UTSA vs. Troy Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: Cure Bowl Battle of Conference Champs

The 2022 Cure Bowl will be the second game of two played on the opening day of the college football bowl season. Check out our NCAAF odds and our top college football picks for the Cure Bowl between Troy and UTSA.

The last time Troy (10-3 against the spread, 6-7 Over/Under) lost a game came all the way back in the Sun Belt Conference opener against Appalachian State. The Trojans rattled off nine straight wins after that four-point defeat to clinch the West Division. Troy then routed Coastal Carolina in the SBC Championship Game to capture its first outright conference title since 2009.

Speaking of 2009, that’s the same year that the UTSA (7-6 ATS, 8-5 O/U) football program came into existence. Fast forward to 2022 and the Roadrunners have now won back-to-back Conference USA championships. UTSA didn't lose a single league game all season and pulled away in the title game to beat North Texas by three touchdowns.

Here is our pick for the Cure Bowl matchup between Troy and UTSA (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

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UTSA vs. Troy Game Info

• Date: Friday, Dec. 16, 3 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Location: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, FL
• Weather: 73 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 10-11-mph winds NW

UTSA vs. Troy Odds

UTSA vs. Troy Odds Analysis

UTSA opened as a consensus 1.5-point favorite over Troy in the Cure Bowl. After the line briefly flipped in the middle of the week, it has settled back at UTSA -2 on Friday morning. The Roadrunners have drawn 64% of the tickets but just 34% of the handle on the spread.

Bettors are more aligned on the Over with 88% of the tickets accounting for 93% of the cash wagered. That has helped push the line up from the opening Over/Under of 54 to 57.

UTSA vs. Troy Pick

Troy -1 ★★★

The betting point spread is essentially declaring this game a toss-up and rightfully so. The last loss for both Troy and UTSA came on Sept. 17. While the Trojans did suffer the only defeat in conference play of the two teams, there’s no denying that the Sun Belt was a stronger league than Conference USA this season.

From a strength of schedule standpoint alone, it makes sense why the betting market has moved this line in the Trojans’ favor. It’s also worth noting that Troy’s defense was one of the best among Group of 5 teams all season long. Prior to the SBC title game which featured plenty of garbage time, the Trojans had held six straight opponents under 20 points.

Not to be outdone, UTSA’s offense ranked 11th nationally in scoring at 37.6 points per game. The Roadrunners also finished the year ranked 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency. With a veteran quarterback in Frank Harris, this unit is certainly potent. 

That being said, UTSA hasn’t faced a defense the caliber of Troy’s all season long, aside from a non-league matchup against Texas. The other cause for concern is the struggles of the Roadrunners’ own defense throughout the year.

Quarterback Gunnar Watson played his best game of the season in the Sun Belt title game, a positive sign for Troy heading into the bowl game. The Trojans’ rushing attack has really picked up steam over the past month as well. UTSA may struggle to contain Kimani Vidal for a full four quarters, especially if the offense is unable to sustain drives.

UTSA vs. Troy Best Odds

Caesars (-110)

Of our featured sportsbooks, Caesars is the one that bettors should prioritize when looking to back Troy ATS. In addition to obtaining a half-point of value over the shops listing the spread at Troy -1.5, Caesars also has standard -110 odds as the accompanying price. All other major sportsbooks that have the Trojans favored by 1 are requiring bettors to lay -115 odds. 

Because the point spread is sitting so close to pick’em, it’s also worth exploring what’s available as far as moneyline prices. After all, laying a single point with Troy is essentially the same as betting the Trojans to win the game outright by any margin. 

Currently, the best Troy moneyline price in the market is -115. While betting the moneyline would eliminate a potential push, the likelihood of Troy winning by exactly one point is pretty slim. As such, bettors are advised to save five cents. 

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