⛳ Houston Open First-Round Leader Predictions: Best Bets for Round 1 Lead
📡 SBR Edge: Masters motivation an extra factor in Houston Open FRL picks
While handicapping this week's Texas Children's Houston Open for my first-round leader predictions, I'm looking mainly at strong finishers from last week's Valspar Championship and prefer those with the extra motivation of needing a win in the next two weeks to earn an invitation to the Masters.
The weather is not expected to be an issue on Thursday, but the morning wave may enjoy some slightly slower greens before the afternoon heat.
💰 Houston Open first-round leader predictions
Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the Texas Children's Houston Open:
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Gotterup | +3500 via DraftKings | 0.5u -> 17.5u | PGA Tour leader with a 63.00 early Round 1 scoring average |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +4100 via DraftKings | 0.5u -> 20.5u | Still seeking a Masters invite and can ride a hot putter |
| Emiliano Grillo | +13000 via DraftKings | 0.25u -> 32.5u | Tied for Sunday's round of the day (-6) with sharp irons |
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⛳ Picks to lead the Houston Open after Round 1
My best bet: Chris Gotterup (+3500, 0.5 units)
Tee time: 8:53 a.m. ET, Tee 10 | Group: Jason Day, Sam Burns
Though he's only had two such tee times, Chris Gotterup leads the PGA Tour with a 63.00 Round 1 scoring average. He was one back of the first-round lead in the Sony Open before going on to win, and he won the WM Phoenix Open (in a playoff) after racing out to the solo Round 1 lead.
It's not just the tee time in his favor, though. He's one of the longest hitters off the tee in any field. His irons have been routinely sharp, and he had a strong T-18 finish in his second appearance in this event last year.
Our Dustin Saracini is backing Gotterup for a top 5 finish with his Houston Open picks.
💰️ Bonus FRL pick: Ryan Fox (+4500)
Our LJ Blut backs Ryan Fox to be the first-round leader at +4500 odds, with his Texas Children's Houston Open long-shot picks.
🎯 More first-round leader predictions
Nicolai Hojgaard (+4100, 0.5 units)
Tee time: 8:31 a.m. ET, Tee 10 | Group: Keith Mitchell, Max Greyserman
Nicolai Hojgaard needs a win this week or next to join his brother, Rasmus, in the 2026 Masters field. He's been a hot starter this season with a Round 1 scoring average of 68.67 through three events with a morning start. Though he struggled in the final round last week, he stayed positive with his putting stroke, and he has plenty of length off the tee for Memorial Park.
I don't value course history when handicapping this event, so I'm not concerned about his missed cut in his tournament debut last year.
Emiliano Grillo (+13000, 0.25 units)
Tee time: 1:42 p.m. ET, Tee 10 | Group: Seamus Power, Trey Mullinax
Emiliano Grillo also needs a win this week to return to Augusta National Golf Course in two weeks. That led me to look at him, and his final round of the Valspar Championship has me making this bet. The +13000 odds allow me to make this only a 0.25-unit bet and still return a profit of 32.5 units.
Grillo gained 3.25 strokes on approach and 2.47 strokes on the greens in Round 4 last week. That fuelled a -6 Sunday scorecard that propelled him to a T-7 finish.
⏰️ When are first-round leader bets paid out?
The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.
📜 Houston Open first-round leader history
Here are the past first-round leaders of the Texas Children's Houston Open, along with the tournament winner and their Round 1 scores:
| Year | First-round leader (score, finish) | Tournament winner (first-round score) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | T. Pendrith, A. Tosti, R. Gerard, K. Mitchell, T. Dickinson (-5, T-5 - T-39) | Min Woo Lee (-4) |
| 2024 | T. Moore, W. Furr (-6, T-2, T-36) | Stephan Jaeger (-1) |
| 2023 | T. Finau, A. Noren, A. Wise (-5, 1, T-4, T-22) | Tony Finau (-5) |
| 2022 | M. Trainer, R. Henley, L. List, M. Leishman, T. Gooch (-5, T-5 - 60) | Jason Kokrak (-2) |
| 2021 | Brandt Snedeker (-5, T-44) | Carlos Ortiz (-3) |
The Houston Open has been played at Memorial Park Golf Course only since 2021, so that's as far back as we're going to look at the historical first-round leaders of this event. The 18-hole lead has been held at -5 all but once, when two golfers got to -6 six in Round 1 of the 2024 tournament.
The biggest comeback over the final 54 holes was Stephan Jaeger in 2024, who was five off the lead following the opening round.
🌤️ Thursday's weather at Memorial Park Golf Course
Weather from Accuweather for Memorial Park Golf Couse in Houston, on Thursday, March 26:
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| 🌡️ Temp. | 66 degrees in the morning, high of 85 in the afternoon |
| 💨 Wind | 12 mph with gusts up to 25 mph |
| 🌤️ Precipitation | Mostly sunny with 36% cloud cover; 0% precipitation |
| ☀️ Humidity | 70% humidity |
As is typical for Houston, we're not expecting weather to have an impact on Thursday. The temperature will rise to a high of 85 in the afternoon. There's no rain in the forecast, and moderate wind should not be an issue.
The only real weather impact will be the already firm and fast greens speeding up even more for the late starters. The morning wave may have a slightly easier time making putts in Round 1, so we could expect a few more birdies early in the day.
📝 How I bet on first-round leaders
Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market. Though it's a highly volatile betting market, it's one of my favorites.
We see longer odds on the tournament favorites and shorter odds for the tournament long shots. This significantly grows the pool of players with a genuine chance to top the leaderboard after Round 1.
Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.
📊 Houston Open first-round leader odds
Here are the Texas Children's Houston Open first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.
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