Heisman Trophy Odds 2025: Transfers Shine as Mateer, Mendoza, Moore Lead Race
As the first month of the college football season nears its end, the Heisman Trophy odds continue to be dominated by transfers.
Coming out of Week 4, five of the top six Heisman Trophy odds favorites are transfers, led by Oklahoma's John Mateer (+900), Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (+1100), and Oregon's Dante Moore (+1300). Those three, plus Miami's Carson Beck (+1500) and Tennessee's Joey Aguilar (+1800), are fighting to continue the trend of transfers winning the award - six of the last eight winners were transfers.
But with Mateer, Mendoza, and Moore leading the way as Heisman Trophy betting favorites, which is the best to back with your college football picks ahead of Week 5?
π Week 4 Heisman Trophy odds movement & key takeaways
- After taking down Auburn thanks to a TD run in the fourth quarter, Oklahoma's John Mateer tightened his grip atop the Heisman board with his odds shortening from +1000 to +900
- Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the biggest riser of the week following the Hoosiers' blowout win against No. 9 Illinois, which shortened the California transfer's Heisman Trophy odds from +2500 to +950
- Entering Week 4, Miami's Carson Beck was right there with Mateer atop the board, but the Hurricanes QB saw his odds lengthen from +1000 to +1500 after an iffy showing in the rain against Florida
- Despite flashy performances in Week 4, Oregon's Dante Moore (+1300), Texas' Arch Manning (+4000), South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers (+10000), and Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love (+10000) saw minimal movement
- A few QBs at non-blue bloods saw their odds shorten, with TCU's Josh Hoover (+1800), Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia (+5500), and Washington's Demond Williams Jr. (+6500) chief among them
π Live Heisman Trophy odds 2025
The latest Heisman Trophy odds; see the latest college football odds in real time.
π Top Heisman Trophy contenders after Week 4
π ΎοΈ John Mateer, Oklahoma (+900)
- Key stats: 74.2 QBR, eight big-time throws, 11 total touchdowns
- Projected stats (over 12 games): 3,645 passing yards, 570 rushing yards, 33 total touchdowns
- Toughest opponents left: vs. Texas (Oct. 11), vs. Ole Miss (Oct. 25), at Tennessee (Nov. 1), at Alabama (Nov. 15), vs. Missouri (Nov. 22), vs. LSU (Nov. 29)
No player in college football has had more "Heisman moments" than Mateer, which is why he's been atop the Heisman Trophy odds since Week 2 when he took down Michigan. Without a doubt, the Washington State transfer has been one of the biggest stories of the first month of the season, as has his offensive coordinator (Ben Arbuckle), and the Sooners wouldn't have beaten Auburn without him.
Against the Sooners' two AP top 25 opponents this season, Mateer has averaged 35 pass attempts and 14.5 rush attempts. His usage is through the roof, and there may not be a more important player to his team's success through the first four weeks than Mateer, who has Oklahoma among the 10 biggest College Football Playoff odds favorites.
But while Mateer has been a warrior carrying Oklahoma's offense - 12th in the country in big-time throws (8) and top 25 in rushing yards among QBs (207) - he's also not on pace to put up Heisman-worthy numbers (No. 36 in QBR). And Oklahoma's schedule gets a whole lot more difficult ... and they barely beat Auburn, needing a combo of Mateer's heroics and an officiating mistake.
The Sooners still have to play six top 25 teams, all of which rank in the top 20 in SP+ on defense. If Mateer somehow continues to take down SEC powers, he could very well become the third transfer QB at Oklahoma to win the Heisman during the CFP era, and turn a $10 bet into a $90 profit, but I'm just not buying it.
This isn't a good price given what's to come for the Sooners in the next two months.
π΄ Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (+950)
- Key stats: 84.5 QBR, 83.2% adjusted completion rate, 16 total touchdowns
- Projected stats (over 12 games): 2,925 passing yards, 48 total touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 228 rushing yards
- Toughest opponents left: at Oregon (Oct. 11), at Penn State (Nov. 8)
The argument against Indiana making the College Football Playoff last year was its lack of quality opponents, and that had been referenced frequently once again through the first three weeks of the season this year. Then, in Bloomington, Ind., on Saturday night, Curt Cignetti and his latest transfer star, Fernando Mendoza, beat the snot out of an Illinois team many thought would be this year's version of the Hoosiers.
