College Football Week 11 Expert Picks: Saturday's Player Props & ATS Predictions
This week's Saturday slate is highlighted by two massive SEC matchups that are part of our Week 11 college football expert picks today.
- Georgia has the second-shortest college football championship odds but takes on Ole Miss' explosive offense on the road
- Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke has been one of the biggest Heisman Trophy odds risers and can add to his resume against Michigan
- Both LSU and Alabama are alive in the College Football Playoff odds race as they get to play each other tonight
As part of our Week 11 college football predictions, our experts make their top picks for the can't-miss games for the week.
College football expert picks for Week 11
College football odds subject to change. See all of our college football picks for more on this week's top matchups.
| Matchup | Rob Paul | C Jackson Cowart |
|---|---|---|
| Florida vs. Texas | Gunnar Helm Over 45.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) | Over 47 (-110 via Caesars) |
| Georgia vs. Ole Miss | Jaxson Dart Over 267.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) | Georgia ML (-118 via FanDuel) |
| Michigan vs. Indiana | Kurtis Rourke Over 258.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) | Indiana -14.5 (-105 via BetMGM) |
| Clemson vs. Virginia Tech | Cade Klubnik Under 246.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) | Virginia Tech +6.5 (-110 via Caesars) |
| Mississippi State vs. Tennessee | Dylan Sampson Over 125.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) | Tennessee -24.5 (-105 via FanDuel) |
| Alabama vs. LSU | Garrett Nussmeier Over 286.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) | Alabama Over 30.5 points (-118 via FanDuel) |
Rob Paul's Week 11 player prop picks
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Florida vs. Texas prediction: Gunnar Helm Over 45.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Helm has been Quinn Ewers' favorite target all season - Texas QBs have a 123.7 NFL QB rating when targeting him, per PFF. He leads the team in receiving yards (419) and has gone Over 45.5 in three straight and five of his last seven.
Florida's defense is just 67th in EPA per dropback and has to try and slow an offense that's seventh in SP+. If Helm hits 46-plus yards for the fourth straight game, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Michigan vs. Indiana prediction: Kurtis Rourke Over 258.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Few QBs have been as good as Rourke this season. The Canadian is 12th in the Power 4 in adjusted completion rate (77.1%) and has the eighth-highest big-time throw rate (5.9%).
Rourke's topped this number in five of his last seven games, and Michigan's pass defense ranks outside the top 40 in EPA per dropback. If Rourke throws for 259-plus, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Mississippi State vs. Tennessee prediction: Dylan Sampson Over 125.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
For as inconsistent as Tennessee's offense has been this season, Dylan Sampson has been a monster. He ranks in the top 25 in the country in rushing yards after contact (566), missed tackles forced (38), and 10-plus-yard runs (26).
He should run wild against a Mississippi State defense that's 107th in EPA per rush and allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game in the country (211.7). If Sampson goes Over this number for the fourth time in five games, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
C Jackson Cowart's Week 11 game picks
Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction: Georgia ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This line is close because Georgia looked mortal last week in an eventual 14-point win over Florida, but this is a similar group to the one that blasted Ole Miss by 35 points when they met last year.
The Bulldogs haven't lost to a team other than Alabama in four years, while Rebels coach Lane Kiffin owns a 1-11 record against top-five teams. Give me the preseason No. 1 team to get back on track with an outright win at cheap odds.
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%
Clemson vs. Virginia Tech prediction: Virginia Tech +6.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This line was over a touchdown a week ago, but the best sportsbooks wisened up after Clemson's 33-21 loss to Louisville - just the third of the Tigers' first eight opponents with a current winning record.
Clemson lost both meetings with winning teams on the road, and Lane Stadium should be rocking tonight in what will likely be the return of star QB Kyron Drones (foot).
I'm expecting a close one if not a Hokies upset. I know Rob agrees with me, as he gave out this same bet as part of his college football Week 11 ATS picks.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Alabama vs. LSU prediction: Alabama Over 30.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Crazy things can happen under the lights at Tiger Stadium, so I don't love the idea of laying the points on an Alabama team with a 1-2 record on the road.
Yet the Crimson Tide offense ranks fourth in SP+ - LSU's defense sits at 35th - and has scored at least 31 points in six of its first eight games. If that happens again, a $10 bet at FanDuel would return $8.77 in profit.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
College football picks roundup: Week 11
- College football Week 11 upset picks
- College football Week 11 ATS picks
- College football Week 11 player props
- College football Week 11 best bets
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