⛳ Genesis Invitational First-Round Leader Predictions & Odds: Round 1 Betting Preview

Scottie Scheffler will tee off at 2:37 p.m. ET in Round 1 of The Genesis Invitational as the heavy outright betting favorite on Thursday. The first round has been his undoing in recent weeks, presenting a real profit opportunity for bettors with our Genesis Invitational first-round leader predictions.

Genesis Invitational tee times for Round 1 begin at 10:15 a.m. ET, with Sami Valimaki, J.T. Poston, and Rico Hoey in the first group. All of the 72-man field will tee off on Hole 1, and only one course is in use this week.

💰 Genesis Invitational first-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of The Genesis Invitational:

⛳ Who'll lead the Genesis Invitational after Round 1?

Best FRL bet: Patrick Cantlay (+3300)

Round 1 tee time: 2:13 p.m. ET | Group: Sepp Straka & Harry Hall

I value that Patrick Cantlay isn't in a featured group Thursday afternoon, allowing him to play his opening round amid less fanfare. The native of Long Beach, Calif., will play competitively at Riviera Country Club for the 10th time on the PGA Tour, and he finished T-4 and third in his last two appearances.

Cantlay is averaging a first-round score of 67.00 through three tournaments. He led the field with 4.67 strokes gained: approach in Round 4 at Pebble Beach last week, and we're trusting that to continue at the familiar venue. Dustin Saracini is backing Cantlay for a top-5 finish with his Genesis Invitational picks.

Viktor Hovland (+4000)

Round 1 tee time: 11:39 a.m. ET | Group: Cameron Young & Shane Lowry

Viktor Hovland is one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour right now, averaging 1.05 strokes gained: approach across his last 12 measured rounds. He's never finished worse than T-20 in four career appearances at Riviera while consistently leaning into distance off the tee.

That distance will help him with his late-morning tee time when wind gusts are expected to be strongest. Hovland is No. 9 in my Genesis Invitational power rankings.

Taylor Pendrith (+6600)

Round 1 tee time: 10:39 a.m. ET | Group: Matt McCarthy & Jonattan Vegas

This tournament is a rare case where I actually prefer the afternoon wave for the majority of my first-round leader predictions. The conditions - wind and rain - are expected to settle a bit in the later afternoon.

But Pendrith profiles perfectly to battle the harsher morning weather. He's one of the longer hitters in any field both off the tee and with his irons. His putter has been hot lately, and we hope that will continue on the Poa annua greens of Riviera Country Club in the final event of the West Coast swing.

If you like Pendrith's +6600 odds, see our LJ Blut's Genesis Invitational long-shot picks for more.

⛅ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

🌧️ Thursday's weather at Riviera Country Club

Weather from Accuweather.com:

📊 Genesis Invitational first-round leader odds

Here are the Genesis Invitational first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.