It didn't look like the Illini had any fight in them by the mid-way point of the second quarter as Mendoza surgically picked Illinois apart. The Cal transfer threw more touchdowns (5) than incompletions (2) against an Illini defense that entered the game ranked No. 20 in SP+. It almost looked effortless from Mendoza, who's among the favorites to be the No. 1 pick according to the 2026 NFL Draft odds.
Unlike Mateer, Mendoza doesn't have that Johnny Manziel style that has fans going from yelling "no, no, no" to "yes, yes, yes." However, he's ruthlessly efficient and tied for the second-fewest turnover-worthy plays (1) among Power Four QBs with 100-plus dropbacks while having the highest adjusted completion rate (83.2%) among those players. And with pass catchers like Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., Mendoza should solidify himself as one of the top passers in the draft come April.
With that said, Mendoza's shot at the Heisman could all come down to how he looks against Oregon and Penn State, two of the college football championship odds favorites. If he struggles against the Ducks and Nittany Lions, and Illinois doesn't turn out to be all that good, it will be hard to justify giving the Heisman to Mendoza.
Although he leads the country in touchdown passes (14) and sits 11th in QBR, without having thrown an interception, I don't feel good about betting him to win with odds this short (paying a $95 profit on a $10 bet). The quality of the opponent will matter to Heisman voters, and the Hoosiers will once again have questions about their schedule, especially if they don't beat one of Oregon or Penn State, both of whom they have to play on the road.
π¦ Dante Moore, Oregon (+1300)
- Key stats: 83.7 QBR, 6.9% big-time throw rate, 11 touchdown passes
- Projected stats (over 12 games): 2,886 passing yards, 33 TD passes, 4 interceptions, 261 rushing yards
- Toughest opponents left: at Penn State (Sept. 27), vs. Indiana (Oct. 11), vs. USC (Nov. 22), at Washington (Nov. 29)
Last week, Moore was my favorite Heisman Trophy odds bet, and nothing that happened in Week 4 has changed my feelings. He's in the best position of the top three favorites, and his odds didn't budge - still paying a $130 profit on a $10 winning bet - despite throwing four touchdown passes in the game formally known as the Civil War.
Moore broke Oregon State's defense like a beaver dam with the Ducks' receivers floating right on by the secondary to catch perfectly feathered passes from their star QB. In the 41-7 win against Oregon's arch rival, Moore finished with the 15th-highest EPA in the country (7.5), the 10th-most big-time throws (3), and didn't commit a single turnover-worthy play.
He's as efficient as Mendoza - ranking top 15 in the country in QBR, turnover-worthy play rate (0.9%), and adjusted completion rate (80.2%) - but he's made more challenging throws, with the 11th-highest big-time throw rate in the Power Four. And he has similar opportunities to Mateer to have those coveted "Heisman moments."
While the Ducks don't have to go through the same gauntlet as the Sooners (good for Moore's stats), they have a tougher schedule than the Hoosiers, with four potential top 25 matchups in Big Ten play (good for Moore's resume).
The other massive positive on Moore's side is the fact that Oregon is viewed as a legitimate national title contender, while Oklahoma and Indiana are more viewed as CFP hopefuls. The Ducks rank in the top three in the country in SP+ and have one of the most well-respected coaches in the sport in Dan Lanning. And it doesn't hurt that offensive coordinator Will Stein has sent his last two starting quarterbacks to the Heisman Trophy ceremony (Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel).
We could know as soon as this Saturday whether or not Moore can do what Nix and Gabriel couldn't and actually win the Heisman. Oregon plays in Happy Valley against No. 3 Penn State in a white out game. That's the perfect chance for Moore to have his Heisman moment, and if he does, don't be shocked if he jumps Mateer and Mendoza to be the favorite to win the award.
