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Arsenal defender William Saliba celebrates after scoring his team's first goal during the UEFA Europa League and we offer our best odds and picks for Fulham vs. Arsenal.
Arsenal defender William Saliba celebrates after scoring his team's first goal during the UEFA Europa League. Photo by Filipe Amorim via AFP.

Arsenal showed Manchester City last weekend that they’re in a fight for this season’s Premier League title. The Gunners head to west London for Matchday 27 to take on a Fulham side that is six points off a Champions League place. Read on for our Fulham-Arsenal pick based on the best soccer odds.

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal squad has won all four of its away Premier League London derbies this season by an aggregate score of 8-0. In the history of the English Football League, no side has ever won five consecutive away London derbies while keeping a clean sheet each time.

Meanwhile, Marco Silva has done an excellent job at Fulham in their first season back in the English top flight. The Portuguese head coach has guided the Whites to six league wins at home this season, losing just three of their 13 matches at Craven Cottage.

Here is our best Fulham vs. Arsenal pick (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Fulham vs. Arsenal pick

Over 2.5 (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This match features two teams in the top 10 in the Premier League for expected goals this season. Fulham, who have been impressive so far this campaign, are ninth with 33.5 xG after 26 games, and they are averaging 1.46 goals per contest.

League-leaders Arsenal rank second in xG with 51. The Gunners are averaging 2.27 goals per contest. Throughout their Premier League history, matches between these two average 2.94 goals per game, which is above the threshold for our win.

Fulham have lost only one of their last five Premier League games at Craven Cottage (three wins, one draw), and they have already scored more goals at home this season (21) than they did in the entirety of their last top-flight campaign (nine in 2020-21).

Arsenal have won 10 of their 13 Premier League away games this season (two defeats, one draw), including six of their last seven (one loss).

Fulham attacker Manor Solomon has scored in each of his last five appearances. Only Erling Haaland (10) and Marcus Rashford (seven) have had a longer streak among Premier League players this season. Additionally, only four players have scored more Premier League goals than Cottagers’ striker Aleksandar Mitrovic (11) in the 2022-23 campaign. Bukayo Saka has scored 10 goals in the competition for the Gunners.

Everything about this match points to goals, which is why I’m giving it a four-star backing.

Fulham vs. Arsenal best odds

FanDuel (-120)

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars PointsBet
Over 2.5Over 2.5Over 2.5Over 2.5Over 2.5
-125-120-130 -125 -125

The price for the Over was as short as -118 on Thursday and after dropping as low as -135 in some spots Saturday, the odds are ticking back up Sunday morning. This may be a result of Arsenal’s defending during Thursday’s UEFA Europa League draw with Sporting Lisbon, which ended 2-2.

Over their last four Premier League matches, Fulham have averaged 1.5 goals per game. The Gunners have averaged a stunning three goals per game across their last four matches in the league.

The books favor the Over in this match, which is obvious given the records of both sides. The result is tough to call, but the total looks a lock for Sunday’s London derby.

Fulham vs. Arsenal odds analysis

At +490, Fulham are big underdogs for this contest. The best Moneyline price for Arsenal is -167 via BetMGM. There’s good value ATS, which has the Cottagers as +0.5 underdogs. They’re priced at +135 with DraftKings.

If you fancy Arsenal to cover, they’re -165 via Caesars. Fulham are winless in their last nine Premier League meetings against Arsenal (two draws, seven defeats). They've lost all four against the Gunners at Craven Cottage in this run. However, the Whites have excelled this season and Arsenal are playing after a Europa League tie in Portugal on Thursday.

Fulham vs. Arsenal game info

Date: Sunday, March 12, 9 a.m. ET
TV: Peacock, fuboTV
Location: Craven Cottage, Fulham, West London
Weather: 53 degrees, 27% chance of precipitation, 15-mph winds

Fulham-Arsenal pick made 3/10/2023 at 1:15 p.m. ET.

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