UAB vs. Western Kentucky Picks, Predictions College Football Week 8: High-Stakes Conference USA Showdown
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are short home favorites for Friday's college football clash with the UAB Blazers. Read on for our top UAB-Western Kentucky picks and predictions.
Coming into the season, many considered UAB (3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U) one of the Conference USA favorites. The Blazers suffered a surprising loss to Rice but have since rebounded with convincing victories over Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. However, UAB is yet to win on the road this year.
As for Western Kentucky (5-2 ATS, 3-4 O/U), any hopes of contending for a conference championship could depend on winning Friday’s game. The Hilltoppers more than held their own in tough road losses to Indiana and UTSA. WKU rebounded from the latter defeat with a win over Middle Tennessee.
Check out all of our top college football Week 8 picks and predictions.
Here are our Week 8 college football betting picks for UAB vs. Western Kentucky (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
UAB vs. Western Kentucky Game Info
- Date: Friday, Oct. 21, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: CBSSN
- Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY
- Weather: 60 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 10-mph S winds
UAB vs. Western Kentucky Odds
UAB vs. Western Kentucky Odds Analysis
As of Friday morning, the consensus spread has dropped from the opening line of Western Kentucky -2.5 to -1.5 This is largely the result of 69% of the tickets and 60% of the handle backing UAB as the visitor.
The Over/Under has grown from an opening number of 57.5 to 58.5 as of Friday morning. The Over has received 74% of the tickets and 65% of the cash.
UAB vs. Western Kentucky Picks
- Side: UAB +1.5 (-112 via FanDuel) ★★★
- Total: Under 57.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★
- Prop: Western Kentucky team total Under 29.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★
UAB vs. Western Kentucky ATS Pick
UAB +1.5 (-112) ★★★
While most betting action adjusted the point spread at least one full point in UAB’s favor, FanDuel continues to linger only a half-point off from the opening number. All things considered, the Blazers are more experienced and well-rounded. Taking the points, or even playing UAB on the moneyline, is the best side bet.
The Blazers have one of college football's best rushing attacks. They rank an FBS fifth, with a 246.6 rushing yards per game average. Sophomore tailback DeWayne McBride is their ground game's focal point, but quarterback Dylan Hopkins can also make plays with his legs.
Western Kentucky’s defense only allows 113.7 rushing yards per game (ranked 22nd). The difference-maker for UAB could very well be Hopkins’ arm.
The run game may UAB's best offensive strategy, but Hopkins can also get the job done through the air. The Hilltoppers’ defense is far more vulnerable against the pass than the run this season.
On the other side of the ball, WKU hasn't faced a D like UAB’s. The Blazers have been particularly stingy against the pass this season, allowing only 184 yards per game.
UAB vs. Western Kentucky O/U Pick
Under 57.5 (-110) ★★★
Although the betting public's clear choice in the game total is the Over, it's worth pursuing the contrarian side. As discussed above, both teams' defensive point of strength helps them match up well against the opposing side’s O-line.
For UAB, establishing the ground game will be an offensive priority. On the flip side, Western Kentucky looks to continue riding the arm of West Florida transfer QB, Austin Reed. Much like the Blazers’ rushing attack, WKU ranks top-5 nationally in passing yards per game (355.8). For Reed, this is the toughest pass defense he's faced since becoming starting quarterback.
UAB is one of Conference USA's top defensive teams. While the Hilltoppers weren’t quite as high-powered offensively in 2019 and ‘20 as they are this season, it's worth noting that the Blazers held them to just 20 and 14 points, respectively.
Bettors should also note last week’s defensive performance against Charlotte. The 49ers may not be a good all-around team, but QB Chris Reynolds is one of the best in Conference USA. The Blazers limited him to just 214 yards and also forced a pair of interceptions.
If UAB can get the run game going, the pace of this game could to be much more to the Blazers’ liking. This only benefits an experienced D-line in its quest to deny WKU's fast-paced offense.
UAB vs. Western Kentucky Prop Pick
Western Kentucky team total Under 29.5 (-110) ★★★
As previously mentioned, Western Kentucky hasn't yet faced a defense with UAB’s caliber. Reed has been phenomenal in his transition to FBS football, but how will he fare against one of the top pass defenses?
So far this season, WKU surpassed this team total prop line in five of seven games played. However, three of those came against poor competition, while a fourth went to overtime.
The two matchups where the Hilltoppers were held Under 29.5 points are also the team’s two losses to date. Defensively, UAB is much closer to being on a par with Troy and UTSA as opposed to Hawaii or FIU.
Where to Bet on UAB vs. Western Kentucky Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
UAB-Western Kentucky picks made 10/19/2022 at 2:31 p.m. ET
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