Virginia vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 12

Notre Dame is still pushing for a College Football Playoff spot, and the Fighting Irish shouldn't overlook Virginia.

Philip Wood

Last updated: November 15, 2024 12:30 PM EST • 5 min read

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard runs against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets as we look at our Virginia vs. Notre Dame prediction. — Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard runs against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Photo by Dale Zanine/Imagn Images.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to pick up their seventh consecutive win against the upset-minded Virginia Cavaliers. Notre Dame is still clinging to its long-shot status in the college football championship odds.

The latest odds from our best sports betting sites are setting the Fighting Irish as 22.5-point favorites as I make the best Virginia vs. Notre Dame prediction for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET (NBC) game at Notre Dame Stadium. The Fighting Irish boast the eighth-best scoring offense and third-best scoring defense in the nation.

But they shouldn’t look past a Cavaliers team that upset the Pittsburgh Panthers 24-19 last week and is just one win away from bowl eligibility. Can the Cavaliers keep this game closer than many expect?

Best Virginia vs. Notre Dame picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Against the spread pick: Virginia +22.5 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐
My best bet: Kobe Pace Under 34.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Virginia vs. Notre Dame against the spread prediction: Week 12

Virginia to cover the spread: +22.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Virginia vs. Notre Dame opening odds:

Virginia: +22.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Notre Dame: -22.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Virginia's passing attack prevents blowout

The Cavaliers are averaging 249.1 passing yards per game this season. Their passing attack will be on display Saturday during a game in which Virginia will likely be trailing throughout. While Anthony Colandrea and Co. are likely to struggle against the third-best pass defense in the country, they won't need to do a lot to cover this spread.

If the Cavaliers score 13 points as they have in every game this season, then they just need to hold the Fighting Irish to 35 or fewer points to cover. While that's still a significant ask considering how good the Fighting Irish's offense has been, Notre Dame is averaging 38.3 points per game. The Cavaliers' defense just needs to hold them to a field goal below that average.

The Fighting Irish boast one of the best rushing attacks in college football, and that actually works in favor of the Cavaliers covering this spread.

The Cavaliers field the nation's 127th-ranked pass defense, allowing 282.0 yards per game. But the Irish won’t abandon who they are just for one matchup. The Fighting Irish's rushing attack will keep the clock moving, with their passing game taking a back seat.

Finally, the combined record of Fighting Irish opponents this season is 30-35. The Cavaliers are one of the better teams they’ve faced. The Fighting Irish have been steamrolling opponents in recent weeks, but the Cavaliers have suffered just one loss greater than 22.5 points.

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Virginia vs. Notre Dame best bet

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Kobe Pace Under 34.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Fighting Irish rank 36th in the nation in rushing yards allowed, giving up an average of 126.0 per game. The Cavaliers rank 88th in the nation in rushing yards per matchup at 136.87 yards. That's fallen to just 81.7 over their last three games.

Pace has run for more than 60 yards just twice this season, though he's cleared 34.5 rushing yards in all but two of his matchups. However, the Fighting Irish are only allowing 3.5 yards per carry. Pace hasn’t run the ball more than 11 times in a game that the Cavaliers have lost. In a contest they’re likely to drop, expect Pace to run 10 or fewer times and miss this number.

Three of our best college football betting sites are offering this prop for one of your college football Week 12 predictions. Two are setting the total at 31.5, and both of those sportsbooks are offering the Under set at a worse price than what FanDuel is posting for three more yards.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Virginia vs. Notre Dame odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Virginia vs. Notre Dame game info

When: Saturday, Nov. 16
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
How to watch: NBC
Weather: 50 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph SE
Favorite: Notre Dame -22.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.