Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 3 Best Bets & ATS Predictions

Thanks to a Week 3 slate with far more intriguing action than last Saturday - as part of our college football predictions for Week 3 - my college football picks against the spread are focusing on three teams that have made plenty of noise already this season.

My favorite college football picks for this weekend's slate are taking Texas Tech's $25-million roster to light up a struggling Oregon State team, South Carolina to prove it's for real with LaNorris Sellers at the helm, and South Florida to make another top-25 team sweat.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 3 ATS predictions

College football picks against the spread are based on the latest college football odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best Week 3 ATS picks

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🏴‍☠️ Texas Tech (-23.5) vs. Oregon State ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The most expensive roster in college football has lived up to the hype through two weeks and remains one of my favorite College Football Playoff odds bets at +375. Texas Tech has outscored its two lowly opponents - Arkansas Pine Bluff and Kent State - 129 to 21, and I'm not so sure Oregon State is in a position to put up a much better fight.

The Beavers have been disappointing early on in Trent Bray's second season in charge. Even with an expensive QB addition in Maalik Murphy, Oregon State is 0-2 with losses to California and Fresno State - they didn't cover in either matchup. Sinking to No. 97 in the SP+ rankings, including No. 104 on defense, Murphy and Co. are in for a long day in Lubbock.

Behren Morton has looked like a worthy Heisman Trophy odds long shot thus far with the Red Raiders ranked No. 3 in SP+ on offense, thanks to their QB and plethora of receivers. The defense is just as talented, with David Bailey and Romello Height leading the charge. If Joey McGuire's team can cover for the third straight game, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at bet365.

🐓 South Carolina (-5.5) vs. Vanderbilt ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A matchup between SEC foes that both beat Virginia Tech already this season - which has Brent Pry's seat scorching - South Carolina is clearly the more talented team. Still, Vanderbilt gets the Diego Pavia chip on his shoulder bump, which is why this spread has dropped from 8.5 points to 5.5 at our best college football betting sites.

Although the Commodores have been a tough out since Pavia and Eli Stowers arrived in Nashville last season, the Gamecocks have a star in Sellers, who's right there with Garrett Nussmeier to be the No. 1 pick, according to the 2026 NFL Draft odds. And he's not the only superstar in Columbia, S.C., pass rusher Dylan Stewart is trending toward being a top-five pick in 2027.

Those two have Shane Beamer's program ranked No. 12 by SP+, significantly higher than Vanderbilt (No. 38), and they should be the X-factors against a defense that's not built to stop Sellers' duel-threat ability and an offensive line not capable of slowing Stewart. With South Carolina being home at Williams-Brice Stadium, the Gamecocks should be able to cover and turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit at Caesars.

🐂 South Florida (+17.5) vs. Miami ⭐⭐⭐⭐

No team has had a more eventful start to the season than South Florida, which has already upset two ranked teams with College Football Playoff hopes. Now comes the real test for Alex Golesh's overachieving Bulls: Can they topple a college football championship odds contender in Miami?

Luckily for us, we don't need South Florida to win a third straight game as an underdog; we just need the Bulls to keep this intrastate battle under three scores. With SP+ projecting the Hurricanes to win 38-24, I'm trusting Byrum Brown to do enough against a Hurricanes defense that's ranked just No. 62 by SP+ - Brown's physical running will be key, as he's averaging 3.96 yards per carry after contact.

The Bulls' ability to cover will come down to Todd Orlando's defense slowing Carson Beck and Miami's deep wide receiver corps. But that was the case last week against DJ Lagway and the Gators, too, and USF managed to hold that group to just 222 passing yards and 16 points. If South Florida can continue to be the toughest Group of Five team in the country and cover, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at DraftKings.

❓ College football picks against the spread FAQs

What are the best college football ATS picks this week?

The best college football ATS picks this week are Texas Tech -23.5, South Carolina -5.5, and South Florida +17.

What does the ATS mean in college football?

ATS in NFL betting stands for “against the spread.” It refers to how often a team covers the point spread in its games. Bettors use ATS records to track performance relative to expectations, not just wins and losses.

What does against the spread mean?

Against the spread (ATS) betting means wagering on whether a team will cover the point spread set by oddsmakers - not just win the game. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

How do college football odds work?

When betting on college football odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.  

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