College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 12 ATS Predictions

With just a few weeks left in the regular season, our college football picks against the spread for Week 12 look at the 20 biggest games on the slate, with many of the matchups set to carry a ton of weight as teams push to qualify for conference championships.

This week, my college football Week 12 predictions focus on three teams with key conference matchups that are still alive in the College Football Playoff race.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 12 ATS predictions

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12 based on the latest college football odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best ATS picks for Week 12 

〽️ Michigan (-9.5) vs. Northwestern ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Coming off a bye, Michigan is poised to beat down on a Northwestern program that fell apart on Friday night against USC. The Wolverines haven't gotten much media attention in recent weeks, but they're trending toward being 9-2 when they host No. 1 Ohio State on Nov. 29, and they've beaten three of their last five opponents by double digits.

Northwestern's lack of offense will be a major problem in this matchup, and it's been a massive issue throughout the season. The Wildcats have scored more than 22 points against just one FBS opponent this season (UL Monroe) while averaging 16.1 PPG in their other seven FBS games. QB Preston Stone has the seventh-most turnover-worthy plays in the country (17) and has the 19th-highest pressure-to-sack rate in the Power Four (20.3%).

His turnover woes and penchant for taking sacks should kill any shot Northwestern has at an upset against a Michigan defense ranked ninth by SP+ and led by stars like Derrick Moore. On the other side, Wolverines' freshman phenom Bryce Underwood leads an offense ranked No. 12 in EPA per rush that should chip away enough at Northwestern to win this by double digits.

If Sherrone Moore's team covers, a $10 bet at FanDuel pays a $9.09 profit.

🐂 South Florida (-10.5) vs. Navy ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The American Conference race might be the best in college football right now. Five different teams have just one loss in conference play, while Memphis (which was projected to have the G6 CFP spot last week by the selection committee) now has two. If the American Championship were today, it would pit Navy and South Florida against each other, which is why this is the can't-miss Group of Six game of the week on Saturday.

However, with the Midshipmen coming off a blowout loss to Notre Dame in which star QB Blake Horvath didn't play, things won't be any easier this week for Navy. Despite having a 7-2 record, Navy's sort of a fraud. For the same reasons I had North Texas -5.5 against Navy among my favorite ATS picks in Week 10, I just can't see the Midshipmen showing up against USF - the Mean Green beat the Midshipmen by 14.

The Bulls are ranked No. 30 by SP+, just three spots behind North Texas (No. 27), and have the most impact G6 player in the country (Byrum Brown). Brown is a one-man wrecking crew, ranking top 40 in the country in big-time throws (14) and No. 1 among QBs in rushing yards after contact (520). His dynamic skill set should expose a Midshipmen defense ranked No. 97 by SP+.

With Navy 2-7 ATS this season, and South Florida 7-2, the Bulls are the play. And if they cover, a $10 bet at DraftKings pays a $9.52 profit.

🏴‍☠️ Texas Tech (-23.5) vs. UCF ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Scott Frost reunion at UCF has quietly been a mess. Even with the Knights playing Houston tough last week in the Space Game, a 3-point loss, it was more bad from Frost's team, which blew a 24-14 second-half lead to lose. UCF has two Power Four wins this year, and they've come against similarly non-inspiring new hires: North Carolina's Bill Belichick and a fellow retread in West Virginia's Rich Rodriguez. 

Frost's teams are supposed to be known for their offenses, but UCF is ranked No. 77 on offense by SP+, so how are the Knights going to score against the most dominant front seven in college football? Led by David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech is top 10 on defense in both EPA per pass and rush. Joey McGuire's program just held an undefeated BYU team to seven points and 255 total yards. There's just no way Tayven Jackson and Co. are going to be able to score enough to cover. 

Obviously, Texas Tech's offense needs to do its job, but even with QB Behren Morton playing through a fibula injury, the Red Raiders have scored 29-plus points in six of seven Big 12 games. And while UCF's defense has had solid moments, it doesn't have the depth to slow a playmaker corps as deep as the Red Raiders' with players like Cameron Dickey, Terrance Carter, and Caleb Douglas.

If Texas Tech's transfer-heavy roster can cover for an eight time in its last nine games, a $10 bet at Caesars pays a $9.09 profit.