College Football National Championship Odds: Big Ten Powers Lead, Alabama Best Challenger

Leading into Week 5 of the college football season, there was plenty of hype around pivotal top-25 matchups ... and they came through as the Big Ten once again showed why it's leading the college football national championship odds.

While reigning champion Ohio State remains the favorite following a loaded week of games, Oregon is the new team hot on the Buckeyes' trail. The Ducks beat Penn State, 30-24, in double overtime to jump the Nittany Lions on the oddsboard.

However, Penn State is still one of just four teams with a better than 11% probability of winning it all, alongside Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas. So, should your college football picks back a Big Ten program to bring the conference a third straight national championship?

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👑 Big Ten powers dominate national championship odds

🌰 Ohio State (+525)

• SP+ ranking: No. 3
• Key games: at Illinois (Oct. 11), vs. Penn State (Nov. 1), at Michigan (Nov. 29)

The Buckeyes won it all last season, but then they saw the majority of their key players head to the NFL and lost both coordinators.

However, the Buckeyes proved in their Week 1 win over Texas that they'll be fighting to repeat and keep the national title in the Big Ten behind an elite defense led by a deep defensive line and the best linebacker duo in the country (Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles) and All-American safety Caleb Downs.

While new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has his unit looking like one of the best in the country, questions remain about how ready Ohio State's offense is with Julian Sayin at the helm. The former five-star recruit had some bright moments in the Buckeyes' Week 5 win over Washington, especially in the second half, but new offensive coordinator Brian Hartline continues to keep things fairly conservative.

Although Ryan Day's program certainly has the talent to repeat with this defense and a nasty pass-catching corps led by Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, I need to see more from Sayin against quality opponents before I can bet the Buckeyes at a price that pays just a $52.50 profit on a $10 bet.

I'd hold off on betting on Ohio State until we see how the Buckeyes look against Penn State in Week 10 unless these odds lengthen to the +1000 range before then.

🦆 Oregon (+600)

• SP+ ranking: No. 1
• Key games: vs. Indiana (Oct. 11), vs. USC (Nov. 22), at Washington (Nov. 29)

No team has looked better than Oregon so far this season, even though the Ducks have really only played one high-quality opponent. Still, beating Penn State in Happy Valley during a white out game is enough proof to me that Dan Lanning has the best team in college football.

The Nittany Lions were my preseason pick to win it all, and while I'm trying not to overreact to one game (remember, Oregon beat Ohio State last year), the Ducks look like the most complete team in the Big Ten.

No quarterback in the country has been more impressive than Dante Moore, who leads the Heisman Trophy odds coming out of Week 5. He's an assassin, with how unbothered he is under pressure and how easily he seems to be able to create a play out of structure.

Tight end Kenyon Sadiq and freshman phenom Dakorien Moore have stepped up as the go-to pass catchers to make up for the loss of Evan Stewart. The defense is just as loaded with linebacker Bryce Boettcher, pass rusher Matayo Uiagalelei, and safety Dillon Thieneman leading the way.

Oregon also has an easier path the rest of the way, having just beaten the hardest team on its schedule. That's why I think it's fair to bet the Ducks at this short price that pays a $60 profit on a $10 winning bet, with Oregon trending toward overtaking Ohio State as the favorite in the coming weeks. A win over Indiana could take the Ducks down to the +450 range.

🦁 Penn State (+800)

• SP+ ranking: No. 2
• Key games: at Ohio State (Nov. 1), vs. Indiana (Nov. 8)

Now would be a good time to bet Penn State, if, like me, you still believe this team can rebound and make a run.

While my belief has been shaken to some degree following the loss to Oregon, I'll once again point out that in the 12-team College Football Playoff era, losing a game in September doesn't mean a lot - last year the Buckeyes lost games in October and November and still won it all. Oregon is the best team in the country, and Penn State nearly came back to win before a Drew Allar interception in double overtime ended it.

