SEC Best Bets for Week 12: Expert ATS Predictions & Player Props This Week

Our SEC best bets for Week 12 lean into a pair of highly-ranked home favorites to take care of business and keep their College Football Playoff plans on schedule.

We’re also highlighting a potential shootout in the Arkansas vs. LSU rivalry game as part of our college football Week 12 predictions.

🏈 SEC best bets & expert picks: Week 12

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12 based on the latest college football odds.

🔮 My best SEC predictions this week

🤠 Texas A&M -17.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I like this spot for Texas A&M against a South Carolina team that is 0-3 on the road (1-2 ATS) this season, losing their road games by an average of 11.7 PPG to LSU, Missouri, and Ole Miss. The Aggies have been rolling teams, winning four of their past five games by 17 or more points.

South Carolina's run defense (allowing 165.1 yards per game) ranks 89th in FBS and should wilt under the pressure of the Aggies' rushing attack, which averages 205.1 yards per game. The Gamecocks rank 93rd in FPI's adjusted offensive efficiency and won't have the firepower to keep pace.

The best line at publish time comes from FanDuel with -110 odds on Texas A&M -17.5. The implied probability at those odds is 52.38%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $9.09

🐶 Georgia -6.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though it feels like we're seeing the best version of the Texas offense coming into this marquee matchup with Georgia, the defense is starting to slide. The Longhorns permitting 31-plus points to both Vanderbilt and Mississippi State over their last two games leads me to believe that Mike Bobo's offense (eighth nationally in adjusted efficiency) can craft a quality plan of attack.

I'm also having a hard time looking beyond the Longhorns' season-long struggles on the road. Texas is 0-4 ATS in road games, including outright losses at Ohio State and Florida by margins greater than this spread.

The best line at publish time comes from BetMGM with -105 odds on Georgia -6.5. The implied probability at those odds is 51.22%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $9.52.

⬆️ Arkansas-LSU Over 57.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arkansas games are 7-2 on Overs (77.7%) this season, but LSU has had only two out of eight games against FBS opponents go Over (25%). The two times it happened, LSU gave up 31 and 49 points to high-octane offenses (Vanderbilt and Texas A&M) while contributing 24-plus points offensively in each.

Those two games are the only two all season in which LSU has scored at least 24 points against FBS opponents. It's about to happen again against an Arkansas defense that allows 36.6 PPG (127th in FBS). Offensively, the Razorbacks have averaged 33.4 PPG in SEC play and haven't scored fewer than 24 points in a conference game.

DraftKings lists this line at 57.5 with -110 odds on Over. The implied probability at those odds is 52.38%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $9.09.

💰 My best SEC player props this week

⬆️ Rueben Owens II player prop: Over 62.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rueben Owens II should be a beneficiary of this week’s matchup with South Carolina’s 89th-ranked run defense. Over their past six games, the Gamecocks have permitted six opposing running backs to clear this rushing line, with four of them clearing 100 yards.

Owens II is averaging 6.0 YPC on the year and has cleared this rushing line in three of his past five games, twice eclipsing 100 rushing yards in that stretch.

The best line on this rushing prop comes from BetMGM, with -115 odds on Over 62.5 rushing yards. The implied probability at those odds is 53.49%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $8.70.

⬇️ John Mateer player prop: Under 206.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though Alabama has given up 221.0 passing yards per game over its past three contests, the Crimson Tide rank eighth nationally in allowing only 164.1 passing yards per game on the season. After throwing for 270-plus yards in four straight games to begin the year, John Mateer hasn't maintained the same volume since returning from hand surgery.

Over his four games since coming back, Mateer has cleared this passing line just once and has been held below 160 passing yards in two of four games.

Caesars lists Mateer's passing line at 206.5 yards with -115 odds on Under. The implied probability at those odds is 53.49%, and the profit on a $10 bet would be $8.70.