Heisman Trophy Odds: Struggling Favorites, Surging Transfers Shake Up the Race
Six of the last eight Heisman Trophy winners have been transfers, and based on the Heisman Trophy odds following a rambunctious Week 3, it could be seven of the last nine by season's end.
While all the Heisman buzz entering the college football season revolved around returning starters like Texas' Arch Manning, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, and Clemson's Cade Klubnik, all three have fallen down the board, being surpassed by transfers leading blue blood programs.
With Oklahoma's John Mateer, Miami's Carson Beck, and Oregon's Dante Moore now leading the Heisman Trophy odds, is targeting a transfer to win the Heisman the best move for your college football picks this season?
π Live Heisman Trophy odds 2025
The latest Heisman Trophy odds; see the latest college football odds in real time.
π Week 3 odds movement & key takeaways
- LSU's Garrett Nussmeier entered Week 3 as the favorite and had Heisman Trophy odds as short as +700 after Week 1, but saw his odds lengthen to +1700 after the win against Florida
- After opening at +950 to win the Heisman Trophy, Texas' Arch Manning had odds no longer than +700 before the season; however, struggling against Ohio State and UTEP pushed him down the board to +3500
- Beating Michigan in Week 2 drastically shortened Oklahoma's John Mateer from his opening odds of +2500 to +1400, with him now sitting as co-favorite following Week 3 at +1000
- A fellow transfer, Miami's Carson Beck, is right there with Mateer at +1000 after notching two top-25 wins in three games to shorten him from his +1800 opening odds
- Nobody has fallen further down the Heisman Trophy oddsboard than Clemson's Cade Klubnik, who opened at +1100 and is now +10000 after losses to LSU and Georgia Tech
π₯ Surging transfers changing the Heisman race
π ΎοΈ John Mateer, Oklahoma (+1000)
Mateer's stats against Temple don't jump off the page - 282 passing yards, 63 rushing yards, two total touchdowns - but beating a struggling Group of Five team 42-3 isn't why he's the co-favorite to win the Heisman. His performance against Michigan in Week 2 is among the best any QB has had this season. His odds shortened to +1400 following that win, and propelled him to the top of the board.
With other SEC quarterbacks struggling, Mateer looks like he could join Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray as former transfers turned Oklahoma Heisman winners. Thanks to his dual-threat ability, which has been key to recent Heisman-winning QBs bringing home the hardware, it doesn't take much to envision Mateer bringing home the award.
Following offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State to Oklahoma has paid off in a big way for Mateer, who accounted for 44 total touchdowns for the Cougars last season. However, with his odds now paying just a $100 profit on a $10 winning bet, now might not be the best time to bet him.
Mateer ranks outside the top 25 in the country in big-time throws (5), adjusted completion rate (75.3%), QBR (77.5), and forced missed tackles (6), but if he can turn the Sooners into a College Football Playoff odds contender, he'll be in the thick of the Heisman race all season. The Sooners' Week 4 game against Auburn will be a strong indicator of whether he has a chance to win the Heisman.
π΄ Carson Beck, Miami (+1000)
Last season, Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson helped turn Washington State transfer Cam Ward into a Heisman finalist and the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. Three games into the Hurricanes' season, it looks like he might be able to do the same for Carson Beck after he went from an NFL draft odds favorite last year at Georgia to a scapegoat for Bulldogs fans.
Like Mateer, Beck has already got a major win in nonconference play against a top-25 team on his resume this season ... and actually, he has two after beating South Florida in a rainy game that was broadcast on The CW of all places. But for those who tuned into The CW between episodes of Chicago P.D., they saw an efficient and confident passer who looks like he has a real shot at reigniting his NFL draft hype and potentially becoming a Heisman winner.
The Hurricanes QB is fourth in the country in QBR (89.9), seventh in adjusted completion rate (82.7%), and has been credited with just one turnover-worthy play this season. It helps that he plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, too, and has a plethora of playmakers like Malachi Toney, CJ Daniels, and Joshua Moore.
Thanks to Beck, Miami has the shortest college football championship odds of any non-Big Ten/SEC school. With that said, I don't love Beck's odds at this price. An ACC player hasn't won the Heisman since Lamar Jackson in 2016, and Beck's lack of mobility will surely hurt his candidacy.
