TCU vs. Baylor Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Horned Frogs Face Another Road Test
The TCU Horned Frogs have more wins all-time over the Baylor Bears (57) than any other school. Check out our top TCU-Baylor college football picks and predictions for Week 12.
The fourth-ranked TCU Horned Frogs will continue their pursuit of a perfect regular season on Saturday when they face the Baylor Bears.
Last week’s win over Texas was perhaps one of the most convincing that TCU (8-1-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U) has had all season. The Horned Frogs' defense stepped up and proved that there is more to this team than a prolific offensive attack in the process. TCU also clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with the victory.
Meanwhile, last weekend did not go so well for Baylor (6-4 ATS, 7-3 O/U). The Bears came into their game against Kansas State riding a three-game winning streak. That went up in flames as Baylor lost by four touchdowns at home.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 12 matchup between TCU and Baylor (odds via BetMGM and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 12.
TCU vs. Baylor Game Info
Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, Noon ET
TV: FOX
Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Weather: 48 degrees, 19% chance of precipitation, 4-6 mph winds NE
TCU vs. Baylor Odds
TCU vs. Baylor Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers opened TCU as a small favorite on the road for this Big 12 contest. The college football betting market was willing to back the Horned Frogs at the opening line of -2. The current spread now sits at TCU -2.5.
Of course, with a top-four standing in the College Football Playoff Rankings, it's no surprise to find that TCU is the public side. The difference between this game and prior matchups is that the Horned Frogs have also taken an overwhelming majority of the money. At DraftKings Sportsbook, more than 90% of all ATS bets and handle is on TCU as the road favorite.
As for the game total, an opening line of 56.5 has increased slightly to the current market consensus of 58. Once again, the vast majority of bets (73%) are positively correlated with the line move to the Over.
TCU vs. Baylor Picks
TCU vs. Baylor ATS Pick
TCU -2.5 (-110) ★★★
Despite last week’s statement win, TCU still has to believe that there is no margin for error when it comes to making the College Football Playoff. As such, bettors should anticipate the Horned Frogs being focused once again on Saturday. Baylor may not be as strong as a year ago, but this is still a formidable opponent, especially with the game taking place in Waco.
While Baylor has notably been much better defensively at home compared to on the road, few teams that have visited McLane Stadium this season possess the kind of dual-threat offensive attack that TCU brings to the table.
In last week’s physical game against Texas, it was largely the Kendre Miller show for TCU. Although the Bears come in allowing 16 more rushing yards per game compared to a year ago, one has to believe that the Horned Frogs will have a more distinct advantage against the Baylor secondary.
As such, bettors are wise to expect a bounce-back effort from Max Duggan after he threw for only 124 yards last week. With Quentin Johnston and more at his disposal, there are legitimate concerns as to how Baylor will manage to cover all of TCU’s weapons in the passing game.
The Bears are more than capable of putting up a fight and making this a close game. However, there is very little to suggest that Baylor is capable of actually pulling off an outright upset over the Big 12’s best team.
TCU vs. Baylor O/U Pick
Under 58 (-110) ★★
Despite the market favoring the Over, one can’t help but consider going contrarian when it comes to the game total. With the line now having moved 1.5 points relative to the opening number, buying back on the Under makes even more sense.
The reason why so many people came away impressed with TCU’s win over Texas last week was due to the play of the Horned Frogs’ defense. Many felt that a physically imposing Texas offensive line would have its way in the trenches. That was hardly the case, as TCU held running back Bijan Robinson to just 29 yards.
Fast-forward to this week’s matchup and Baylor’s rushing attack poses another challenge. However, if last week was any indication, one has to like TCU’s chances of holding the Bears well below their per-game average of 193.2 rushing yards. An inability to trust Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen leads to even more doubt with regard to this offense.
On the other side of the ball, it’s worth noting that Baylor’s defense has played better at home this season. The Bears might be better equipped to slow down the Horned Frogs at home on Saturday.
TCU vs. Baylor Prop Pick
Baylor to finish with 21-30 points (+195) ★★
Baylor’s offense has truly been all-or-nothing this season. One week, the Bears are scoring 40-plus points on the road. Then, there are games like last Saturday in which Shapen threw a pair of interceptions and Baylor failed to score more than three points at home.
After such a poor showing last week, one has to believe that Baylor’s offense will be better against TCU. Plus, for as impressive as the Horned Frogs were defensively last week, it marked the first time all year in which they held an FBS opponent with a .500 record or better to under 24 points.
With the home crowd behind them and a rushing attack that is more than capable, the Bears should be good for at least 21-24 points in this matchup.
Where to Bet on TCU vs. Baylor
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TCU-Baylor picks made 11/16/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET
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