Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 9 Betting Preview

No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 20 LSU meet in one of the three ranked vs. ranked SEC matchups of the week, and I break it down with my Texas A&M vs. LSU prediction. 

I recognize how tough it is to win at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge at night (kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC), but I'm still backing the Aggies as 2.5-point betting favorites.

Adding to my college football picks is a play on the Under for a Garrett Nussmeier player prop given LSU’s offensive struggles. It’s all part of our college football predictions for Week 9.

📊 Texas A&M vs. LSU odds: Week 9

See the latest college football odds for every game in Week 9.

✅ Texas A&M vs. LSU expert picks

See our experts' college football picks for every Week 9 game.

🏈 Texas A&M vs. LSU preview & score prediction

Is LSU head coach Brian Kelly going to start drawing comparisons to ex-Penn State head coach James Franklin about not being able to win the “big game?” Kelly is now 5-10 across 15 games against ranked opponents during his time at LSU. I'm therefore backing Texas A&M, which is off to its first 7-0 start since 1994.

Texas A&M started 6-1 last season while outscoring opponents by an average of 36-21, only to lose four of its final five outings. The Aggies thus far are outscoring opponents 36-23 this year. However, I'm banking on head coach Mike Elko stressing the little things to help this year’s team avoid a similar late-season slide.

Aggies are elite in havoc metric

Havoc is what a lot of experts use when evaluating a team while trying to project how disruptive it is on both sides of the ball. Texas A&M thus far ranks better than top-ranked Ohio State in both offensive havoc allowed and defensive Havoc created.

Texas A&M has what it takes to navigate a difficult road environment like Tiger Stadium. It entered last week ranked in the top 25 in penalties and starting field position, and the team only committed seven penalties while converting eight of 14 third and fourth-down opportunities amid a difficult road environment in Fayetteville.

This line has hit the key number of three at several of the best sports betting sites. I'm taking advantage of the best number and price at Caesars, as its -110 odds at a 52.38% implied probability would net $9.09 in profit if Texas A&M covers.

✅ Score prediction: Texas A&M 28, LSU 24

🆚 Key matchup to watch

Garrett Nussmeier vs. Texas A&M's secondary

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier faces a Texas A&M defense that entered last week ranked 108th in explosiveness allowed. But the Aggies' more vulnerable area has been their run stopping, as they allowed 10 explosive runs during a win against Arkansas. Now they've given up seven 20-plus-yard plays during conference action (the third-most in the conference). 

Meanwhile, Nussmeier hasn't been enjoying success pushing the ball downfield this year. He's completed just one of 16 attempts 25-plus yards downfield. That means his most likely path to hitting the Over on the signal-caller's longest completion prop is banking on a long catch-and-run.

I expect LSU to hunt its big plays on the ground against a vulnerable Aggies run defense.

✅ Best player prop bet: Garrett Nussmeier longest pass completion Under 38.5 yards (-115 via bet365)

📈 Texas A&M vs. LSU betting trends

🌤️ Texas A&M vs. LSU weather

There's a 90% chance of a severe thunderstorm moving through the Baton Rouge area Saturday night, bringing 0.60 inches of rain. That's likely to cause a delayed start (or mid-game delay if it arrives later), which could affect the usually raucous Tiger Stadium crowd.

📺 How to watch Texas A&M vs. LSU

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 25
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, La.)
• TV: ABC