Navy vs. Memphis Prediction & Opening Odds for Thanksgiving: College Football Week 14

My Navy vs. Memphis prediction offers my best early picks for this standalone Thanksgiving college football matchup. Kickoff from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tenn., is at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). 

The opening odds have Memphis as a 5.5-point betting favorite, but my college football Week 14 predictions find value with the road underdogs before the line moves further away from them.

🏈 Early Navy vs. Memphis prediction & betting preview: Thanksgiving

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for Week 14.

⚓️ Navy +5.5 (-107) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Neither Navy nor Memphis will have played in 12 days when this Thanksgiving night game kicks off. That layoff will likely have public bettors forgetting that the Midshipmen are coming off a 41-38 home upset of then-No. 24 South Florida as a 9.5-point betting underdog.

Memphis owns the nation’s longest active streak of 51 games with scoring 20-plus points. But a revamped Navy offense seemingly does not mind playing in shootouts, as the Midshipmen have won all three of their games outright where both teams scored 30 or more.

I am more comfortable backing Navy’s point spread instead of the Over despite all of these trends. 

The Tigers rank a respectable 27th in defensive stop rate and have allowed 1.97 points per drive. But Memphis clearly had issues with a Navy offense that racked up 56 points and 566 total yards of offense in last year’s meeting, while the Midshipmen continue to evolve and be more multi-dimensional each week.

Caesars is the best sports betting app for Navy backers as the only one charging less than -108 at 51.92% implied odds. If the Midshipmen cover, a $10 winning wager would net $9.35 in profits

📊 Live Navy vs. Memphis odds: Thanksgiving Week 14

See the latest college football odds for every game in Week 14.

🔢 Navy vs. Memphis opening odds

• Moneyline: Navy +164 | Memphis -200
• Spread: Navy +4.5 (-105) | Memphis -4.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)

↔️ Navy vs. Memphis line movement

Despite neither team playing in Week 13, the line has already moved a point in Memphis’ favor from an opening number of -4.5 to -5.5. With neither team moving the line due to recent play since their last games, the movement is all wager-driven, as early bets are 4/1 in favor of Memphis.

If the point spread wagers continue to be split that drastically, the line could continue to tick up closer to the key number of seven. 

The bets on the total are similarly split 71/29 in favor of the Over, but oddsmakers do not seem to mind needing to root for the Under just yet, as the line has not budged off the opening number of 57.5.

📈 Navy vs. Memphis trends & betting notes

• Navy has won two straight meetings against Memphis despite being underdogs of +9 and +12
• The Midshipmen are just 3-7 ATS, while the Tigers have covered eight of 11
• Navy quarterback Blake Horvath accounted for six touchdowns in last year’s 56-44 win over Memphis
• Memphis has scored 15-plus points in 85 straight home games, the second-longest active streak in the FBS

📺 How to watch Navy vs. Memphis: Thanksgiving Week 14

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 27
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tenn.)
• TV: ESPN