College Football Best Bets Week 8: Will Penn State Surprise Without Franklin?

Our college football best bets column went 4-1 last week, narrowly missing a 5-0 sweep by the hook on an ATS pick.

I am back to build off that momentum with a new set of college football picks that feature several of the week’s five ranked vs. ranked matchups. Our college football predictions for Week 8 involve our top two ATS plays on underdogs, and expects big days for prominent Michigan and USC players.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 8

College football best bets odds subject to change.

• Ole Miss-Georgia first half Over 26.5 (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Arkansas +7.5 vs. Texas A&M (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Penn State +3 vs. Iowa (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• King Miller, RB, USC: Anytime touchdown scorer (+105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬆️ Ole Miss-Georgia first half Over 26.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Georgia and Auburn played to a 10-3 defensive struggle in the first half last week. But the Bulldogs were fortunate they didn’t trail by more, as they were outgained 238-20 in total yards at one point.

Even more concerning is Georgia’s opponents over the prior three games completed 71% of their passes for 550 yards, 8.9 yards per attempt, and a 5-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the first half.

Georgia should also do its part in scoring early, as the Ole Miss defense ranks in the bottom 20 of all FBS teams in Stuff Rate and Line Yards. The Bulldogs outscored Auburn 20-0 and outgained the Tigers 276-39 after a critical Jackson Arnold fumble last week, and I expect them to build off that momentum over the first 30 minutes this week.

Since competing sportsbooks have this O/U set as high as 27.5, I do not mind paying up slightly for the -115 juice at 53.49% implied odds at bet365. Through its -115 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profits.

🐗 Arkansas +7.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arkansas covered as 12.5-point road underdogs in a 34-31 loss at Tennessee last week in what was its first game under interim coach Bobby Petrino. The Razorbacks trailed by 17 points early in the fourth quarter, but the fight it showed to cut the deficit to three points was admirable and bodes well going forward.

The Razorbacks will have their hands full facing a Texas A&M defense that has done historic things of late.

Texas A&M is the first major conference team over the last 20 years to hold three consecutive opponents to no more than one third-down conversion. And its 6% opponents’ third-down conversion percentage is the lowest among SEC teams through three conference games over the last 30 seasons.

I am expecting regression in that category when facing a Taylen Green-led offense. The Razorbacks quarterback entered last week ranked seventh nationally in Success Rate. And A&M’s offense should struggle early with leading rusher Le’Veon Moss missing extended time with an ankle injury. His six rushing touchdowns rank tied for fourth among SEC running backs.

FanDuel is the only best sports betting site charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the underdog’s point spread. At -105 odds (carrying a 51.22% implied probability), a $10 wager would return $9.52 in profit if Arkansas covers.

🦁 Penn State +3 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

While the general public is ready to write off Penn State after three consecutive losses and firing its head coach, I am taking the contrarian approach and backing it with one of my best college football predictions for Week 8.

Under James Franklin since 2014, Penn State went 4-21 SU against AP Top-10 teams (tying the third-worst record for a single school in the Poll Era), and averaging 22.8 points per game with a -9.9 points per game differential. But against all other opponents, Penn State was 100-24, averaging 34.2 points per game with a +17.9 average point differential.

The Nittany Lions stake claim to the most disappointing FBS team thus far, becoming the first preseason AP Top-2 team at .500 or worse through the first six games of a season since 1964.

But I have faith in interim head coach Terry Smith, who spent the last 12 seasons under Franklin. I trust he will ride his talented running back tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to a road cover.

I am heading to BetMGM and laying my $10 wager down before it moves off the key number of three and aligns with some other best sports betting apps at +2.5. BetMGM’s -115 price at 53.49% implied odds would return $8.70 in profits if Penn State wins outright or loses by less than a field goal.

💰 Best college football player prop bets for Week 8

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Bryce Underwood Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Michigan could be without leading rusher Justice Haynes this week after he had just 10 carries before leaving last week’s loss to USC with an injury. But it would behoove the Wolverines to attack Washington through the air given that its secondary is the weak point of its defense.

Washington ranks in the top 35 in Rushing Success Rate and explosives allowed, but its pass defense sits 89th in Pass EPA allowed.

I am opting for the plus-money return at the 49.50% implied odds for the Over on Underwood’s passing touchdowns as opposed to the Over of 193.5 passing yards at -115 odds, as Washington ranks 96th in Finishing Drives allowed. When opponents cross the Huskies’ 40-yard line, they are giving up more than four points per possession.

If Underwood throws multiple touchdown passes, my winning $10 wager would net $10.20 in profits.

🔥 King Miller anytime touchdown scorer (+105) ⭐⭐⭐

USC freshman running back King Miller has been limited to 29 rushing attempts this season, but should take on a much larger role in the Trojans' backfield as the team is without leading rusher Waymond Jordan, who suffered an ankle injury last week.

In Jordan’s absence against Michigan, Miller created three explosive plays, and has averaged an eye-popping 10.7 yards per carry in a small sample size this year.

Notre Dame’s defense has allowed four touchdowns over its last 35 defensive series, and surrendered just one explosive run in the last two games against Boise State and NC State combined. But the Fighting Irish still rank outside the top 110 in Defensive Line Yards, and will not be able to load the box when facing the most talented quarterback it has faced thus far in Jayden Maiava.

FanDuel is the only top sports betting site offering better than +100 odds (at a 50% implied probability) for Miller to find the endzone. Its +105 odds would net $10.50 on a winning $10 wager.