UFC Odds & Best Bets Today: UFC Fight Night 221 Schedule, Picks
Petr Yan will look to right the ship against Merab Dvalishvili in a pivotal bantamweight headliner during the UFC's latest event. Read on for our UFC best bets for Saturday's UFC Fight Night based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Yan heads to Las Vegas on the first losing skid of his career after dropping controversial split decisions to reigning champ Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley during his pair of 2022 outings. The former divisional champion lost his crown to Sterling through a disqualification in March 2021 before falling to him again as an interim champ this past April in a championship unification bout.
Sharing the Octagon with Yan is a streaking contender and teammate of Sterling’s in Dvalishvili, who’s won eight straight since dropping his first two UFC contests in 2017 and 2018. The Georgian native most recently earned a unanimous verdict over Jose Aldo in August 2022, and now he enters his 20th career matchup with a pro record of 15-4.
Here are our best UFC bets for UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our UFC best bets.
UFC Fight Night schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings as Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET)
Main card (6 p.m. ET)
- Petr Yan (-245) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+205)
- Alexander Volkov (+125) vs. Alexandr Romanov (-145)
- Nikita Krylov (-170) vs. Ryan Spann (+145)
- Said Nurmagomedov (-225) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+190)
- Vitor Petrino (-110) vs. Anton Turkalj (-110)
Preliminary fights (3 p.m. ET)
- Karl Williams (-250) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+210)
- Raphael Assuncao (+125) vs. Davey Grant (-145)
- Sedriques Dumas (-225) vs. Josh Fremd (+190)
- Mario Bautista (-950) vs. Guido Cannetti (+650)
- Ariane Lipski (+295) vs. JJ Aldrich (-360)
- Victor Henry (-140) vs. Tony Gravely (+120)
- Tyson Nam (+155) vs. Bruno Silva (-180)
UFC Fight Night best bets
- Fight line: Romanov ML vs. Volkov (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Upset: Assuncao ML vs. Grant (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Winning method: Assuncao by decision or submission vs. Grant (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Prop bet: Henry vs. Gravely Under 2.5 Rounds (+150 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Parlay: Romanov (-150) + Krylov (-170) + Henry vs. Gravely Under 2.5 rounds (+150) = +562 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
UFC Fight Night top picks
Fight line: Romanov ML vs. Volkov (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Volkov is the UFC heavyweight division’s resident gatekeeper. His length and rangy striking are enough to best most opponents, but his grappling remains a liability that I expect Romanov can exploit. Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes have beaten Volkov on the mat, and now the Russian faces a dogged wrestler and tireless top player in Romanov this Saturday.
With a gaudy takedown average of 5.18 per 15 minutes, Romanov enters this matchup with an endless motor for a man his size. If he can put Volkov on his back foot from the opening bell, I expect him to spend most of this matchup in top control en route to a win.
Check out our Yan vs. Dvalishvili pick.
Upset: Assuncao ML vs. Grant (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Assuncao has excelled while making solid fighters go gun shy, and while he’s longer in the tooth than Grant, he may very well do it again on Saturday.
A cagey counterstriker with an excellent significant strike defense of 67%, Assuncao gets a favorable, albeit dangerous matchup against Grant, a willing banger who knocked out Louis Smolka during his last bout. If he can time a few counters early to earn Grant’s respect, look for Assuncao to slow the striking dance down and mix in some of his dormant, yet solid grappling to steal rounds and make it two straight wins.
Check out our McGregor vs. Chandler odds
Winning method: Assuncao by decision or submission vs. Grant (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
To piggyback off my previous pick, Assuncao has earned 10 tap outs and 14 decisions over 28 career victories, while Grant has tapped in four of his six pro losses. However, the Brazilian hasn’t won by submission since Barack Obama was president. But he isn’t afraid to take things to the mat when needed, as demonstrated during his last two wins over Victor Henry and Rob Font.
If a game Grant begins finding a home for his mitts, I suspect Assuncao will respond with takedowns. Then he'll have his way with Grant on the mat, flaunt his deceptively fluid scrambling ability, and maybe even end his submission drought.
Prop bet: Henry vs. Gravely Under 2.5 Rounds (+150 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
With 27 career stoppage victories between them and fighting styles that match up beautifully no matter where the action goes, Henry and Gravely shouldn’t need the judges’ participation to determine the better man.
Gravely is a willing striker who lands and eats around 3.5 significant strikes per minute, and Henry’s high-volume attack amounts to 7.87 significant strikes landed and 6.47 absorbed.
As for their grappling chops, Gravely averages a whopping 5.83 takedowns per matchup, meaning he’ll likely be the one to initiate any grappling exchanges, even though he’s tapped in five of his eight pro losses. Henry is also a solid grappler who’s claimed eight of his 14 stoppages through submission.
One of these men will likely add another stoppage to their record when the cage door shuts.
Parlay: Romanov (-150) + Krylov (-170) + Henry vs. Gravely Under 2.5 rounds (+150) = +562 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
UFC best bets made 3/10/2023 at 12:11 a.m. ET.
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