Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 13: Rebels Should Roll in Egg Bowl
Crazy things can happen in rivalry games, but there's no getting past the talent disparity when we analyze the Egg Bowl and make our Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction based on the best college football odds.
The upcoming Egg Bowl showdown between Ole Miss, standing at 9-2, and Mississippi State, currently 5-6, promises an unpredictable clash. With the rivalry evenly split in their last 10 meetings (including a vacated win), the history between these teams sets the stage for an intense and unpredictable matchup. Despite Ole Miss holding a stronger record, the even split in recent encounters emphasizes the volatility and competitiveness of this rivalry, suggesting that the outcome of this game could swing in either team's favor.
Considering the talent gap between these teams, though, is the result a foregone conclusion this year?
The point spread isn't as lopsided as expected, which could suggest value in backing the better team in this rivalry affair.
As part of our Week 13 college football predictions, here is our best Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction: Week 13
Ole Miss -10 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Motivation can be tricky to ascertain at this point in the season, but a telltale sign of a team that at least ought to be highly motivated is a 5-6 record heading into the regular-season finale. That’s where Mississippi State lands entering the Egg Bowl, possessing the ability to win its way into bowl eligibility the natural way — with six wins.
But not even a home-field advantage combined with all the motivation in the world should allow the Bulldogs to compete adequately against Ole Miss if the Rebels show up with some purpose on Thanksgiving night. Ole Miss remains within striking distance for a New Year’s Six bowl game and a 10-win season. I struggle to believe that Lane Kiffin’s squad has such delusions of grandeur that those goals — and sticking it to their in-state rival — aren’t still squarely on the radar.
Ole Miss ranks 18th in the nation in overall adjusted efficiency; the rivals from Starkville rank 77th and outside the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Defense is a relative strength for the Bulldogs, as they’re nestled inside the top 50 in adjusted efficiency, but Ole Miss, with a top 15 offense averaging 32.8 points per game, should be able to score.
The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in home games and 3-8 ATS overall this season, one of the worst records against the spread in FBS. Barring an utter letdown that sees Ole Miss lose this outright, I don’t expect a close game on Thursday night.
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Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State best odds
DraftKings (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss -10 | Ole Miss -10 | Ole Miss -10 | Ole Miss -10 | Ole Miss -10 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Across the board at our best sports betting apps, we see Ole Miss as a 10-point favorite with -110 odds on the spread bet. We are seemingly getting a better number on the Rebels due to the rivalry nature of this matchup.
If that’s a trap, I’m falling into it. I’ve got the Rebels at least two touchdowns better than the Bulldogs in this one, so I’m happy to take them up to -13.5 as a four-star play.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds analysis
Back in August, the lookahead line viewed these teams pretty similarly, with Ole Miss being favored by only 1.5 points. The line was Rebels -14 as of last week before tightening up to -10 across our best sports betting sites. A slight majority of wagers have come in on Ole Miss.
The total originally opened at 61.5 and is now down to 55.5 across sites with the best sportsbook promos. As the line has lowered, 59% of total bets have gone Over.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State game info
- When: Thursday, Nov. 23 at 7:30 PM ET
- Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 45 Degrees, 3 mph Winds, 0% Precipitation
Ole Miss-Mississippi State prediction made Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
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