TCU vs. BYU Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview

No. 12 BYU looks to avoid a second straight loss and remain in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot as I break down my TCU vs. BYU prediction. The Cougars are a 3.5-point betting favorite across the market for this Big 12 tilt, which kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah, on Saturday night (ESPN).

There is likely to be much overreaction as both teams’ offenses struggled last week, but I make the case that the Over is the best play. It’s all part of our college football Week 12 predictions.

✅ TCU vs. BYU prediction & expert picks

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📊 TCU vs. BYU odds

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🏈 TCU vs. BYU preview & score prediction

BYU was just knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens with last week’s 29-7 loss at Texas Tech. That dropped the Cougars to 0-5 ATS in their last five November games. 

However, while I believe there is a chance for them to fail to cover their sixth straight November game, I am backing the trend that the Over is 7-1 in TCU’s last eight games as an underdog against AP top 15 teams.

Treat BYU’s loss to Texas Tech as a one-off

Oddsmakers tipped their hands last week that BYU’s undefeated run was likely coming to an end, listing the Cougars as 10.5-point underdogs in Lubbock. 

The doubts proved valid, but perhaps we should be giving more praise to Texas Tech and less blame to BYU. The Red Raiders entered the week as the only team with eight wins by 23-plus points and with the second-best scoring margin in the country (30.3 points).

This is still a balanced BYU squad that, despite managing just seven points, entered ranked 25th in Offensive SP+, 31st in offensive success rate, 28th in average yards per play, and 22nd in rushing success rate.   

For TCU, quarterback Josh Hoover masks a lot of the inefficiencies that the Horned Frogs have running the football. He has a Total QBR of 75 or higher in six of nine starts and ranks in the top 10 nationally in passing yards and touchdowns per game.

TCU and BYU combined to score 24 points in losses last week, but I am making the contrarian play on this Over while ignoring last week’s performances.

BetMGM is one of the only best sports betting sites offering an O/U of 50.5, as the total is at 51.5 on the high end of the market. Over backers will find the best price through BetMGM’s -115 odds (53.49% implied probability), which would net $8.70 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

Score prediction: BYU 28, TCU 27

🆚 TCU vs. BYU matchup to watch

Bear Bachmeier vs. TCU’s front seven

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier is second on the team in carries (105) and rushing yards (420). To illustrate how much of the running game falls on him and LJ Martin, the third-leading rusher for BYU has just 101 rushing yards on seven attempts.

Bachmeier entered last week with a 51.8% rushing success rate, generating a first down on more than 35% of his carries. Nearly 20% of his runs gained 10 or more yards, so he doesn’t even need that much volume to surpass this total given his penchant for explosive runs.

Best prop bet: Bear Bachmeier Over 45.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 TCU vs. BYU betting trends

🌤️ TCU vs. BYU weather

Temperatures will drop into the mid-40s on Saturday night after a mild 65-degree day in Provo. There is a slight 25% chance of precipitation, but wind gusts will be a non-factor at 8 mph.  

📺 How to watch TCU vs. BYU

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 15
• Kickoff: 10:15 p.m. ET
• Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo, Utah)
• TV: ESPN