2026 Farmers Insurance Open First-Round Leader Picks: North Course is Key to 18-Hole Lead

We've cashed on Nick Taylor and Scottie Scheffler with our first-round leader picks through the first two events of the 2026 PGA Tour season. Let's keep the good times rolling as we break down the Farmers Insurance Open odds with our best picks for the 18-hole lead at Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego.

Farmers Insurance Open tee times will begin at 12:10 p.m. ET on both the North and South Course.

💰 Farmers Insurance Open first-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Course:

Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.

⛳ Who'll lead the Farmers Insurance Open after Round 1?

Sam Stevens (+3500)

Round 1 tee time: 1:16 p.m. ET | Course: North Course (10th tee)

Sam Stevens finished sixth last week in La Quinta, Calif., and he was the solo runner-up in this event last year. He played the Farmers Insurance Open each of the past three years and has averaged 0.46 true strokes gained on the field per round on the North Course.

I like his early tee time on Thursday and the fact that he'll be playing the easier North Course. He has a Round 1 scoring average of 66.50 through two events this year. FanDuel has Stevens priced at +2700 to be the first-round leader on the North Course.

S.H. Kim (+5700)

Round 1 tee time: 1:27 p.m. ET | Course: North Course (1st tee)

S.H. Kim is sleeping well on Wednesday nights.

The 27-year-old from the Republic of Korea is averaging 63.00 first-round strokes through the two PGA Tour events this season. He tied for 18th last week and has a top Farmerspi Insurance Open finish of T-20 three years ago, though he played best on the North Course in each of his last three competitive appearances at Torrey Pines.

Kim is also rolling a hot putter that makes him one of the best in this field. Though this week's Poa annua greens make putting a little less predictable, I trust him to be less negatively impacted than most in the field. He's +4500 to be the first-round leader on the North Course at FanDuel.

Aldrich Potgeiter (+27500)

Round 1 tee time: 12:32 p.m. ET | Course: South Course (10th tee)

Somewhat in the words of Kevin Malone from 'The Office': "If you give me 275-1 on anything, I'll take it."

These Farmers Insurance Open odds are, frankly, absurd. And it's enough to make Aldrich Potgeiter my only first-round leader pick of the week who'll be playing the South Course on Thursday. He's the second-longest hitter in the field, and that can neutralize some of the differences between the two courses.

He played this event just once and finished T-15 two years ago while averaging 0.30 strokes gained per round on the South Course.

⛅ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather (<- link to Accuweather course page) to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

🌤️ Thursday's weather at Torrey Pines Golf Course

Weather from Accuweather.com:

Weather & tee time impact: The North Course advantage

For the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open, the "First Round Leader" market hinges almost entirely on the North Course vs. South Course split. Historically, the North Course plays nearly three strokes easier than the brutal South Course, and with Thursday's forecast calling for ideal conditions - sunny skies and calm morning winds around 5 mph - we expect a massive scoring gap early in the day.

While the South Course (7,765 yards) remains the primary focus of the media due to Brooks Koepka’s high-profile PGA Tour return (9:32 AM PT tee time), bettors should look to the North rotation for their FRL cards. The calm morning air will allow aggressive ball-strikers to attack the North’s more vulnerable green complexes before the coastal breeze picks up to 10–12 mph in the afternoon.

With the marine layer expected to burn off by 10:00 AM, the early starters on the North Course have a distinct "window of opportunity" to post a 7-under or 8-under par score that those on the South Course will find nearly impossible to match.

🏌️Farmers Insurance Open featured tee times

Here are your featured tee-off times for Thursday for the Farmers Insurance Open.

Torrey Pines South Course - 1st hole

Torrey Pines South Course - 10th Hole

Torrey Pines North Course - 1st Hole

Torrey Pines North Course - 10th Hole

📊 Farmers Insurance Open first-round leader odds

Here are the Farmers Insurance Open first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.

🧠 Farmers Insurance Open expert picks

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