π Week 4 Heisman stock report
π Stock up
- Josh Hoover, TCU (+1800): In the last scheduled Battle for the Iron Skillet, Hoover cooked SMU with wide receiver Eric McAlister, throwing five touchdowns to bring his QBR to 87.4, eighth-highest in the country
- Jayden Maiava, USC (+2500): After dark, Maiava threw three touchdowns against Michigan State, and ran for two more, to keep his QBR the highest in the country (94.3)
- Arch Manning, Texas (+4000): Questions remain about Manning, but he sure can beat up on little guys; he accounted for five touchdowns against Sam Houston and is 12th in the nation in big-time throws (8)
- Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (+5000): After starting the season as Lane Kiffin's backup QB, Chambliss has made the most of his opportunity with the injury to Austin Simmons; the Ferris State transfer has the seventh-best QBR in the country (88.5)
- Demond Williams Jr., Washington (+6000): Nobody could stop Williams in the Apple Cup, as he racked up the highest QBR of the week (99.3) and accounted for five total touchdowns, but the sophomore has his first real test against Ohio State this week
- Ahmad Hardy, Missouri (+8000): The best running back in the country through four weeks, Hardy carried the Tigers past Missouri and leads the Power Four in rushing yards (601) and the country in forced missed tackles (37)
- LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (+10000): While Sellers didn't manage to lead the Gamecocks past Missouri, he did have his best game of the season, racking up four big-time throws that had to have NFL scouts salivating
- Jonah Coleman, Washington (+15000): Overshadowed by Williams, Coleman had another productive game with over 150 yards from scrimmage and three more touchdowns to add to his country-leading total (10)
π Stock down
- Carson Beck, Miami (+1500): In Beck's defense, Florida has a legitimately good defense, and it was raining, but he really struggled and finished with a 51.4 QBR and wasn't credited with a single big-time throw
- Jackson Arnold, Auburn (+4000): Though I don't think he was ever a real contender for the award, any chance of Arnold winning is out the window now after his propensity for holding onto the ball killed the Tigers' chances against the Sooners (he was sacked 11 times)
- Devon Dampier, Utah (+6500): Utah never got into a rhythm on offense against Texas Tech and Dampier just couldn't get the ball downfield while finishing with a 50.9 QBR
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, California (+8000): The freshman phenom finally looked like a freshman in Cal's blowout loss to San Diego State, with JKS putting up an abysmal 17.4 QBR and accounting for three turnover-worthy plays
- Dylan Raiola, Nebraska (+9000): The Patrick Mahomes gimmick with Raiola overshadows how talented he is, and even though he played quite well at times in the loss to Michigan, it doesn't look like he'll be more of a contender next year
- Behren Morton, Texas Tech (+10000): Not to add insult to injury, but once Morton exited the game against Utah, the Red Raiders looked better on offense with freshman Will Hammond at the helm - Morton had a bottom 20 QBR this week (29.6)
- Taylen Green, Arkansas (+11000): There's no QB in the country doing more than Green, who should be among the top Heisman contenders, but plays for a team that lost to a Group of Five squad (Memphis) despite their QB's best efforts
- Cade Klubnik, Clemson (+30000): Uh, I think it's time we stop talking about Clemson, Klubnik, and Dabo Swinney; the Tigers are an irrelevant program this season
β Heisman Trophy FAQs
Who is the Heisman Trophy favorite?
Oklahoma's John Mateer (+900) is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. His odds imply a 10% probability he'll win the award.
Which transfers are Heisman Trophy favorites?
The top four Heisman Trophy odds favorites are all transfers. Oklahoma's John Mateer (+900) transferred from Washington State, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (+950) transferred from California, Oregon's Dante Moore (+1300) transferred from UCLA, and Miami's Carson Beck (+1500) transferred from Georgia.
Has a transfer won the Heisman Trophy?
Transfers have a rich history of winning the Heisman Trophy, with six of the last eight Heisman Trophy winners being transfers. That includes three straight transfers winning the award (Travis Hunter, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams).
What are Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds?
After opening with Heisman odds of +950 and seeing them shorten to no longer than +700, Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds lengthened to +1800 following Week 1. They then shortened to +1600, following Week 2, but plummeted to between +3000 and +4000 after Week 3. Manning's Heisman Trophy odds are +4000 following Week 4, implying a 2.44% probability he'll win the award.
When will the Heisman Trophy be decided?
The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will be Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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