Kentucky vs. Louisville Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 13: Will Louisville Get Revenge?

Check out our Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction for their Week 13 college football matchup based on the best NCAAF odds.

Mike Spector

Last updated: November 25, 2023 6:41 AM EST • 6 min read

The Kentucky Wildcats visit a Louisville Cardinals team aiming to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive in the regular season finale, and we present our top Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction, guided by the best college football odds from our best college football betting sites.

Since beginning the season 5-0, the Kentucky Wildcats (6-5, 3-5 SEC) has dropped five of its last six games. In their four successive victories over the Louisville Cardinals, the Wildcats have exerted dominance, securing each win by 13-plus points, with three boasting winning margins of at least 31.

Louisville (10-1, 7-1 ACC), initially projected to finish eighth in the ACC Preseason Poll, continued its dream season by securing its first-ever appearance in the ACC Championship Game. This milestone was achieved with a 38-31 road victory at Miami, marking the Cardinals' first victory against Miami in school history.

As part of our Week 13 college football predictions, here is our best Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction: Week 13

Louisville -6.5 (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Louisville owes Kentucky a little payback for its recent dominance in this in-state rivalry. After the Cardinals won five straight and six of seven meetings from 2011-17, they have won just one since, as Kentucky has outscored them by 98 points in that span. Do not think for a second that Cardinals head coach Jeff Brohm is not knowledgeable about that recent head-to-head record, and he will look to make a statement in his first game in the rivalry.

Brohm is a big reason why we give an edge to the Cardinals as a three-star play, as he is the first coach to take two different teams to championship games in Power Five conferences in consecutive years after leading Purdue to the Big Ten Championship Game last year. Louisville showed a lot of resolve last week at Miami, outscoring the Hurricanes 15-3 in the fourth quarter when many other teams would have wilted in the heat and humidity.

Now Louisville heads home to the friendly confines of Cardinal Stadium, where it has won its last three ACC games by a combined 61 points, which does not even include a dominant 33-20 win over then-No. 10 Notre Dame. For as much flack as quarterback Jack Plummer gets for his 10 interceptions, he torched Miami’s secondary for 308 yards after leading Louisville to a top 31 ranking in Passing Success Rate, Pass PPA, and Passing Explosiveness entering last week.

The Cardinals are a balanced defense, ranking 18th in Rushing Success Rate and seventh in Stuff Rate, which is essential when facing Kentucky running back Ray Davis, whose 990 yards rank third in the SEC. Davis has been held to 61 or fewer rushing yards in four of Kentucky’s last five losses, as quarterback Devin Leary has not been able to take pressure off Davis from opposing defenses, with the Wildcats ranking in the bottom 18 in Passing Explosiveness.

Brohm had emphasized that he wanted his team to “go into the ACC championship game with a win.” While his team clinched its spot in the game with a victory, Brohm will likely be stressing the importance of playing well in this rivalry game against an SEC opponent, so they are clicking on all cylinders against Florida State.

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Kentucky vs. Louisville best odds

FanDuel (-122)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
-7	-6.5	-7	-7	-7
-110	-122	-110	-110	-110

As Louisville backers, it is much more enticing to wager on the favorites giving less than a touchdown, as the Cardinals would need to win by eight or more points to cash a spread wager at most of our best sports betting sites. Thus, we are making FanDuel our go-to shop, not because it is the only sportsbook offering a line of -6.5, but because its -122 odds are still a better value than taking the alternate spread at other sportsbooks.

Buying a half-point and wager on Louisville -6.5 at DraftKings would cost -129 in price, and that number goes as high as -138 at bet365.

Kentucky vs. Louisville odds

Kentucky vs. Louisville odds analysis

While FanDuel has remained at Louisville -6.5 since its initial opening, it has raised its price from -115 to -122. The only other reported line movement this week is at DraftKings, which raised its spread from -6.5 to -7 and has remained there since early Sunday afternoon. Early betting splits are 2/1 (68/32) in favor of Louisville, so it is more likely those sportsbooks at -7 would go to -7.5 before they came down to -6.5 or lower. Louisville is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.

All sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 50.5 points for this in-state rivalry. FanDuel opened at the lowest number of all the top sportsbooks (48.5), while BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 reached highs of 51.5 before settling back at 50.5. The total has seen much more two-way action than the point spread, as 55% of the wagers are on the Over.

Kentucky vs. Louisville game info

When: Saturday, Nov. 25 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Where: Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY
How to watch: ABC
Weather: 50 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph NNE

Kentucky-Louisville prediction made 11/22/2023 at 6:14 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”