Tyrrell Hatton 
⛳ AI pick to win: Scottie Scheffler (+280 via Caesars)

🔮 U.S. Open expert picks

• U.S. Open first-round leader odds
• U.S. Open projected cut line
• U.S. Open power rankings
• U.S. Open matchup picks
• U.S. Open prop bets
• U.S. Open odds
• U.S. Open picks to win
• U.S. Open long shots
• U.S. Open AI predictions

💰 U.S. Open outright pick

Here is my best outright pick to win the U.S. Open:

🎯 Keegan Bradley

👉 Best odds: +6500 via DraftKings ($10 bet pays $650 profit) | Implied win probability: 13.33% 

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This really isn't as much about the long odds and potential $650 profit on a winning $10 bet as it's simply about the golfer. These odds should be significantly shorter and are only this long as a result of Scheffler's suppressed odds at the top of the board.

Bradley ranks fourth in this week's field in SG: tee-to-green across his last 16 measured rounds. His 0.60 SG: off-the-tee per round perfectly blends accuracy and distance, both of which will be essential for this week's winner.

The 18th-ranked golfer in the world tied for the eighth in the PGA Championship for his best major finish since the 2022 U.S. Open.

While we initially recommended Bradley at a ludicrous +10000, I'm still plenty happy to bet him at +6500 as I think he should be priced even closer to the favorites.

💤 Sleeper pick to win the 2025 U.S. Open

Here is my best sleeper pick I'm backing to win the 2025 U.S. Open:

🎯 Harris English

Best odds to win: +10000 via Caesars ($10 pays $1,000) | Implied win probability: 0.99%
Alternate bet: Top 30 finish (+150 via DraftKings)

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English enters the week at No. 17 in the OWGR following a T-12 finish in the Memorial Tournament. He was a co-runner-up in the PGA Championship after a T-12 in the Masters. His victory in the Farmers Insurance Open ended a 3.5-year victory drought.

English is an accurate driver, has averaged 1.46 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round across his last 16 rounds, and is an excellent putter. All three of those traits will need to be leaned on this week at Oakmont, and a winning $10 bet would return a profit of $1,100 at FanDuel. BetRivers has his odds to win at just +6600.

💰 U.S. Open first-round leader prediction

Here is my best first-round leader prediction for the U.S. Open:

🏌️ Thorbjorn Olesen

👉 Best odds: +12500 via BetMGM ($10 pays $1,250)

Olesen ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average for the 2025 season, and he tees off at 8:35 a.m. ET on Thursday.

The Danish golfer enters the week at No. 83 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and has made six straight cuts with a top finish of T-7 in the Myrtle Beach Classic. 

💰 U.S. Open prop bet

Here is Dustin's best prop bet for the U.S. Open:

Jon Rahm top European golfer

Best odds: +360 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 21.74%

A big part of making these plays is finding a golfer who’s been playing lights-out golf recently, and Rahm fits the bill – we’ll be riding him as part of our best U.S. Open prop bets. Whatever your opinion is of LIV, Rahm has 21 top 10s on the rival tour – yes, that’s every single start of his since he joined as captain of Legion XIII over 18 months ago. Is that good? 

Rahm also has a history of winning this tournament, claiming the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines alongside four top 10s in his career.  

Another player to watch in this market is Shane Lowry at +1200, who made a charge at the Canadian Open this past week; that's why he's in Esten McLaren's U.S. Open picks to win.

He also finished T-2 at this course in 2016 at 1-under. I’m sprinkling on Lowry but dropping a full unit on Rahm at +360. I’d play this down to +300 prior to Thursday. 

💰 U.S. Open matchup pick

Here is Dustin's best matchup pick for the U.S. Open:

🥊 Justin Thomas vs. Tyrrell Hatton 

Best bet: Justin Thomas (-120 via DraftKings)
Implied probability: 54.55%

Right off the bat (or club), these odds jump off the page. I love the value we’re getting with Thomas against Hatton. 

Thomas is one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour and has made the cut in all but one U.S. Open since 2016. He's more equipped to play at Oakmont and shouldn't have any problem making the weekend, which may just be enough to win this matchup.

Statistically, Thomas ranks higher in strokes gained: approach (eighth) and around-the-green play (27th) than Hatton this season, which is crucial when navigating one of the most difficult courses in the world. Let’s ride with Thomas as part of our best U.S. Open matchup picks this week.

🤖 U.S. Open AI prediction

Here is ChatGPT's best pick to win the U.S. Open. Please note this pick is for entertainment purposes only and serves to provide additional information and insights to make informed decisions:

ChatGPT predicts Scottie Scheffler will win the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club with a winning 72-hole score of 2-under 278.

Why Scheffler:

• Odds to win: +280 via Caesars (26.32%)
• Form: Won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, PGA Championship, and Memorial in three of his last four starts, and hasn't finished outside the top 10 since March
• Course fit: His ball-striking precision and calm temperament make him ideally suited to Oakmont’s narrow fairways, punishing rough, and lightning-fast greens

🏌️Best golf betting sites for the 2025 U.S. Open

Looking to bet on the U.S. Open? Here are the top-rated golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos:

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