Georgia vs. Florida State Prediction, Pick & Odds: Orange Bowl

We're banking on a depleted Seminoles offense to crumble under the pressure in the Orange Bowl, and we offer our top Georgia vs. Florida State prediction based on the best college football odds at the college football betting sites.

It appeared that either or both of the Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) and Florida State Seminoles (13-0) were destined for the College Football Playoff as the regular season neared its conclusion. However, neither earned the distinction, pitting them against each other in Saturday's Orange Bowl, which will serve as nothing more than a consolation prize.

For Florida State, the snub was egregious enough to get state legislators involved in the battle to reform college football's selection process. Following that disappointment, many key Seminoles players chose to opt out of this game rather than chase a perfect 14-0 campaign.

Georgia will be without important players of its own. Potential NFL first-round picks Brock Bowers and Amarius Mims will be absent. However, the Bulldogs return essentially the entire team that played against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Georgia vs. Florida State prediction and our college football picks for Saturday's Orange Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Georgia vs. Florida State prediction: Orange Bowl

Florida State team total Under 12.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

This is a relatively straightforward bet for me: I don't want anything to do with this game aside from fading the absolute worst unit on the field.

That would be Florida State's offense, which is famously the reason the team was shunned from the College Football Playoff despite a perfect 13-0 record. More specifically, the reason was the play of true freshman QB Brock Glenn, who finished 8-for-21 for 55 yards in a 16-6 win over Louisville in the ACC Championship.

Glenn is back under center for his second career start as the third choice for the Seminoles after Jordan Travis (leg) and Tate Rodemaker (transfer). And so much of the offensive talent that surrounded Glenn in that initial start won't be on the field Saturday.

The list of opt-outs for Florida State's offense would make a decent NFL squad in a few months: leading rusher Trey Benson (1,132 yards, 15 TDs), top receivers Keon Coleman (658 yards, 11 TDs) and Johnny Wilson (617 yards, 2 TDs), and star tight end Jaheim Bell (503 yards, 2 TDs) have all turned down one last chance to suit up for the Seminoles.

In total, Glenn will be without his team's top four players in rushing yards, top three in receiving yards, and top five in receptions. Yikes.

I want nothing to do with this point spread, which opened at Georgia -14 and has touched as high as -20 across our best sports betting sites. That said, the Seminoles have lost too much talent from their previously elite defense to consider betting the full game Under.

Instead, I'd much rather directly target this depleted Florida State offense against a defense that remains one of the most terrifying in college football, even if not up to the historic standards of recent years.

I'm always leery of a backdoor cover in any bowl game with questionable motivations for either side, which certainly applies here. That's why this is ultimately a three-star play for me.

If Georgia's defense takes this game remotely seriously, though, I wouldn't be shocked to see fewer than 7.5 points (+195 via DraftKings) for Glenn and Co.

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Georgia vs. Florida State best odds

DraftKings (-105)

As you can tell, the team total market isn't the most fertile during bowl season, with only three of our five best sportsbooks offering team totals at all. One of them, bet365, forces you to bet in atypical increments that don't offer a standard vig.

Both DraftKings and FanDuel are dealing a total of 12.5, but the price attached is much better with the former. DraftKings also offers a bet on the Seminoles scoring Under 1.5 touchdowns (-165), but I'm not sure the extra cushion of that wager is worth such a short price.

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Georgia vs. Florida State odds

Georgia vs. Florida State odds analysis

Georgia opened as a 14-point favorite to win the Orange Bowl, a perfectly reasonable number against a talented Florida State team with serious attrition under center. Then came the slew of Seminoles opt-outs, which turned one of the nation's only undefeated teams into an unknown C-squad.

We've seen a ton of movement on this since Christmas alone, with the Bulldogs dealing anywhere from -18.5 to -19.5 across our best sports betting apps. I'd recommend taking a look at our best sportsbook promos to see which sportsbook has the best bonus for the Orange Bowl before placing a wager.

Orange Bowl game info

• When: Saturday, Dec. 30 at 4 p.m. ET
• Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 65 degrees, 5-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation

Georgia-Florida State prediction made Wednesday at 9:45 p.m. ET.

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