NC State vs. Wake Forest Prediction, Odds & Picks Tonight: College Football Week 3 Best Bets
My NC State vs. Wake Forest prediction breaks down a clash of ACC rivals for tonight as NC State and Wake Forest have the college football landscape all to themselves.
NC State is a 7-point betting favorite ahead of kickoff from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Winston-Salem, N.C., at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
In my college football picks last week, I cashed a ticket on the Wolfpack moneyline. I'm turning back to the visitors tonight in my college football predictions for Week 3, and advising you to lay the points.
🏈 NC State vs. Wake Forest prediction
College football expert picks for Thursday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: NC State moneyline (-270 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: NC State -7 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 54 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 NC State vs. Wake Forest best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🐺 NC State -7 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NC State stormed back from a 10-point halftime deficit to improve to 4-0 against conference rival Virginia under head coach Dave Doeren last week. That should springboard into a spirited performance this week against a Demon Deacons team that upset the Wolfpack in their own backyard last year as four-point underdogs.
NC State’s 35 points in last week’s victory were its second-most in four contests against the Cavaliers under Doeren. However, the Wolfpack's coaching staff must find answers for a defense that allowed its most points (31) by a Doeren-led squad against the same opponent.
Thankfully, Wake Forest has its own offensive issues, including converting just six first downs and averaging 2.8 yards per carry in an uninspiring 10-point effort against Kennesaw State, which is in its second season at the FBS level.
Many of NC State’s defensive struggles early against Virginia came from its inability to stop the Cavaliers on third-and-long. Virginia converted six of its first seven third-down tries, five of which came on plays of 10-plus yards. But the Wolfpack made adjustments to limit the Cavaliers to just 50% on third downs in the second half. They should continue to see positive regression in that respect if they continue to force third-and-long situations.
I am taking advantage of one of the few 7-point spreads at -110 odds at BetMGM before more of the best college football betting sites align with the 7.5-point spread available on the high end of the market. A $10 winning wager would net $9.09 in profits.
💰 Best NC State vs. Wake Forest player prop bet
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Robby Ashford Under 194.5 passing yards (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you’ve never seen Demon Deacons quarterback and South Carolina transfer Robby Ashford play, you are in for a treat, as most of his dropbacks turn into theater with how often he dances and scrambles in the pocket. But I expect NC State’s pass rush to get a ton of push against an offensive line starting as many as three new players. That should have Ashford relying on his legs more than his arm.
Wake Forest wants to be a run-first team, with 47 runs to 28 passes in a close season opener, and five more run plays than pass plays in Week 2.
Ashford’s 25 carries are already seven more than the second-highest total on the team. If this game is as close as the oddsmakers predict with a 7-point spread, the Demon Deacons will prefer to bleed clock and limit the Wolfpack’s offensive possessions, thus lowering the ceiling on Ashford’s passing yards.
I am taking advantage of the best number at Caesars, whose O/U of 194.5 yards is slightly higher than the 192.5 on the low end of the market. That buffer is worth paying up slightly in price for the 54.13% implied probability, with a $10 winning wager netting $8.47 in profits.
📊 NC State vs. Wake Forest odds: Week 3
NC State vs. Wake Forest odds update live in real time.
📈 NC State vs. Wake Forest opening odds
- Moneyline: NC State -285 | Wake Forest +230
- Spread: NC State -7 (-110) | Wake Forest +7 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)
🔍 NC State vs. Wake Forest odds analysis
After opening as a touchdown favorite, NC State has spent time on both sides of the key number at -6.5 and -7.5. No 6.5-point spreads remain, despite Wake Forest being the more popular side, garnering 59% of the early wagers.
The total has drawn slightly more two-way action with a 53/47% split, which is why there has not been much wavering off the opening number of O/U 53.5. At this time of writing, Caesars is the only one of the best sports betting sites that differs with a total of 54.
🎟️ NC State vs. Wake Forest game day odds
As of Thursday morning, the visitors are giving up the flat 7 at almost all of our best sports betting apps, with FanDuel being the lone operator offering a 7.5 line. A majority (62%) of the wagers are on the home team to cover the points, so you're unlikely to see many more shops offer the hook.
The total has been bet down heading into the game, which can be found as low as 51.5 after opening at 53.5; most operators are posting a 52 or 52.5 line. The Over (53%) is seeing a small edge in the betting.
🔢 NC State vs. Wake Forest stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| NC State (2-0) | Statistic (per game) | Wake Forest (2-0) |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5 | Points | 26 |
| 24 | Points allowed | 9.5 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
| 259 | Passing yards | 243.5 |
| 160.5 | Rushing yards | 201.5 |
| 320 | Passing yards allowed | 176.5 |
| 143.5 | Rushing yards allowed | 96 |
| 6.6 | Net yards per play | 6.7 |
📺 NC State vs. Wake Forest game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 11
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium (Winston-Salem, N.C.)
- How to watch: ESPN
❓ NC State vs. Wake Forest FAQs
Who is favored to win NC State vs. Wake Forest?
NC State is a -270 moneyline betting favorite to beat Wake Forest.
What is the spread for NC State vs. Wake Forest?
NC State is either a 7 or 7.5-point betting favorite over Wake Forest across the best sports betting apps.
What is the Over/Under for NC State vs. Wake Forest?
The O/U for NC State vs. Wake Forest ranges between 53.5 and 54, with each side of the total at both numbers juiced to -110.
What are the best bets for NC State vs. Wake Forest?
My best bets for NC State vs. Wake Forest back the Wolfpack to cover the spread as road favorites, while Demon Deacons quarterback Robby Ashford goes Under his projected passing yards total.
When is the NC State vs. Wake Forest game?
The NC State vs. Wake Forest game kicks off on Thursday night at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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