CFP National Championship Odds, Picks, Predictions: Georgia Favored to Win Back-to-Back National Championships
Could the Georgia Bulldogs become the first team since the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2011 and 2012 to win back-to-back National Championships? Let's examine changes in the college football National Championship futures market and determine which odds represent the best value entering the College Football Playoff.
Let's start this week's edition of the National Championship futures odds analysis with a hearty thank-you directed at the College Football Playoff selection committee for making this the first CFP without Alabama or Clemson. Cheers, folks!
New blood has entered the College Football Playoff, with the TCU Horned Frogs securing the No. 3 ranking despite losing to the Kansas State Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship. They're joined in the final four by defending-champion Georgia and Big Ten rivals Michigan and Ohio State.
So you want to bet on your favorite team to win the National Championship. What if I told you there was a way to make more money than just betting on them to win via the futures market?
When it comes to playing futures markets, the when is just as important as the who. It's seldom a secret who to bet on in any sport, but timing is the key to maximizing the value of your overall futures portfolio.
Below, we track the movement in the college football National Championship futures odds across our top-rated sportsbooks and look for the best picks entering Week 14.
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College Football National Championship Odds
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College Football National Championship Picks: Favorites
Georgia (-125 via DraftKings)
Georgia dominated LSU in the SEC Championship, leaving no doubt that it would be ranked No. 1 in the College Football Playoff. However, the Bulldogs and their backers were the biggest losers of the weekend.
The Bulldogs would have been 17.5-point favorites over the USC Trojans in the College Football Playoff, but with the Trojans losing, they'll now play Ohio State in the Peach Bowl, where they're only favored by 6.5. Georgia's price to win the National Championship has decreased from -165 to -125 due to the switch from USC to Ohio State.
This is the best price we have seen in a long time for Georgia, and might compel those who were previously on the fence to back the Bulldogs to win the National Championship.
Check out Bet365's "Win and You're In" boost for this weekend's slate of games.
Michigan (+300 via FanDuel)
The 13-0 Wolverines are the Big Ten champions and a deserving No. 2 seed in the CFP – and they've earn the added benefit of facing the Horned Frogs in the national semifinal. Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite over TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, but would be an underdog if it were facing either Georgia or Ohio State.
If Michigan plays Georgia in the National Championship game, Georgia would be roughly a 7.5-point favorite, making Michigan a +245 moneyline underdog. Therefore, I don't see much value in betting on Michigan at the current price of +300.
When you combine the Wolverines' moneyline price against TCU with the potential ML odds against Georgia, you get +355 instead of +300 for Michigan to win the National Championship.
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College Football National Championship Picks: Contenders
Ohio State (+360 via DraftKings)
Like with Michigan, you're better off making a rolling over moneyline bet on Ohio State to win the National Championship than betting on its futures odds. The odds on the Buckeyes to win the Peach Bowl are +220, and it should be about a three-point favorite over Michigan in the National Championship game.
Combining the +220 odds to defeat Georgia with the -161 odds to defeat Michigan gives us odds of +418, which are higher than any price we can find Ohio State at in the futures market.
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TCU (+1800 via PointsBet)
How is it possible for TCU to qualify for the College Football Playoff and its odds to win the National Championship actually increase from +1400 to +1800? It's simple: With Ohio State qualifying ahead of USC, TCU is now the biggest underdog of the four teams.
Theoretically, TCU deserves to be in the playoff – but based on the power ratings, TCU is nowhere near being one of the top four teams in the country. To put this into perspective, on a neutral field, TCU would be an underdog against Florida State, Penn State, and Texas – three teams that don't have a chance of reaching the College Football Playoff.
If you're interested in backing TCU to win the CFP, a rolling-over moneyline bet on TCU if the Horned Frogs were to face Michigan and then Georgia would have odds of +1923 as opposed to the +1800 we're seeing at PointsBet.
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Recent College Football Playoff Winners
Where to Bet on College Football Futures
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