Heisman Trophy Odds: Bet Dante Moore Now With John Mateer Out
The Heisman Trophy odds have shifted immensely with the news that Oklahoma QB John Mateer will be out for weeks after suffering a thumb injury in the Sooners' win against Auburn.
Following Week 4 of the college football season, Mateer stood alone atop the Heisman Trophy odds at +900. Now, the Washington State transfer's odds have been pulled, and Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite (+650) to win college football's top honor.
But is Mendoza really the best Heisman bet for your college football picks with Mateer injured?
🔀 Heisman Trophy odds movement & key takeaways
- Prior to Oklahoma QB John Mateer's thumb injury being announced, the Sooners' star was the Heisman Trophy odds favorite at +900 - his odds have since been pulled
- Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the new Heisman Trophy odds favorite, moving from +950 to between +650 and +750, implying a higher than 11.5% probability he will win the award
- Behind both Mateer and Mendoza on the Heisman Trophy oddsboard after Week 4, Oregon's Dante Moore saw his odds move from +1300 to as short as +900 after the Mateer news broke
- Georgia's Gunner Stockton (+1500 to +1200) and Miami's Carson Beck (+1500 to +1200) are among the other QB's that saw their Heisman Trophy odds shorten following the Mateer news
📊 Heisman Trophy odds 2025
The latest Heisman Trophy odds based on the best college football odds from FanDuel.
| Player | Heisman Trophy odds | Profit on $10 bet | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza, Indiana | +650 | $65 | 13.33% |
| Dante Moore, Oregon | +1000 | $100 | 9.09% |
| Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State | +1000 | $100 | 9.09% |
| Carson Beck, Miami | +1200 | $120 | 7.69% |
| Gunner Stockton, Georgia | +1200 | $120 | 7.69% |
| Marcel Reed, Texas A&M | +1400 | $140 | 6.67% |
| Jayden Maiava, USC | +1400 | $140 | 6.67% |
| Josh Hoover, TCU | +1400 | $140 | 6.67% |
| Joey Aguilar, Tennessee | +1400 | $140 | 6.67% |
| Julian Sayin, Ohio State | +1600 | $160 | 5.88% |
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🏆 Who to bet for Heisman with John Mateer out
New Heisman favorite: Fernando Mendoza (+650)
News broke on Tuesday, just a few days after Oklahoma beat its second top-25 opponent of the year, that Mateer broke the thumb on his throwing hand. It happened during the first quarter in the 24-17 win over Auburn, and the former Heisman Trophy odds favorite will require surgery. ESPN's Pete Thamel reported that Mateer is expected to be out for about a month.
Though Oklahoma is on a bye in Week 5, and plays lowly Kent State in Week 6, the Sooners' star QB will likely also miss the Red River Rivalry game against Texas and Arch Manning. He could also miss Oklahoma's games against South Carolina and Ole Miss. This injury effectively ends his shot at the Heisman.
That's why Mendoza is now a major favorite coming off a five-touchdown outing against Illinois in which the Hoosiers smashed a team that was viewed as a College Football Playoff odds contender by 53 points.
Mendoza is certainly an appealing candidate. He leads the country in touchdown passes (14) and ranks 11th in QBR (84.5) while being tied for the second-fewest turnover-worthy plays (1) among Power Four QBs with 100-plus dropbacks and has the highest adjusted completion rate (83.2%) among those players. But there couldn't be a worse time to bet him.
Following the Hoosiers' win over the Fighting Illini, my weekly Heisman Trophy odds column touched on how both Mateer and Mendoza are bad bets to make now. That was when the California transfer was +950 to win the award. So betting him at anything shorter than that is not worth your time.
His value is completely out the window now, coming off what will likely be his best game of the year, and the former favorite being hurt. Indiana has to play at Oregon on Oct. 11 and at Penn State on Nov. 8; those two teams both rank in the top five in SP+ on defense.
So if you're completely sold on Mendoza winning the award, you might as well wait and see how he fares against quality opponents - if he struggles, these odds will lengthen, and if he wins, these odds probably won't shorten much in a wide-open race.
🦆 Bet Dante Moore for Heisman (+1000)
For the last few weeks, I've been banging the table for Moore. He had been the most obvious value bet in the Heisman race - and still is to be the No. 1 pick with +4000 NFL draft odds - and even at +1000, he's the best player to back to win the award with Mateer out.
Immediately following Week 4, I couldn't believe his odds were +1300 with Mateer at +900 and Mendoza at +950. To me, Moore was so clearly in the best situation of the three, and still is, even when considering other options like Beck, Stockton, and Jeremiah Smith.
He has similar efficiency numbers to Mendoza - ranking top 15 in the country in QBR (83.7), turnover-worthy play rate (0.9%), and adjusted completion rate (80.2%) - while being a more aggressive passer with the 11th-highest big-time throw rate in the Power Four (6.9%). And he also has an easier schedule than Mateer, and really, any SEC QB in the Heisman hunt.
It doesn't hurt Moore's cause either that he's playing for one of the biggest college football championship odds favorites and goes head-to-head with Mendoza in a few weeks. That game is in Eugene, Ore., at Autzen Stadium, and the Ducks will likely be favored by 4.5 to 6.5 points.
The other reason to bet Moore now is because there's a chance when you wake up on Sunday morning, he'll be the new Heisman favorite. The Ducks play No. 3 Penn State on Saturday, and if the Ducks manage to pull an upset, or Moore plays well in a close loss, I could see these odds coming down to between +650 and +800.
The Ducks' last two QBs have been Heisman Trophy finalists under offensive coordinator Will Stein, and I'm all in on Moore doing what Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel couldn't and making all of Phil Knight's investments at Oregon worth it.
🗒️ Who's the public betting on?
Let's take a look at which QB is the darling of the public and owns the highest handle, courtesy of BetMGM.
| Player | % Handle |
|---|---|
| Arch Manning | 13.2% |
| Garrett Nussmeier | 9.5% |
| John Mateer | 8.2% |
| LaNorris Sellers | 7.9% |
| Carson Beck | 6.9% |
❓ Heisman Trophy FAQs
Who is the Heisman Trophy favorite?
Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (+650) is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. His odds imply a 13.33% probability he'll win the award.
How long is John Mateer out?
Oklahoma QB John Mateer, the Heisman favorite with +900 odds before his injury, is out at least three weeks with a thumb injury suffered against Auburn that requires surgery.
What are Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds?
After opening with Heisman odds of +950 and seeing them shorten to no longer than +700, Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds lengthened to +1800 following Week 1. They then shortened to +1600, following Week 2, but plummeted to between +3000 and +4000 after Week 3. Manning's Heisman Trophy odds are +4000 following Week 4, implying a 2.44% probability he'll win the award.
When will the Heisman Trophy be decided?
The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will be Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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