Oregon State vs. Oregon Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 13: Can Beavers Cover Big Spread?

Check out our Oregon State vs. Oregon prediction for their Week 13 college football matchup based on the best NCAAF odds.

Mike Spector

Last updated: November 24, 2023 4:05 PM EST • 6 min read

In-state rivals Oregon State Beavers and Oregon Ducks face off on Saturday, and we offer our best Oregon State vs. Oregon prediction based on the best college football odds.

Oregon State faced a substantial setback in their 22-20 narrow loss to Washington last Saturday, a defeat that removed them from contention for the Pac-12 Championship Game. This marked the end of their remarkable streak of 10 consecutive home victories. It also marked their second failure to cover the spread in the last fifteen games as home favorites, dating back to the start of 2021.

Oregon (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12) kept its College Football Playoff hopes alive with a 49-13 dismantling of Arizona State. Ducks QB Bo Nix bolstered his Heisman Trophy odds resume with a 404-yard and six-touchdown performance. The Ducks have won five straight — four of them by 14 or more points — following a road loss at Washington.

As part of our Week 13 college football predictions, here is our best Oregon State vs. Oregon prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Oregon State vs. Oregon prediction: Week 13

Oregon State +14 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We often factor in the public's perception of recent performances when making our weekly selections, and what we have seen out of Oregon State and Oregon suggests that the Ducks are likely to be a popular favorite. However, we suspect oddsmakers have taken that into account with their two-touchdown spread, and we expect a fierce rivalry game like this one to play out much closer than the spread indicates.

Oregon State was given enough respect to kick off as 2.5-point favorites against an undefeated Washington team last week. Meanwhile, Oregon is up to No. 4 in the SP+ rankings and is one of six teams ranked in the top 17 of SP+ Offense and Defense. Nix ranks in the top two of all FBS quarterbacks in completion percentage, passing touchdowns, and passing yards per game. While he is on pace to break the NCAA record for completion percentage (he has completed 78.1% of passes entering this week), the Beavers have a recipe for success in limiting his prolific numbers, just as they did to Heisman contender Michael Penix Jr. last week.

Oregon State was the first team to hold Penix under a 56% completion percentage and to fewer than 256 yards passing (he finished with 162 yards through the air) this season. Its secondary is top 30 in both EPA/Pass Allowed and Passing Success Rate. The fact that Nix only attempts 35% of his passes at least 10 yards downfield will allow them to crowd the line of scrimmage and aid a run defense that ranks outside the top 70 in Rushing Success Rate.

The Beavers also have a blueprint for keeping Oregon's top-scoring offense off the field. Oregon State held the ball for over 37 minutes against Washington, mainly because its offensive line allows it to churn out rushing yards as PFF's top-graded run-blocking team in the country.

This is a four-star play because of the precedent Oregon State has set as big underdogs in this rivalry. In the last two games where Oregon has been at least 13-point favorites against the Beavers (in 2019 and 2020), Oregon State has won outright once and provided 6.5 points worth of cushion in covering as 20.5-point underdogs in a 24-10 loss at Autzen Stadium in 2019.

Oregon State is 3-1 as an underdog since the start of last season, while Oregon is more susceptible at home, covering the spread in four of six home games while going 4-0-1 ATS on the road this season.

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Oregon State vs. Oregon best odds

DraftKings (-108)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
+14	+13.5	+13.5	+13.5	+13.5
-108	-110	-110	-110	-110

While a two-touchdown spread was available at most of the best sportsbooks when we first placed this bet, DraftKings is the lone shop still offering the original line. Oregon State is a no-play at anything lower than +14, but we would not put anyone past waiting to see if any +14.5s or higher pop up, given how likely it is that Oregon will be a popular favorite.

Oregon State vs. Oregon odds

Oregon State vs. Oregon odds analysis

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites with reported line movement since its opening number on Sunday. DraftKings first lowered from -14 to -13.5, but Ducks backers have since pushed the line back to -14. Before the Week 12 games kicked off, Caesars and DraftKings had look-ahead lines of -11.5 and -12 for this rivalry. The slight majority of early wagers have backed the Ducks (55/45 split), as they are one of the country's most profitable ATS teams (9-2).

There is a one-point range on this game's total, as BetMGM is on the low end at 61.5, while FanDuel and BetRivers are the only shops offering an O/U of 62.5. The most significant line movement has happened at FanDuel, where the total has shot up from a low of 58.5 to 62.5 in a little more than 24 hours. The line has come down a half-point at bet365 from a high of 62.5 to 62. The Over has cashed in the last three meetings between these teams, exceeding the projected total by an average of 11.3 points per game.

Oregon State vs. Oregon game info

When: Friday, Nov. 24 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
How to watch: FOX
Weather: 51 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph N

Oregon State-Oregon prediction made 11/20/2023 at 4:26 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”