π¦ Dante Moore, Oregon (+1300)
Unlike Mateer and Beck, this is not Dante Moore's first season at Oregon. The former five-star recruit flew to the Ducks after a sporadic true freshman campaign at UCLA two years ago under Chip Kelly. He spent last season backing up Heisman Trophy finalist Dillon Gabriel, and took over as Dan Lanning's QB1 this season.
While some have hinted at Moore being a total surprise so far this year, the signs were there in his lone season in LA when he had an eye-popping 6.4% big-time throw rate and frequently flashed his impressive physical tools. Still, he's made a massive leap this season after learning behind Gabriel and offensive coordinator Will Stein last season.
Taking into consideration the tape and the odds, if I had to bet on any QB to be the No. 1 pick in April right now, it would be Moore at +4000. He looks the part of a franchise passer through three games with his arm talent, calmness in the pocket, and robotic-like mechanics. So while the numbers aren't necessarily Heisman-worthy yet, I'd bet on Moore, with a $10 bet paying a $130 profit, over Mateer and Beck right now.
The 20-year-old is 10th in the country in QBR (85.7), 13th in adjusted completion rate (81%), has a higher big-time throw rate than Mateer (5.9%), and plays in a more meaningful conference than Beck. If Moore can beat Penn State in Happy Valley, a matchup of the top-two ranked teams in SP+, he could jump Mateer and Beck on the board.
π§ Preseason Heisman favorites on thin ice
π― Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (+1700)
Before Manning mania fully took over the offseason, Nussmeier was the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. And when Manning stumbled against the Buckeyes, the Nuss Bus passed him once again on the board. Yet, it's hard to see the LSU star win the Heisman with the numbers he's been putting up.
While he has certainly looked like a pro-ready NFL QB, statistically, he's lagged behind, and it's led his odds to drop from +700 after the road win against Clemson to +1700 after an up-and-down performance against Florida at home.
Although Nussmeier's numbers are respectable, they're a far cry from recent LSU Heisman-winning QBs like Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, both of whom were transfers. The senior is 37th in the country in QBR (75.3), 52nd in adjusted completion rate (76%), and has the 14th-most turnover-worthy plays in the Power Four (4).
But of all the struggling preseason favorites, Nussmeier is the only one who actually looks like he can still win the Heisman - he's ninth in the country in big-time throws (9). The concern is that LSU isn't as good as it's No. 3 ranking, with the Tigers sitting No. 17 in SP+.
π Arch Manning, Texas (+3500)
There was never any shot of Manning living up to what so many talking heads expected out of him coming into the season, but even the most cynical viewers, like myself, didn't expect this out of the next in line from the first family of QBs. It's gotten so bad that there are questions about whether Manning is hurt or if Steve Sarkisian's staff messed with his mechanics (he keeps throwing side-arm).
It was easy to chalk up his underwhelming Week 1 performance against Ohio State to nerves on the road against the defending national champions. Especially after he bounced back last week against a bad San Jose State team. But what we saw Saturday against UTEP was flat-out ugly ... he looked unplayable for stretches and if not for his mobility, the Longhorns may have been on upset alert.
UTEP is ranked No. 102 in SP+ on defense, and Manning completed 44% of his throws and finished with a 26.6 QBR, that was 98th out of 115 in QBR for Week 3. You simply cannot bet on him to win the Heisman, even with a $10 bet paying a $350 profit.
The former No. 1 recruit has played two Group of Five teams ranked outside the top 100 in SP+ on defense in three games, and he's just 88th in the country in QBR (49.6), plus he's got the 11th-most turnover-worthy plays among QBs (6).
Manning's dysfunctional play is one of the most bizarre storylines of the season thus far.
π Cade Klubnik, Clemson (+10000)
If it weren't for Manning, there would probably be much more talk about how poorly Klubnik has played this season. We could chalk up his Week 1 performance against LSU to the fact that the Tigers are a top-10 team and Antonio Williams exited with an injury, but there's no explaining away how he and Clemson looked in the comeback win against Troy and the Week 3 loss to Georgia Tech.
