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Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: A New Orleans Bowl Shootout?

Top college football picks for the New Orleans Bowl between Western Kentucky and South Alabama.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 8, 2025 11:09 AM EDT • 3 minute read

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The South Alabama Jaguars look to keep their winning streak alive in the New Orleans Bowl, but will the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers put an end to it? Find out in our Western Kentucky-South Alabama picks.

Western Kentucky (8-5, 6-2) won three of four games to end the season, with its only loss coming in a non-conference tilt against SEC opponent Auburn. The Hilltoppers have allowed 40 or more points in their last two losses but held opponents to 17 or fewer points in six of their last seven wins.

Meanwhile, South Alabama (10-2, 7-1) has lost just two games this season by a combined five points (a one-point loss at UCLA and a four-point home loss to conference champion Troy). Of its 10 wins (one of four Group of 5 teams with double-digit wins), five came by a touchdown or less. Those 10 victories are tied for South Alabama's most wins in a season while at the FBS level.

Here is our best Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama college football pick for the New Orleans Bowl (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama Game Info

Date: Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022, 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Weather: Indoors

Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama Odds

Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama Odds Analysis

South Alabama opened as a 5-point favorite but has been bet down to -3.5 to -4.5 at our top sportsbooks. There's two-way action on the spread, with South Alabama getting 55% of the tickets, and Western Kentucky receiving 50% of the cash.

The total has experienced one of the biggest changes across all bowl games. After opening in the low 60s at most sportsbooks, it went down as low as 55.5 before bouncing back slightly to 57.5. Around 73% of the cash on 77% of the tickets is on the Over.

Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama Pick

Over 55.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Western Kentucky received a big boost when quarterback Austin Reed removed his name from the transfer portal. Reed finished second among all FBS quarterbacks with 4,247 passing yards, throwing for at least 320 yards in eight of 11 starts. He is also fourth in passing touchdowns (36) and is a threat with his legs (eight rushing touchdowns), and he amasses those gaudy stats by engineering an offense that plays at the 18th-fastest pace (the Hilltoppers snap the ball every 23.14 seconds on average) in the country.

On the other side, South Alabama’s offense ranks in the top 27 in EPA per play, passing success rate, and EPA per pass.

The Jaguars do not play nearly at the same tempo as the Hilltoppers (81st-fastest). Still, between their offensive prowess and a Western Kentucky offense that runs for five yards per carry while throwing on more than 60% of its plays, we should be in for a shootout in a climate-controlled environment.

Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama Odds

BetMGM (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
56	56	55.5	56	56
Over -105, Under -115	Over -112, Under -108	Over -110, Under -110	Over -110, Under -110	Over -110, Under -110

BetMGM is the place to go for Over backers, as it is the only sportsbook offering a total of 55.5 at standard juice. The line likely plummeted amid rumors that Reed would transfer, but we expect plenty of points with him under center.

Western Kentucky-South Alabama picks made 12/20/2022 at 6:15 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”