Ohio vs. Western Michigan Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview

My Ohio vs. Western Michigan prediction breaks down this massive Mid-American Conference game, as both the Bobcats and Broncos enter at 4-1 and tied for first in league play. Ohio is the 2.5-point road betting favorite, with kickoff scheduled for 8 p.m. ET from Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, Mich., on Tuesday (ESPN2). 

My college football Week 12 predictions expect a slugfest between these conference rivals, with arguably the MAC’s best defense limiting the Bobcats quarterback.

✅ Ohio vs. Western Michigan prediction & expert picks

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📊 Ohio vs. Western Michigan odds

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🏈 Ohio vs. Western Michigan preview & score prediction

Ohio extended its home winning streak to 12 games, its longest such streak in school history, with a 24-20 win in its last game against Miami (OH). But I expect it to find things more difficult on the road, especially since the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams, with two outright wins.

Broncos running game will make the difference

Ohio entered its last game allowing five yards per carry against FBS competition, but sold out to hold the Redhawks to 109 yards on 31 carries. But the Bobcats now face a stern test from Western Michigan’s running game, led by dual-threat quarterback Broc Lowry. Lowry leads the team in rushing yards, carries, and rushing touchdowns.

Ohio does not figure to put Western Michigan in many third-and-long situations, as its front seven has recorded just four sacks over the last four games. That lack of pressure is a big reason its pass rush ranks in the bottom third of the MAC, per PFF.

If Western Michigan uses its ground game to control the clock, it has a great chance of winning. Not only is Ohio a disappointing 1-3 on the road, but it has lost three of five games when its opponent wins the time-of-possession battle. 

Ohio has received 67% of the early point spread wagers, so I would not put anyone off waiting to see if the line reaches +3. Even if it doesn’t, I am placing a $10 wager on the +2.5 at FanDuel’s -110 odds (52.38% implied probability). It's a four-star play for me, in the hopes of netting $9.09 in profits.

Score prediction: Western Michigan 23, Ohio 21

🆚 Ohio vs. Western Michigan matchup to watch

Parker Navarro vs. Broncos defense

Western Michigan will likely want to turn this game into a rockfight. The Broncos entered their last game ranked 116th nationally in EPA per Play, but have excelled thanks to a rock solid defense that ranked 11th in EPA per Play allowed, while giving up 33 points over its first four conference games.

If Western Michigan does have a weaker point defensively, it is on the ground. Prior to the Central Michigan game, the Broncos ranked in the top 40 in EPA per Pass, but outside the top 50 in Defensive Line Yards, and outside the top 75 in Rush Success Rate allowed.

I expect the Bobcats will employ a run heavy approach, with quarterback Parker Navarro going Under this projected total for the first time in four games.

Best prop bet: Parker Navarro Under 189.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 Ohio vs. Western Michigan betting trends

🌤️ Ohio vs. Western Michigan weather

There were snow showers over the weekend in Kalamazoo, but this game on Tuesday night is predicted to have just a 12% chance of precipitation, with temperatures in the low 30s.

📺 How to watch Ohio vs. Western Michigan

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 11
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Waldo Stadium (Kalamazoo, Mich.)
• TV: ESPN2