College Football Best Bets for Week 12: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

My college football best bets for Week 12 look to keep the momentum going off a profitable 60% success rate over the last five weeks. 

Included in my college football Week 12 predictions are two underdogs in great situational spots and player props involving a pair of quarterbacks on College Football Playoff contenders.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 12

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12 based on the latest college football odds.

🔮 Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

🟢  Michigan State +7.5 vs. Penn State (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

My best college football predictions this week begin with our most confident five-star play in fading a Penn State team that is in a horrific situational spot.

The Nittany Lions have to be gut-wrenched after nearly knocking off No. 2 Indiana at home if not for one of the best toe-touch grabs of the season. Penn State now travels to a Michigan State team rested after a bye and undervalued after losing to Minnesota in overtime despite outgaining the Golden Gophers by 166 total yards.

Spartans head coach Jonathan Smith has covered all five games as an underdog this season, and has a 59.6% cover rate in that split for his career. Add in the fact that Michigan State is an underdog off extended rest, and Smith’s teams are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in that scenario.

FanDuel is the lone best sports betting site offering a touchdown and the hook, while other competitors are at +7. That makes its -112 price at 52.83% implied odds a great value for the extra-half point. If Michigan State covers, my $10 winning wager would net $8.93 in profits.

⬇️  Texas Tech team total Under 35.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

No. 6 Texas Tech beat BYU emphatically 29-7 last week in a home matchup of AP top-8 teams. But there are growing concerns about the health of Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton, who was limited in practice this week and was seen wearing a boot while nursing a hairline fracture in his fibula.

Morton’s limited mobility resulted in four sacks taken against BYU, while he threw for just 219 yards and completed a season-low 53% of his passes.

Backup quarterback Will Hammond is also injured, so I expect the Red Raiders will take a cautious approach with Morton and try to grind out a win against a 20th-ranked UCF scoring defense (20 points per game allowed) on the strength of its rushing attack and ninth-ranked total defense of their own.  

DraftKings’ -115 odds carry a 53.49% implied probability, and would return $8.70 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

🐏  North Carolina +6.5 vs. Wake Forest (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

This ACC battle between North Carolina and Wake Forest has one of the lowest totals of any game on the Week 12 college football slate (O/U 38.5). With points likely at a premium, there is great value in getting nearly a touchdown on the point spread with the underdogs.

Bill Belichick should have no issue scheming a defensive game plan for a Demon Deacons offense that ranks outside the top-100 of FBS teams. Virginia just held Wake Forest to 203 total yards, but lost the game because of turnovers (-3 turnover margin), an early injury to its starting quarterback, and poor special teams play (it allowed a punt return touchdown).

North Carolina has held its last four opponents to an eye-popping 2.2 yards per carry. And one trend in particular backs the Tar Heels in this split, as road ‘dogs of at least a field goal in Power 4 conference matchups with a total of less than 40 points have covered the spread 61.1% of the time over the last 20 seasons.  

Of the remaining best sports betting apps that have the Tar Heels at +6.5 (the majority are at +6), FanDuel’s -115 odds offer the best return. If North Carolina covers, my $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profits.

💰 Best college football player props for Week 12

⬆️  CJ Carr player prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

No. 9 Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr has played interception-free football for back-to-back games. But those two games in wins over Boston College and Navy did not require him to push the ball downfield, as those were two of the four games with his fewest passing attempts on the season.

Carr will likely need to air it out much more against a defense that ranks in the top five in defensive rush efficiency, Line Yards, and Stuff Rate. No. 22 Pittsburgh has generated negative EPA on almost every rush concept.

Carr has thrown at least one interception in four of nine games. With his passing yards O/U as high as 256.5, he will likely be throwing it a ton to avoid Pittsburgh’s stout front seven.

If Carr throws at least one interception, my $10 winning wager through bet365’s -115 odds would return $8.70 in profits.

⬇️  Ty Simpson player prop: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-109) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

No. 4 Alabama totaled just 20 points against LSU last week, primarily because of an inefficient running game that averaged 2.2 yards per attempt. While that would suggest that head coach Kalen DeBoer would have his quarterback air it out more this year, that is easier said than done against No. 11 Oklahoma's stout defense.

The Sooners' defense ranks in the top 10 of all FBS teams in creating contested catches. Oklahoma is also likely to make Alabama one-dimensional to focus more attention on its wide receivers, as the nation’s best run defense should overwhelm the 112th-ranked offense in rush efficiency.

Caesars is the only operator offering the best sportsbook promos that is charging less than a -114 price (53.27% implied odds) to back the Under. Through its -109 odds, a $10 winning wager for Simpson to finish with one or fewer passing touchdowns for the second straight game (and just the second time this season) would net a profit of $9.17.