North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight
The 5-4 North Texas Mean Green take on the 4-5 UTSA Roadrunners in American Athletic Conference on Friday night. The contest kicks off is at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.
Featuring a battle between mediocre teams, the Roadrunners enter as slight 1.5-point home underdogs. The line hasn't moved at our best college football betting sites in the 24 hours leading up to kickoff, and our North Texas vs. UTSA prediction expects the Roadrunners to cover.
UTSA has won two of its last three games. Their only setback, a one-point defeat, came on the road in Tulsa. Meanwhile, North Texas has lost three straight after winning five of six to start the campaign.
The picks below are part of our college football Week 12 predictions.
Best North Texas vs. UTSA picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: North Texas vs. UTSA +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: UTSA ML (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
North Texas vs. UTSA against the spread prediction: Week 12
UTSA to cover the spread: +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
North Texas vs. UTSA opening odds:
- North Texas: -2 (-110 via DraftKings)
- UTSA: +2 (-110 via DraftKings)
UTSA trending up
The Roadrunners surrendered 22 fourth-quarter points to blow their lead in a recent loss to Tulsa, but they bounced back in Week 10 with an eight-point win over Memphis at home.
The Roadrunners have enjoyed an extra week of rest due to a Week 11 bye, while North Texas just lost a physical game to undefeated Army 14-3. The Mean Green's offense is 17th in the FBS in points per game (36.6), but its defense allows 34.3 points per outing.
UTSA’s offense is a tick underneath North Texas in offensive production at 29.3 points per game. It also fields a poor defense while surrendering 32.6 points per affair.
The strength of schedule for North Texas and UTSA is nearly equal. The Mean Green are 0-3 in their last three games while UTSA is 2-1 and blew a great opportunity to be 3-0.
Historic edge
UTSA has dominated North Texas in recent matchups. The Roadrunners have won four of their last five games against the Mean Green outright, beating them three consecutive times, including twice in 2022.
The one time UTSA didn’t beat North Texas was in 2021 on the road. The Roadrunners are 4-0 at home in the Alamodome this season and hold a significant advantage over the visiting Mean Green offense.
The edge goes to UTSA, which started the year 2-4. Upon closer inspection, the Roadrunners have logged two losses by two or fewer points, so we’ll gladly bet UTSA +1.5 at home against North Texas.
Best odds: UTSA +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 52.38%
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North Texas vs. UTSA best bet
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UTSA ML (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Home sweet home
We’re correlating picks while backing UTSA +1.5 and UTSA’s moneyline at even odds.
The Roadrunners tend to run between 80 and 90 offensive plays per game, scoring the majority of their points through the air. North Texas has allowed four opponents to throw for three-plus touchdowns, and the team has surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns during its three-game losing skid. That includes a 52-44 loss to Memphis, which recorded an eight-point win at home over UTSA two weeks ago.
Stressing home-field advantage may seem a bit redundant, but North Texas has lost half of its games on the road in 2024. Meanwhile, UTSA is 4-0, losing all five of its road games, although two of those defeats came by two or fewer points.
Turnover margin
North Texas should endure minimal issues throwing the football against UTSA, as the Roadrunners have allowed nine passing touchdowns over their last two games against Tulsa and Memphis. However, their defense has forced two turnovers in four of the last five games, while North Texas has committed two turnovers in each of their three recent losses.
The Mean Green's defense has forced three total turnovers, including two interceptions, during their losing slump. But UTSA has avoided throwing an interception in two consecutive games. A lone fumble is their only blemish, and North Texas has only forced two fumbles all season.
Two talented offenses and two poor defenses are the reason the point total is set to a ridiculous 72.5. Instead of playing either side of that number, I’m willing to back the team that commits fewer turnovers, forces more turnovers, and plays confidently at home.
Let’s stake a unit on UTSA to win outright on the moneyline at +100 odds against North Texas as part of our college football Week 12 predictions.
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50.00%
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North Texas vs. UTSA odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
North Texas vs. UTSA game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 15
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: North Texas -1 (-112 via DraftKings)
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