MAC Best Bets for Week 11: MACtion Predictions, ATS Picks & Player Props

It's November, which means the return of MACtion every Tuesday and Wednesday for the next few weeks. It also means I've got my MAC best bets for the Week 11 slate, which features one of the conference's biggest matchups of the season.

My college football Week 11 predictions for this week's MACtion matchups include taking the Over in a conference championship rematch, fading the newest member of the conference, and backing the two best defenses in the MAC to shine.

🏈 MAC best bets & expert picks: Week 11

See all of our experts' college football picks this week based on the latest college football odds for Week 11.

• Miami (OH) vs. Ohio: Over 49.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Akron -9.5 vs. UMass (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Northern Illinois vs. Toledo: Under 42.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Chase Hendricks, WR, Ohio: Anytime TD (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Telly Johnson Jr., RB, Northern Illinois: Under 68.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Qua Ashley, RB, Ball State: Over 65.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best MAC predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

⬆️ Miami (OH) vs. Ohio: Over 49.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Taking the Over in a MACtion matchup might seem sacrelgious but this MAC Championship rematch features two of the most consistent offenses in the conference full of dynamic playmakers. With Parker Navarro, aka Timothy Chalamet's favorite QB, leading Ohio's offense, the Bobcats are top 50 nationally in both EPA per pass and rush.

Meanwhile, Miami (OH) brought in former Toledo QB, and MAC MVP, Dequan Finn to fill its need at QB, and its paying off. Finn has helped Chuck Martin's team rank No. 52 in EPA per pass with wide receiver Kam Perry - who my Miami (OH) vs. Ohio prediction focuses on - becoming one of the best big-play receivers in the Group of Five.

With the weather being a non-factor at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio, for tonight's 7 p.m. ET kick on ESPN2, the Over is in good shape with the RedHawks hitting it in five of their last seven. If they hit it again (52.38% probability), a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

🦘 Akron -9.5 vs. UMass (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Nothing says MACtion like watching two teams with a combined 3-14 record go toe-to-toe on a cold night in Ohio. But unlike UMass, Akron has shown competence this season, with Joe Moorhead finally getting his offense to click to some degree in his fourth year leading the Zips.

Behind the play of Ben Finley, who our Isaiah Sirois is backing in his UMass vs. Akron prediction, and Jordan Gant, the Zips have enough offense to hop on by the Minutemen at home. UMass has been putrid in its first season back in the MAC, with new head coach Joe Harasymiak having a ton of work to do to make this team competitive. 

UMass is allowing the second-most PPG in the MAC (35.9) and scoring the fewest PPG (11.5), and I'd say that's not a great recipe for winning football games. The Minutemen are just 2-6 ATS, and if they fail to cover again, a $10 bet on Akron pays an $8.47 profit.

⬇️ Northern Illinois vs. Toledo: Under 42.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though Toledo's shot at being one of the Group of Five College Football Playoff odds contenders is over, the Rockets have a dominant G5 defense. Vince Kehres' unit has carried Jason Candle's team this season; it's ranked No. 39 on defense by SP+ and is allowing the fewest yards per game (236.3) and PPG in the MAC (16.0).

The Rockets are having an all-time season defensively, ranking top 10 in both EPA per pass and rush, and it helps that they have the best defensive player in the conference and a likely top 50 NFL draft pick in safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. But Northern Illinois should be able to carry its weight to some degree in helping this Under cash, with the Huskies giving up just 22.1 PPG - plus their offense is borderline unwatchable, putting up 13.4 PPG.

The best defense in the MAC against the second-worst offense in the conference is a recipe for an Under, and our Mike Spector agrees with his Northern Illinois vs. Toledo prediction. NIU is already 6-2 betting the Under this season, and if they hit it again, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

💰 Best MAC player prop bets for Week 11

🔥 Chase Hendricks, WR, Ohio: Anytime TD (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio hasn't skipped a beat this season after losing head coach Tim Albin to Charlotte following the Bobcats winning their first MAC Championship in half a century. Offensive coordinator Brian Smith has kept the Ohio offense cooking in his first season as head coach, and while much of that is due to QB Parker Navarro and the return of running back Sieh Bangura, the breakout of wide receiver Chase Hendricks has been just as important.

Hendricks leads the MAC in receptions (57) and receiving yards (805) while ranking top 25 nationally in yards per route run (3.14) and contested catches (10). Against a Miami (OH) defense that's given up 14 passing touchdowns in eight games, Hendricks should be able to make a splash play in what I expect to be a high-scoring game.

The Bobcats' go-to receiver has found the end zone six times this season, including in five of his last seven games. If Hendricks puts six on the board again, a $10 bet pays a $13 profit.

⬇️ Telly Johnson Jr., RB, Northern Illinois: Under 68.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Northern Illinois has consistently churned out top MAC running backs under head coach Thomas Hammock, and this year is no different with sophomore star Telly Johnson Jr. However, Johnson has not faced a defense like Toledo's yet this season and with the Huskies being a 14.5-point underdog, NIU likely won't be able to feed him as much as they would like.

Johnson's going to have trouble blasting off against this Rockets defense. Toledo's defense is No. 1 in the country in available yards rate and No. 2 in third- and fourth-down success rate. This is truly an all-time MAC defense, and the Rockets have the third-fewest rushing yards in the country among G5 programs (93.5).

The last time Johnson went up against a high-quality run defense, San Diego State, he was held to just 53 rushing yards on 16 carries. If Toledo keeps him to Under 68.5 rushing yards - a number he's topped just three times in eight games - a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

⬆️ Qua Ashley, RB, Ball State: Over 65.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Despite Kent State overachieving this season (3-5) under the prime minister, aka head coach Mark Carney, who officially had the interim tag removed, Kent State still has one of the worst defenses in the country. The Golden Flash are ranked No. 131 in points allowed (36.5) and No. 128 on defense by SP+.

That should have Qua Ashley fired up to ball out for Ball State, with the Kennesaw State transfer being the focal point of Cardinals' head coach Mike Uremovich's run-heavy offense. Ashley ranks top 10 in the MAC in rushing yards (513), rushing yards after contact (387), forced missed tackles (20), and 15-plus-yard runs (6), which is why my Kent State vs. Ball State prediction backs him too.

He should have a huge night in Muncie against a Kent State defense allowing 205.6 rushing yards per game. Ashley has gone Over 65.5 yards on the ground in three of his last six, and if he does against the Golden Flash, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.