Oregon vs. Georgia Week 1 College Football Picks: Bulldogs Start Season as Reigning Champs

Henry John

Last updated: September 8, 2022 5:24 PM EDT • 5 min read

The Georgia Bulldogs begin their National Championship defense against the Oregon Ducks in a not-so-neutral site game in Atlanta on Saturday. We break it down with our top Oregon-Georgia picks.

The Week 1 college football betting slate is headlined by three ranked vs. ranked matchups. One of these marquee contests features the Ducks taking on the defending National Champion Bulldogs.

Head coach Dan Lanning takes over at Oregon after coordinating the dominant Georgia defense last season. It’s a bit interesting to note that Lanning brought very little in terms of transfer players or assistant coaches. Luckily, the Ducks are returning 15 starters, including some studs on defense.

On the heels of winning the College Football Playoff National Championship in January, Georgia is once again expected to be a top-three team this season, according to power rankings. For those expectations to materialize, head coach Kirby Smart and his staff need to adequately replace eight defensive starters. The Bulldogs set a record for losing five defensive players in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Here are our college football picks for the Week 1 matchup between Oregon and Georgia (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Oregon vs. Georgia Game Info

Date: Saturday, Sept. 3, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Weather: Indoors

Oregon vs. Georgia Odds Analysis

Opening lines for this top-25 showdown listed Georgia as a 16-point favorite. The market has since leveled off at a UGA -17 consensus spread. Bettors can still obtain a half-point in either direction by carefully shopping the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

Meanwhile, the total has increased relative to the opening line of 51. Needless to say, it's a bit surprising for a game involving the Bulldogs. The majority of sportsbooks now list the Over/Under at 53.

A couple of noteworthy developments stand out in regard to this game's betting splits. At the time of writing, Oregon has attracted a slight majority (57%) of the handle at DraftKings despite more total bets on the Dawgs. The other interesting development is the heavy favoritism bettors have given the Over. Nearly 60% of all totals bets are on the Over; however, 68% of the money is backing the Under.

Oregon vs. Georgia Picks

Oregon vs. Georgia ATS Pick

Oregon +16.5 (-110) ★★★

The fact that Georgia is laying 17-plus points in its season-opener against the No. 11 team says a lot about how oddsmakers view the defending champs. All offseason, the prevalent college football narrative was that it will be extremely top-heavy this year. Thus, it's a surprise to learn that betting on Oregon as the underdog against one of the nation’s best teams is actually more of a play ON the Ducks than it is AGAINST Georgia.

Despite being hampered by injuries on both sides of the ball as well as inconsistent quarterback play, Oregon rattled off 10 wins last season. Two of the Ducks’ four losses came from Utah while a third was courtesy of some awful officiating late in the fourth quarter against Stanford.

It's easy to forget that Oregon beat Ohio State in a true road game early last year. The fact that star pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux (now in the NFL) didn't play speaks to the depth and talent the Ducks have on defense. Pairing studs like linebacker Noah Sewell and end Brandon Dorlus with defensive mastermind Lanning figures to be an ideal match right away.

How far the Ducks manage to fly in 2022 could very well come down to new quarterback Bo Nix's performance. The Auburn transfer has a reputation for making poor decisions, but he threw only three picks last season. Nix should benefit from working behind a strong offensive line in 2022.

Oregon has more than enough talent and experience on both sides of the ball to stay within this hefty number Saturday.

Oregon vs. Georgia O/U Pick

Under 54.5 (-110) ★★★

Once again, we're fading the line move when it comes to our total prediction. A couple of mainstream sportsbooks continue to list the Over/Under at 52.5, so bettors will get the best of the number by playing Under 54.5.

The first point that's worth repeating is just how talented Oregon's defense is. Despite losing six of their top eight tacklers from last season, seven starters are back for the Ducks. With a defensive-minded coach taking over the program, the outlook is quite positive.

Georgia lost eight starters and Lanning from last year’s dominant defense. The Bulldogs surrendered only 10.2 points per game over 15 games en route to winning the title last season. What's even more astonishing, this includes the 41 points Alabama put up in the SEC Championship Game, Georgia’s only loss.

What many bettors fail to realize about Georgia’s defense is its lack of returning starters doesn’t necessarily mean there will be a significant drop-off. In fact, the Dawgs only had five starters back last year! Despite this, they were easily the best defense in the country.

Thanks to a constant rotation of defenders on and off the field, non-starters who returned this season are more experienced than expected. Even as the Bulldogs form a new rotation over the first few games, their talent at all three levels and experience in the secondary will be tough for Oregon and subsequent opponents to solve.

Oregon vs. Georgia Prop Pick

Georgia team total: Under 35.5 (-115) ★★★★

Yet again, taking the Under on Georgia’s team total prop of 34.5 has more to do with believing in Oregon's defense than not believing in quarterback Stetson Bennett and the Bulldogs’ offense.

It's pretty safe to assume Lanning will have his defense ready to go against his former boss on Saturday. While Georgia returns seven offensive starters, there was some turnover up front. In addition, while the Bulldogs are once again talented at the skill positions, Bennett will be working with some new names.

Successfully running the ball against Oregon's front seven won’t come easily, even for a physical team like Georgia. If the Ducks’ secondary holds its own, it will be a stretch for UGA to clear this team total prop line. Even last year’s potent Georgia offense fell short of 35 points in each of seven games played against respectable defenses.

Where to Bet on Oregon vs. Georgia Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Oregon-Georgia picks made 9/1/2022 at 10:42 a.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.