Texas vs. Ohio State Prediction: Week 1 Odds & Early Best Bets

The college football season starts off with a bang this year as Ohio State and Texas kick off their seasons on Saturday, Aug. 30, from Ohio Stadium in Columbus at noon ET as FOX's Week 1 Big Noon Kickoff game.

Making a Texas vs. Ohio State prediction this far out isn't easy, with the Longhorns and Buckeyes leading the college football national championship odds and recently being voted No. 1 and No. 2 in USA Today's coaches poll. But are the defending champs not getting enough respect?

🏈 Texas vs. Ohio State odds

Check out the latest live college football odds for Texas vs. Ohio State from our best sports betting sites.

🆚 Who will win Texas vs. Ohio State?

✅ Moneyline pick: Ohio State will win (-130 via BetMGM)

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The Buckeyes won the national title last season, and though they lost a lot from that team to the NFL, they return arguably the two best players in the country. With Jeremiah Smith leading the offense and Caleb Downs directing the defense, plus the Buckeyes playing in the Horseshoe, my Texas vs. Ohio State best bet at this point is for Ryan Day's team to win.

While Arch Manning leads the Heisman Trophy odds, he's unproven. Getting his first real start (sorry, UL Monroe and Mississippi State) on the road in The Shoe is about as tough as it gets. Since 2018, Ohio State has only lost in Columbus three times - twice to Michigan and once to Oregon. I'm projecting a 24-20 win for the Buckeyes as part of my early Texas vs. Ohio State prediction.

🔮 My early Texas vs. Ohio State prediction & best bets

🌰 Ohio State -2.5

📊 Best odds: -115 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.70)
🔢 Implied probability: 53.49%

It's not surprising to see the buzz around Manning given his rating as a recruit and who his uncles are, but to assume he'll walk into Columbus and hit the ground running is shortsighted. He's thrown just 95 career passes, and 72 of them came last season against three defenses that finished 98th or worse in SP+ on defense ... Ohio State finished No. 1.

Even with so much gone from the Buckeyes' defense, including coordinator Jim Knowles, the SP+ projections for this upcoming season have Ohio State's defense ranked second. The Longhorns rank just 126th in returning offensive production, too, losing four of five offensive line starters and their top three leading receivers. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes' defense has three All-American candidates in Downs, Sonny Styles, and Davison Igbinosun. 

While Ohio State will also have a new starting QB - likely Julian Sayin, but Day hasn't made it official yet - the Buckeyes return the best receiver in the country (Smith) and best No. 2 receiver in the country (Carnell Tate), and they added one of the best tight ends in the country (Max Klare from Purdue).

With more returning production, better pass catchers for their new QB, and home-field advantage, the defending champions are in better shape heading into this matchup.

📉 Texas vs. Ohio State Under 48.5

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
🔢 Implied probability: 52.38%

Expectations are sky high for Manning and Sayin, two former five-star recruits, but this game could be a slugfest with both teams expected to have top-notch defenses again. While many of the star defenders who shined in their College Football Playoff semifinal clash last year are gone, the Buckeyes and Longhorns aren't short on defensive talent this year.

The SP+ projections for this upcoming season have these two as the best defenses in the country. For as good as Ohio State looks with Downs, Styles, and Igbinosun, Texas has even more star power. The Longhorns bring back Anthony Hill Jr., Colin Simmons, Trey Moore, Michael Taaffee, and Malik Muhammad. This game is loaded with future NFL defenders.

So while Manning and Sayin will have all the hype going into this No. 1 vs. No. 2 game, defense should be the biggest storyline coming out of it.

🎯 Best TD scorer bets for Texas vs. Ohio State

🔎 Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best college football odds for your college football picks!

🐂 Texas TD scorer to watch: CJ Baxter, RB

📊 Best odds: +105 via DraftKings ($10 to win $10.50)
🔢 Implied probability: 48.78%

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A former five-star recruit, C.J. Baxter missed all of last season after tearing his ACL. But as a true freshman two years ago, he looked like the next star running back to come out of Austin.

Even with Quintrevion Wisner back, Baxter should see a steady dose of carries against Ohio State. Wisner totaled just six touchdowns last season as Texas' lead back, while his backup, Jaydon Blue, had 14 scores on nearly 100 fewer touches.

When Baxter and Wisner were both freshmen two years ago, Baxter saw 162 touches and found the end zone five times, while Wisner had just 12 touches, scoring once. As long as Baxter is healthy, I'd expect him to be a co-starter with Wisner this year, especially after the 230-pounder forced 29 missed tackles and ripped off 18 runs of 10-plus yards as a backup two seasons ago.

🧲 Ohio State TD scorer to watch: Jeremiah Smith, WR

📊 Best odds: -105 via DraftKings ($10 to win $9.52)
🔢 Implied probability: 51.22%

Even with a quarterback change, don't expect Smith's numbers to drop off. In fact, Sayin should be an upgrade over Will Howard if he lives up to the hype. Either way, the best receiver in college football is poised to find the end zone against the Longhorns this time after he couldn't in the playoff game last year.

Ranked No. 1 on Bruce Feldman's annual college football Freaks List, Smith should be even better as a 19-year-old this season after finishing top 10 in the country among receivers in yards per route run last year (3.15). As a true freshman last season, he led the Power 4 in receiving touchdowns (15) and scored in 12 of 16 games (75%) for the Buckeyes.

These will likely be the longest odds Smith sees all season to find paydirt. Take advantage of that while you still can.

📈 Texas vs. Ohio State odds movement

Odds via Caesars.

• As the Manning hype continues to drive college football discourse, the Longhorns have seen the betting line move in their direction
• Don't be surprised if the Buckeyes are closer to -1.5 by the time Aug. 30 rolls around, which is why it may pay to wait for Ohio State backers
• The game total has been slowly dropping since opening at a surprisingly high number (50.5), and I wouldn't be shocked if it's closer to 46.5 when this game kicks, given how loaded these defenses are this season

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🏈 College football odds pages

💵 Best college football betting sites

Looking to bet on Texas vs. Ohio State? Check out our best college football betting sites and the best sportsbook promos for the college football season:

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
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