But while Allar has plenty of flaws, he's comparable to Will Howard last year at Ohio State, an experienced veteran who has made big plays in big moments before - plus, Allar has a far better arm. When the Nittany Lions run the ball with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Sinlgeton, this offense is scary behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.

Without question, the defense can win a championship, too. Led by former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, the Nittany Lions gave up just 17 points to the Heisman favorite in regulation. 

That's why, even with a loss, Penn State remains the third biggest college football national championship odds favorite at our best college football betting sites despite coming off a loss. And I think betting Penn State at this price, which pays an $80 profit on a $10 bet, is better than backing any non-Oregon or non-Alabama team.

🧭 Best non–Big Ten national championship bets

🐘 Alabama (+850)

• SP+ ranking: No. 4
• Key games: vs. Vanderbilt (Oct. 4), at Missouri (Oct. 11), vs. Tennessee (Oct. 18), vs. LSU (Nov. 8), vs. Oklahoma (Nov. 15), at Auburn (Nov. 29)

Coming into the season, Alabama was my pick to win the SEC and earn the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff.

Then, when the Crimson Tide lost to Florida State in Tallahassee to open the season, I completely backed off Alabama and chalked it up to Kalen DeBoer not being the right guy to replace Nick Saban. And that's exactly why betting with emotion instead of data is a bad call (even if that loss to the Seminoles was technically a data point). At no point this season have the Crimson Tide slipped outside the top five rankings by SP+, and on paper, they're right there with Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State in terms of talent.

Finally, in Week 5, we saw exactly what this team can be capable of when it's playing up to its potential. Quarterback Ty Simpson picked Georgia apart in the first half, Ryan Grubb was in his bag with his play-calling, and the defense stepped up behind LT Overton when it absolutely needed to.

One concern I have with betting Alabama now, though, is that this price has come way down after that Georgia win. The Crimson Tide still have a loaded schedule to play, far more difficult than what the Big Ten powers have on their slates.

I'd wait to see if Alabama loses a game in SEC play before betting them at this price - a loss should get them back to that +1200 range - and if they don't, the Tide will still likely trail all three Big Ten teams and stick around this price.

🏴‍☠️ Texas Tech (+6000)

• SP+ ranking: No. 8
• Key games: at Arizona State (Oct. 18), vs. BYU (Nov. 8)

Looking outside the two premier conferences in the sport, there's an obvious team to back from both the ACC (Miami) and Big 12 (Texas Tech). The Hurricanes (No. 12) and Red Raiders are the highest-rated teams by SP+ from their respective conferences, with Louisville (No. 26) and Utah (No. 20), which Texas Tech already beat, lagging far behind. 

So why bet Texas Tech over Miami when the Hurricanes have a Heisman contender at QB (Carson Beck) and arguably the most disruptive defender in the country (Rueben Bain Jr.)? The answer is money - both yours and theirs.

The advanced stats say the Red Raiders are the better team, and their odds are so much longer, paying a $600 profit on a $10 winning bet vs. Miami's +1400 betting odds paying just a $140 profit. Then, there's that oil money funding the whole thing.

Super booster Cody Campbell helped load this team up in the transfer portal, with the roster reportedly costing around $25 million, and it has paid off. The Red Raiders crushed the Utes and flexed all that talent. They have one of the scariest defenses in the country, led by David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez, and a plethora of offensive playmakers for Behren Morton (and freshman QB Will Hammond) to throw to ... plus they should cruise to a spot in the CFP.

For as deep as the Big 12 is, it has more parity than any conference, and Texas Tech has such a clear path to the conference championship. If they can beat Arizona State in Tempe, Joey McGuire's team has a shot at an undefeated regular season. This is the best long shot on the board, and the only one I'd recommend betting.

❓ College football national championship FAQs

Who is the college football national championship odds favorite?

Ohio State (+525) is the college football national championship odds favorite. The Buckeyes' odds imply a 16% probability that they'll win the title for the second straight season.

When will the college football national championship be decided?

The 2026 college football national championship will be decided on Monday, Jan. 19.

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.

The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.