Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions from Saturday's Sports Slate
We've shopped the odds and lines at our best sportsbooks in search of today's best bets for Saturday, March 11. Our top picks include offerings from college basketball, the NBA, UFC, Premier League, and XFL.
College basketball is dominating the sports betting landscape for the next few weeks and we're focused on Saturday's Power 6 conference championship odds in our best bets today. We'll also highlight Saturday's top NBA action and round out our card with our best bets from the XFL, UFC, and Premier League, while keeping an eye on the Players Championship live odds for Saturday.
Also be sure to check out how Friday night's massive NFL trade impacted the 2023 NFL Draft odds.
Read on for today's best bets for Saturday, March 11, based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Saturday's best bets
- College basketball: Arizona-UCLA Over 148 (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- NBA: Grizzlies -5 vs. Mavericks (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- UFC: Romanov ML vs. Volkov (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- XFL: BattleHawks -4 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Renegades ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- NASCAR: Kyle Larson +600 (via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Soccer: Fulham-Arsenal Over 2.5 (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Saturday's college basketball best bet
Arizona vs. UCLA Over 148 (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
As we look at our Arizona vs. UCLA picks, the Bruins are already without forward Jaylen Clark, who is out for the season with an Achilles injury. Add center Adem Bona to that list of Bruins players who may miss Saturday's Pac-12 championship game, as he left Friday's win over Oregon due to a shoulder injury and did not return.
UCLA held Arizona to 65.5 points per game in splitting two regular-season meetings, 17.8 points below the Wildcats' season average. However, Arizona has a much higher offensive ceiling in this third meeting without Clark (arguably the Bruins' best perimeter defender) and Bona to help defend the Wildcats' massive frontcourt.
This is a four-star play as Clark and Bona have UCLA's two highest Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR) per EvanMiya. In addition, the team has allowed .80 points per possession when on they've been on the floor together this season, per Synergy.
Saturday's college basketball best bets made by Mike Spector.
Check out our Duke vs. Virginia pick and Arizona vs. UCLA pick.
Saturday's NBA best bet
Grizzlies -5 vs. Mavericks (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Grizzlies blew out the visiting Golden State Warriors on Thursday, and sparks flew between Dillon Brooks and Draymond Green. Without Ja Morant, Steven Adams, or Brandon Clarke, Memphis steamrolled the defending champs, and although Golden State has been atrocious on the road, this was a strong victory.
The Grizz are 3-0 ATS over their last three games, and the team sports a 20-11-1 ATS record at home this season. Dallas has been awful ATS in nearly every situation this season. The team will be without Doncic, and Kyrie Irving is questionable due to a foot issue.
In 10 games without Doncic thus far, Dallas is 3-7 straight up and 5-5 ATS. The Mavs were minus-54 in those 10 contests, so this line feels about right. Look for Memphis to stay hot at home and Dallas to come up short without its best player. Even if Kyrie plays, we’re taking this line up to Grizzlies -5.5.
Saturday's NBA best bets made by Zachary Hanshew. Check out our Bucks vs. Warriors pick.
Check out all of our NBA best bets, and our 2023 NBA Finals odds and 2023 NBA MVP odds.
Saturday's UFC best bet
Romanov ML vs. Volkov (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Alexander Volkov is the UFC heavyweight division’s resident gatekeeper. His length and rangy striking are enough to best most opponents, but his grappling remains a liability that I expect Alexandr Romanov can exploit. Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes have beaten Volkov on the mat, and now the Russian faces a dogged wrestler and tireless top player in Romanov this Saturday.
With a gaudy takedown average of 5.18 per 15 minutes, Romanov enters this matchup with an endless motor for a man his size. If he can put Volkov on his back foot from the opening bell, I expect him to spend most of this matchup in top control en route to a win.
Saturday's UFC best bets made by Themistoklis Alexis.
Check out our top Yan vs. Dvalishvili pick.
Saturday's XFL best bet
BattleHawks -4 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The BattleHawks may have come up short last week against D.C., but there were still positives to take away from the game. For the first time all season, QB A.J. McCarron and the offense were able to find their groove before the final quarter. The resulting 28-point output was made all the more impressive by the fact that they were going up against an aggressive defensive opponent.
Speaking of defensive aggression, the Renegades have thrived at forcing turnovers so far this season. Arlington forced another two takeaways in last week’s win over Orlando, but the offense failed to do much in the game as a whole. With Kyle Sloter under center, many were expecting more out of the Renegades’ offense than what the unit has ultimately produced thus far.
Through three games, the BattleHawks’ defense has struggled mightily against the run. Luckily for St. Louis, the Renegades don’t look to be capable of fully exploiting this weakness. Arlington comes in averaging only 2.5 yards per carry on the season which is by far the worst mark in the entire XFL.
Provided that McCarron and the offense can pick up where they left off last week and take care of the football, the BattleHawks figure to be more than capable of covering as four-point favorites. Bettors should also consider the fact that this is St. Louis’ first home game of the year. If the raucous crowds we saw here in 2020 are any indication, the BattleHawks figure to have a decisive home-field advantage.
Saturday's XFL best bets made by Henry John.
Saturday's NASCAR best bet
Kyle Larson to win the United Rentals Work United 500 (+600 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
(Race takes place Sunday, March 12)
Larson has made 17 career starts at Phoenix and has 10 top-10 finishes. He has crossed the finish line inside the top three on four occasions here with a win in the 2021 season that crowned him the series champion. Larson continues to be one of the fastest drivers on this track. The No. 5 car has spent at least 97% of the race running in the top 15 in two out of his last three races in Arizona.
It has been a rough start to the 2023 season for Larson, finishing 18th at Daytona and 29th at Fontana. However, he looked a lot closer to his former self last week, leading 63 laps in Las Vegas on his way to a runner-up finish. Henrick cars finished 1-2 in that race. Chase Elliott is out of this race which could give an extra boost to the rest of the HMS team.
United Rentals Work United picks made by Rodrigo Villagomez.
Saturday's Premier League best bet
Fulham-Arsenal Over 2.5 (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
(Match will be played Sunday)
This match features two teams in the top 10 in the Premier League for expected goals this season. Fulham, who have been impressive so far this campaign, are ninth with 33.5 xG after 26 games, and they are averaging 1.46 goals per contest.
League-leaders Arsenal rank second in xG with 51. The Gunners are averaging 2.27 goals per contest. Throughout their Premier League history, matches between these two average 2.94 goals per game, which is above the threshold for our win.
Everything about this match points to goals, which is why I’m giving it a four-star backing.
Fulham vs. Arsenal pick made by Anthony Wootton.
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