Tennessee vs. Florida Player Props: Best Bets & TD Picks for Week 13

Tennessee’s passing game is the focal point for two of my three Tennessee vs. Florida player props for Saturday’s prime-time SEC clash from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla. (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC). 

My in-depth breakdown of this contest — which features No. 20 Tennessee as a 3.5- to 4-point betting favorite — is part of our college football predictions for Week 13.

✅ Tennessee vs. Florida player prop bets

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 13.

💰 Best Tennessee vs. Florida player props

⬆️ Joey Aguilar player prop: Over 272.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar has shredded the last three SEC defenses he’s faced, throwing for 268 yards at Alabama, 396 at Kentucky and 393 versus Oklahoma. Aguilar also lit up Georgia (371) and Mississippi State (335) earlier in the year.

So the junior transfer from Appalachian State shouldn’t have much problem carving up a Florida secondary that just surrendered 301 yards to Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss. Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen (324 yards) also torched the Gators, as did Texas’ Arch Manning (263). Overall, Florida ranks 75th nationally against the pass.

BetMGM has the best number and price on this Tennessee vs. Florida player prop. The implied win probability at -115 odds is 53.49%. Profit on a successful $10 bet: $8.70.

⬆️ Jadan Baugh player prop: Over 78.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee held its four nonconference opponents — Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB and New Mexico State — to a total of 202 rushing yards. And Syracuse (103 yards) had more than half that total in the opener. How has that same Vols front seven held up against SEC competition? Not well.

In six league games, Tennessee has surrendered 1,099 ground yards — or 183.2 per outing. So I’m taking a shot with Florida running back Jadan Baugh, who is overdue for a breakout performance after churning out just 72, 64 and 61 yards the last three weeks. Baugh also will be running with a chip on his shoulder, after the Vols held him to 25 yards on 12 carries in Knoxville last year.

Head to FanDuel for this Tennessee vs. Florida player prop. The -114 odds imply a win probability of 53.27%. Pocket $8.77 on a winning $10 bet.

6️⃣ Best Tennessee vs. Florida touchdown scorer bet

🔥 Braylon Staley TD pick: Score anytime touchdown (+120) ⭐⭐

Florida has only surrendered 10 passing touchdowns this season. However, eight of those were in the last six games. Now here comes Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and his 22 passing touchdowns, six of which have gone to wide receiver Braylon Staley.

Staley has scored four times in the last four games, with single TDs against Alabama and New Mexico State sandwiched around a pair of scores against Oklahoma. Translation: Staley is on a TD heater, and I’m betting that the sophomore stays hot at Florida.

DraftKings’ +120 odds on this Tennessee vs. Florida touchdown scorer prop lead the market and carry an implied win probability of 45.45%. Bet $10 to win $12.

📊 Tennessee vs. Florida anytime touchdown scorer odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 13.

📺 How to watch Tennessee vs. Florida

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 22
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, Fla.)
• TV: ABC