Even if Clemson and Klubnik beat up on a not-so-intimidating ACC schedule the rest of the way, there's almost no way you could justify giving him the Heisman after the Yellow Jackets beat the Tigers on a 55-yard game-winning field goal. And though his stats aren't awful on paper, the advanced numbers are ... he's 100th in the country in QBR (43.8).
So while the idea of throwing $10 on Klubnik to win the award might be intriguing with the odds paying a $1,000 profit if he somehow wins, don't do it. That's about as reasonable a bet as your buddy telling you to throw $10 on his 30-leg can't-miss NFL parlay every Sunday.
π Week 3 Heisman stock report
π Stock up
- Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+1500): Nobody seemed to believe in Stockton, who led the Bulldogs to a wild OT comeback against Tennessee while accounting for three big-time throws and putting up the seventh-highest QBR of Week 3 (93.4)
- Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+2000): The best receiver in the country looked like it against Ohio, with 170 yards from scrimmage, two touchdowns, and six first-down receptions while averaging 4.5 yards per route run
- Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (+3500): Thanks to Reed's late-game heroics and some help from budding star Mario Craver, the Aggies beat Notre Dame on a last-second touchdown with their star QB putting up a 77.9 QBR, even if he was slightly sporadic
- Ty Simpson, Alabama (+4000): After an ugly Week 1, Simpson has been nearly flawless and just beat the breaks off Wisconsin by putting up an 89.8 QBR while throwing for 382 with an 89.7% adjusted completion rate
- Jayden Maiava, USC (+4000): We've seen Lincoln Riley turn transfer QBs into Heisman winners before, and now Maiava quietly leads the country in QBR (94.3) with the Trojans sitting No. 3 in SP+ on offense after beating Purdue behind three big-time throws from their QB1
- Behren Morton, Texas Tech (+5000): The Red Raiders built their roster in the transfer portal, but their starting QB levelling up has been just as important, with Morton leading the country in TD passes (11) and sitting 13th in big-time throw rate (7.1%)
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, California (+8000): It was worth staying up after dark to watch JKS put on another show, this time against Minnesota, as the true freshman continues to dazzle with seven touchdowns in three games
- Taylen Green, Arkansas (+15000): If the Razorbacks had upset Ole Miss, Green would be among the top 10 Heisman favorites; he's been as good as it gets with the second-highest QBR in the country (93.7) and 13 touchdowns in three games
π Stock down
- Drew Allar, Penn State (+3000): The Nittany Lions rank No. 1 in SP+ but haven't played anyone relevant, and Allar's numbers have been disappointing, with the senior ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.3)
- Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (+8000): The Fighting Irish are now 0-2 and that alone could kill the best running back in the countries chance at the Heisman, with Love sitting No. 181 in rushing yards (127) thus far
- LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (+10000): A rough start to the season for Sellers (41.5 QBR) got rougher when a hit by a Vanderbilt defender, which was called targeting, led to an injury for the Gamecocks' star
- DJ Lagway, Florida (+18000): It doesn't look like Lagway will be saving Billy Napier's job after the former five-star recruit threw five interceptions against LSU to drop his QBR down to 53.2 and give him the third-most turnover-worthy plays in the country (8)
β Heisman Trophy FAQs
Who is the Heisman Trophy favorite?
Oklahoma's John Mateer (+1000) is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. His odds imply a 9.09% probability he'll win the award.
Which transfers are Heisman Trophy favorites?
The top three Heisman Trophy odds favorites are all transfers. Oklahoma's John Mateer (+1000) transferred from Washington State, Miami's Carson Beck (+1000) transferred from Georgia, and Oregon's Dante Moore (+1300) transferred from UCLA.
What are Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds?
After opening with Heisman odds of +950 and seeing them shorten to no longer than +700, Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds lengthened to +1800 following Week 1. They then shortened to +1600, following Week 2, but plummeted to +3500 after Week 3, implying just a 2.78% probability he'll win the award.
What are the preseason Heisman Trophy favorites' odds?
The preseason Heisman Trophy odds favorites have all fallen down the board. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier opened at +900 and is now +1700, Texas' Arch Manning opened at +950 and is now +3500, Penn State's Drew Allar opened at +1100 and is now +3000, and Clemson's Cade Klubnik opened at +1100 and is now +10000.
When will the Heisman Trophy be decided?
The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will be Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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