College Football Playoff Expert Picks: Best Quarterfinal Predictions for Round 2

Just eight teams remain in the College Football Playoff with the quarterfinals set from New Year's Eve to Jan. 2, as we make our college football expert picks for each matchup.

• Penn State vs. Boise State tonight is the only CFP game that features two Heisman Trophy odds top-10 finishers
• Despite Texas being the college football championship odds favorite, we expect Arizona State to put up a fight
• Our college bowl game predictions this week believe Oregon and Ohio State will provide another instant classic

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

College football playoff expert picks: Round 2

College football odds subject to change. See all of our college football picks for more on this week's top matchups.

Rob Paul's CFP player prop picks

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Penn State vs. Boise State prediction: Tyler Warren Over 77.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Boise State may have earned a CFP bye, but the Broncos' defense is by far the worst in the playoff. Without any top-end talent in the back seven, Tyler Warren is going to cause headaches for Spencer Danielson's team - Boise State is just 47th in SP+ on defense.

Warren is the best tight end in the country and top three among tight ends in yards per route run (2.81) and contested catches (11), per PFF. If he hits 78-plus receiving yards for the fourth time in six games, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Texas vs. Arizona State prediction: Cam Skattebo Over 27.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The only way Arizona State can pull off the upset against Texas is if Cam Skattebo is fed the rock. However, the Longhorns' defense is seventh in EPA per rush and will be keyed in on stopping Skattebo and the run game. 

I expect Kenny Dillingham to get his star the ball in myriad ways, and with star receiver Jordyn Tyson out, the do-it-all back should see a steady dose of targets in the passing game.

Skattebo has topped 27.5 receiving yards six times in his last nine games, and if he does again, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: Jeremiah Smith anytime TD scorer ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The key to Ohio State's dominant win over Tennessee was Will Howard's connection with freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith. Expect offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to get the ball in Smith's hands early and often against Oregon.

Smith has scored in 10 of 13 games this season, but despite leading the Buckeyes in touchdowns, he has longer odds at our best sports betting sites to score against the Ducks than teammates Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.

Smith is top 20 in the country in yards per route run (3.0) and should showcase that explosiveness in the quarterfinals.  

Best odds: +100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50%

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Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction: Jeremiyah Love Over 63.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐

The emergence of Jeremiyah Love alongside Riley Leonard and Jadarian Price has given Notre Dame one of the best three-headed monsters in the country. If the Fighting Irish are going to upset Georgia, it will be because of their run game.

Love has gone Over 63.5 rushing yards in eight games this season, including five of his last six. He ranks top 20 in the country in both rushing yards after contact per attempt (4.68) and missed tackles forced (60), and he's arguably the best running back the Bulldogs have faced this season. 

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

–– Rob Paul (SBR | Twitter/X)

Gabe Henderson's CFP game picks

Penn State vs. Boise State prediction: Penn State -11 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Simply put, Penn State has the horses. The Nittany Lions are a more athletic and talented all-around football team than Boise State. They have all of the necessary tools to limit Ashton Jeanty's big-play ability while wearing out the Broncos' defense with Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton.

I wrote more about Jeanty's potential struggles in my Ashton Jeanty player prop picks, and if he doesn't get going, I don't see a way for Boise State to stay within this number.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Texas vs. Arizona State prediction: Arizona State +12.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Arizona State is the joint-best ATS team in the country (11-2). This is a lot of points for a Texas team that let Clemson close the gap late. The Longhorns are still my national championship pick, but I worry too much about the backdoor cover with Skattebo and the Sun Devils.

Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%

Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: Under 55.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This pick is more driven by the fact I do not know which Ohio State team is going to show up against Oregon. The Buckeyes and Ducks combined to go Under at a 14-12 clip this season by an average of 3.2 points per game.

Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction: Georgia -1.5 ⭐⭐⭐

When in doubt, back experience. While Georgia might not have a veteran quarterback under center, the Bulldogs have been here before. Kirby Smart is the only coach left standing with a national championship to his name, so I'll hesitantly jump on the Georgia bandwagon here.

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%

–– Gabe Henderson (SBR | Twitter/X)

College Football Playoff expert picks & CFP predictions

• Notre Dame vs. Georgia early picks
• Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction
• Notre Dame vs. Georgia player props
• Notre Dame vs. Georgia parlay
• CFP quarterfinal player prop bets
• CFP quarterfinal anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• CFP quarterfinal parlay picks

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