Tennessee vs. LSU Picks, Predictions for College Football Week 6: Vols Laying Points in Death Valley
The Tennessee Volunteers head to Death Valley for a Week 6 clash with the LSU Tigers undefeated at 4-0. Check out our top Tennessee-LSU picks.
Tennessee is 4-0 overall and 3-1 against the spread but has had a couple of close calls. The Volunteers topped Pittsburgh 34-27 in overtime in Week 2 and then beat Florida 38-33 last week but failed to cover the 11.5-point spread.
LSU failed to cover an 8-point spread in a 21-17 win over Auburn last week. That was the Tigers first ATS miss since their season-opening upset loss at the hands of FSU.
Be sure to check out our college football best bets and all of our Week 6 picks.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 6 Tennessee-LSU matchup (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tennessee vs. LSU Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 8, noon ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Weather: 80 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 10-11 mph winds (blowing northeast)
Tennessee vs. LSU Odds
Tennessee vs. LSU Odds Analysis
The spread has grown in favor of Tennessee. The consensus line opened at -2.5 but is now up to -3 with 68% of the tickets and 52% of the handle backing the Vols.
There's been greater line movement on the Over/Under. The consensus opening line of 61.5 is up to 64.5 as of Saturday morning. However, the Over has drawn only a slight majority of the handle at 53%.
Tennessee vs. LSU Picks
Tennessee vs. LSU ATS Pick
LSU +3 (-110) ★★★
Tennessee may field one of the country's most explosive offenses, but the Vols will be encountering their toughest defensive opponent to date on Saturday. As such, it’s very difficult to advise laying points of any kind. Tennessee will also be visiting one of the hardest venues in the nation for road teams.
There were several instances when Hendon Hooker looked uncomfortable in the pocket during Week 4 against Florida. While he ultimately rose to the occasion to produce a massive game statistically, it will be much tougher sledding against LSU’s nasty defensive front.
The Tigers are allowing only 87.3 rushing yards per game, the eighth-fewest in the FBS. Tennessee will struggle to run between the tackles. Then if LSU can seal the edges and prevent Hooker from using his legs to turn broken plays into positive yardage, this game will turn into a back-and-forth affair.
The other big storyline coming into this contest is the health of LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. Head coach Brian Kelly said on Tuesday that his passer will be ready after getting knocked out of a Week 5 win with an injury.
Tennessee’s defense has been far from spectacular in 2022, especially against Florida two weeks ago. With Daniels possessing similar dual-threat capabilities as Florida’s Anthony Richardson, the Tigers should be able to score and keep pace in this matchup.
Tennessee vs. LSU O/U Pick
Over 64.5 (-110) ★★
Although the best of the number is now gone, the Over still feels like the top option for this game. It falls in line with the fast-paced style both teams like to play.
Josh Heupel may only be in his second year as head coach in Knoxville, but he's already transformed the Volunteers’ offense into an up-tempo machine. Tennessee has scored 34-plus points in each of its four games in 2022. One can debate how well Pittsburgh and Florida stack up relative to LSU, but neither team is a slouch defensively and the Vols didn't struggle to score.
Heupel’s emphasis on an up-tempo offensive system has resulted in Tennessee averaging 77.8 plays per game this season. Although LSU’s offense isn’t synonymous with speed, the Tigers are actually just behind in plays run per game at 77.3. Nationally, both teams rank in the top 25 in plays run per contest.
With each side happy to push the pace offensively, Saturday’s game could turn into a full-fledged shootout. A midday kickoff means temperatures will be much higher than for a night game, too. The defenses could tire out quickly in that heat while chasing around Hooker and Daniels.
Tennessee vs. LSU Prop Pick
LSU team total: Over 31.5 (+100) ★★
It’s a bit perplexing to see LSU’s team total so heavily juiced to the Under at 31.5. The Tigers’ offense hasn't scored more than 31 points against a Power 5 opponent in 2022. However, Florida State, Mississippi State, and Auburn all possess defenses that aren’t worse than Tennessee’s unit.
The Volunteers gave up nearly 600 yards and 33 points to Florida. That poor defensive performance was the continuation of Tennessee’s struggles against SEC competition from 2021.
Five of their eight conference opponents scored 31-plus points against the Vols in 2022. The only ones that didn’t were Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, three very poor offensive squads.
Until Tennessee actually displays a defensive improvement, it’s worth riding with LSU to eclipse this team total prop, especially given the +100 price on the Over.
Where to Bet on Tennessee-LSU Picks
Tennessee-LSU picks made 10/5/2022 at 3:15 p.m. ET
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