College Football Upset Picks: Our 3 Best Underdog Bets for Week 12

After a three-week hiatus, we’re back with our college football upset picks for Week 12 after profiting more than four units over our latest three-week span.

This week, we're targeting a road underdog that was considered one of the biggest locks to make the College Football Playoff before the season started. We're also backing two road teams - including one facing a favorite that has already fired its coach - as part of our college football Week 12 predictions.

🚨 Best college football upset picks for Week 12

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12 based on the latest college football odds.

💰 Best college football underdog bets this week

🎯 Clemson (+135) over Louisville ⭐⭐⭐

It seems unfathomable that Clemson is coming off its first home victory in two months and remains under .500 (4-5) through nine games. While this team had lost its prior six home games to Power Four programs, it still has loads of NFL-caliber defensive talent and can build off its best performance in recent memory on that side of the ball.

The Tigers held the ACC’s top offense in Florida State to season lows in total yards (360), rushing yards (110), and points (10). Meanwhile, Louisville’s offense looked flat without injured leading rusher Isaac Brown last week. Quarterback Miller Moss could not spark the offense, completing 52.6% of his passes. He has now thrown an interception in five of the previous six games while not topping 250 passing yards in a month.  

Caesars is among several of our best sports betting sites offering the road underdogs at the high end of the market at +135. If Clemson pulls the upset, my $10 wager at those odds would net $13.50 in profit with a 42.55% implied probability.

🎯 Arkansas (+180) over LSU ⭐⭐⭐

LSU put forth a valiant effort in its first game under interim head coach Frank Wilson in a 20-9 loss to Alabama, holding the Crimson Tide well below their season points average. The task to get up for this game against an inferior Arkansas squad now gets much more difficult. 

LSU has lost four of five games since a 4-0 start with all four losses coming against ranked teams. The Razorbacks are nowhere near the top 25, but the Tigers seemingly play with fire each week as one of the four FBS teams yet to score more than 25 points against an FBS opponent this year.

If LSU’s offense cannot get going, that's a real issue against an Arkansas squad that ranks third in the SEC in total offense and is one of five conference teams averaging more than 35 points per game. There is a sizable difference between the +180 price at DraftKings and the next-best odds of +168. The +180 price implies a 35.71% chance that Arkansas pulls the upset and would result in an $18 profit on a $10 winning wager.

🎯 Boise State (+120) over San Diego State ⭐⭐⭐

Boise State suffered its first conference loss in disappointing fashion on the blue turf last week, as it allowed 23 unanswered points to Fresno State after an initial 7-7 tie. I expect the Broncos to get back to their usual success on offense having averaged 457.2 yards and 35.3 points entering that loss.

This is a battle for first place against a San Diego State team that is also 4-1 in the Mountain West. But the Aztecs are coming off a similarly disappointing 38-6 loss to Hawaii as a 6.5-point favorite. Their secondary entered that loss ranked second nationally in PFF’s coverage grade and third in pass success rate allowed, but that unit was torched for three first-half touchdown passes and 256 passing yards overall.

This is a three-star moneyline underdog play, as San Diego State is 4-for-26 on third down over its last two games. The best return on a $10 wager is through BetMGM’s +120 odds, which carry a 45.45% implied probability. If Boise State wins as an underdog for the first time in its second try this season, the bet would pay out $12 in profit.